Frankly I hope for this Russia to be a more prosperous and democratic place,but also for the republics in OTL Russian Federation to be independent.
A New Beginning - Our 1992 Russian Federation
- Thread starter panpiotr
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Thanks for thorough explanation for the candidates. Because of this, I decided to research them on my own. As for Zhirinovsky, he sounds like a gamer to me. He's like Taboritsky from TNO especially with his Jewish heritage lol.
Fyodorov and Yavlinsky is a good candidate to be the leaders of the New Union if we go the wholesome approach.
Many thanks for this!
Well, the first players choice for Fyodorov - Yavlinski alliance is already an indication for very promising future for Russia. Obviolusly there will be many obstacles on the way, but this TTL's Russia will be much better place to live than OTL counterpart for sure.
Well, yes, it does feel like your average Komi playthrough especially since a lot of comparisons can also be made between Makashov and TNO's Serov (who mostly is a caricature of late Stalinism)
The way is see it, Russia under their governance will be turned into a modern and developed state, with pragmatic and center-left leadership, instead of oligarchic and later Putinist rule, which completely destroyed Russian society and hope for a better future.
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What's interesting about Fyodorov is that he promised that his policies would double Russias Gdp in five years. That means that by 1996/7 Russia would have gdp of over 1 billion. That would put Russia ahead of China in 1996 and if we maintain high economic growth becoming third world economy and having high standards of living would be within reach for Russia by 2016/17.
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Good luck with that
, but rather healthy economic growth should be expected from our Dynamic Duo. And yes in longer perspective we will be easily 3rd or 4th largest economy in the world very close to Japan and Germany.As I understand from the wiki it's close to that, but not 100% true:
I only propose changing the order of works to avoid USS. SSU is much better. I'd also avoid the Hammer and Sickle. While iconic, I would change it to avoid association. Preferably to the Black Gold White over the White Blue Red
Not really, only Stan's and Belarus. After the August Coup (something we have no influence over), Ukraine and Azerbaijan also decided for independence.
Basically it's something like this
Black states want independence outright,
Orange were for new union but opted for independence after August coup.
Red were for independence before and after August coup.
But on second hand @panpiotr we should definitely have option to sign on the treaty, but...
Not really, they could be the leaders of Russia but how union was set to work is entirely different thing. Basically member states would have some common things like currency (rouble), military (maybe? it would be subjected to oversight of republics) , control of gold and diamond resources (yet republic would also be able to control all their mineral resources) and republic law would be above Union law. The republics and the central government would jointly determine military and foreign policy and work out policies on the economy, fuel, and energy resources.
Basically even if those two were leaders of the New Union they wouldn't have any real power as from the looks of it republics would have most of the power.
Then there's entire fact that republics would keep their sovereignty and would be free to establish independent trade and foreign relations with other countries.
Basically New Union wouldn't be centralized state as much as confederation of independent states similar to EU which brings me to the next point.
Technically we can form some closer intranational union right away from the start depending on government decisions.
The thing is that we could still play as Russian federation as New Union from all the descriptions won't really be state and even above named jurisdiction within federal government are up to debate and up to court.
Honestly I'm quite fine with forming EU like union with states that are willing to form such union with Russian federation but given how things are still quite unclear i must insist that Russian federation keeps its own armed forces, inherits atomic arsenal and inherits Soviet seat in UN security council, in exchange other republics would be free to keep their own armed forces with union potentially having some common army and acting as military alliance of sorts.
Generally UN security seat, Nuclear Arsenal and military are to important to be federalized to an entity that's composed of independent states.
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Agreed, but it's June, not August. Yavlinsky and Fyodorov are both Ukrainian and have plans much closer to OTL independent Ukraine. I don't really see why Ukraine would want to go off on their own with the right reforms. And maybe the fact that the Treaty doesn't decentralises the union, plus other things might even mean the coup never even starts.
If the Ukraine and the Stans stay, Belarus also stays.
F: Fyodorov is kind of strange, and promises a lot, but I think if he wins the election he can at least significantly improve Russia's intellectual capacity, which, in my eyes, has only ever gone down since 1991. About doubling the GDP? Well I don't know but he can certainly try, and he couldn't possibly do any worse than Yeltsin.
Point was that the decentralization was a done deal, Gorbachev himself proposed more decentralized form of the union and some Republics are already planning to secede, this alone guarantees August coup, not to mention at this point Soviet central government is already losing all its power.
The way i see it no matter who is in power in Moscow Ukraine will go on their own post coup and even before it their main condition to stay was for them to be sovereign state (they had referendum on it). Then there was entire dispute with other republics between central government and republics on distribution of power that couldn't be reached. Basically union was set for decentralization even before the coup.
Not to mention Yavlinsky and Fyodorov will only be in power in Russia, not in other republics, so once again we won't have influence on other republics. Interstate confederation is the best deal we can get post coup with states that choose to stay.
Of course we definitely could see Ukraine signing on the economic union with rest of the Republics together with Azerbaijan, heck we could see it happen with every other republic but the Baltics and have them become associate states, but not full-blown members.
Regarding Belarus, I believe they'll stay as long as Russia stays in , but just like other republics I believe they'll all seek more decentralized union opposed to control from Moscow.
And honestly that's fine, just keeping Stan's and Belarus in some interstate confederation with Russian is good enough , such union is better than otl outcome and Russia is bound to dominate it.
From there on we can lead process of reintegration.
But the point is that we won't get centralized state and without that I'm simply not comfortable enough to share veto power in UN, Nuclear Arsenal and military with other member states, Russia will need to have strategic autonomy until necessary level of centralization is achieved, or not.
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In any case, priority number one is actually transitioning our economy into a better system, WITHOUT causing the economy of Russia to be ruled by the oligarchs.
Seconded, though i have to Ask if we're going to be doing any... ahem... Border Readjustments in the future.
In any case, priority number one is actually transitioning our economy into a better system, WITHOUT causing the economy of Russia to be ruled by the oligarchs.
On related note to the New Union, when i think about its quite good that Ukraine may not join it as that would make Russia dominant member and Stan's and Belarus are quite likely to make more concessions to Russia.
So it's quite likely that we will be able to gain major concessions like Russia gaining Soviet Nuclear Arsenal and UN security seat (things it got otl anyway, so we may call it fait accompli), in exchange Russia will be committed to protecting Union member states. Regarding military Russia having its own military means other member states have theirs so its a nice compromise.
But truly good thing is that that union treaty did specify that republics would potentially work out economy , fuel and energy resources and besides Azerbaijan together with Stan's Russia would still inherit most of Soviet energy resources.
In case of Azerbaijan, some deal could be made in 1992 Azerbaijan/Armenian conflict. We might get Azerbaijan to join Union as a full member if we back them there.
So it's quite likely that we will be able to gain major concessions like Russia gaining Soviet Nuclear Arsenal and UN security seat (things it got otl anyway, so we may call it fait accompli), in exchange Russia will be committed to protecting Union member states. Regarding military Russia having its own military means other member states have theirs so its a nice compromise.
But truly good thing is that that union treaty did specify that republics would potentially work out economy , fuel and energy resources and besides Azerbaijan together with Stan's Russia would still inherit most of Soviet energy resources.
In case of Azerbaijan, some deal could be made in 1992 Azerbaijan/Armenian conflict. We might get Azerbaijan to join Union as a full member if we back them there.