That is quite the assumption that he has been educated primarily by the sources you mentioned.... 7_7
Alt-History Aftermath Scenarios Implied by Media
- Thread starter treefreak32
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The USA falling into a shittier state is pretty much guaranteed to leave the rest of the world in a worse state, yes.
The problem is that this never happens as a consequence of the United States being in trouble, but is simply a totally disconnected development and often without any connection to the real situation on the ground.
The kind of things we can usually see are ideas like "oh, by the way, Germany has reestablished the Third Reich and they are invading Poland again"
"After the United States withdrew its troops from Japan, they have reestablished the Japanese Empire, annexed Korea, and they are genociding the Filipinos. Oh, if the United States had kept its troops deployed, in order to kept the Japanese in check, none of this would have happened"
"By the way, there are Russian tanks rolling through Athens, because since NATO collapsed after the withdrawal of United States, that means Russia can run unchecked through Europe," etc.
"Of course, since the United States was not there to PAY FOR EUROPE'S DEFENSE, so that they could afford to WASTE THEIR MONEY ON SOCIAL PROGRAMS, Europe's economy has imploded."
"Russia, Germany and Japan should have imploded too, specially now that they are fighting wars of expansionist aggression, but don't let reality get in the way of my jingiostic fantasy about how the world is a mess without a strong American military presence abroad."
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The original point was more that for a "America falls and drags the world into chaos" situation to occur it should have been a sudden collapse, like, America being ISOTed while Gilead is left in its place.
But what we see is that Gilead did not emerge overnight, but is part of a process that has been going on for years.
I find it hard to believe that the rest of the world will sit idly by and not try to decouple their economy from the American economy now that they are becoming THAT.
Decoupling your entire economy is easier said than done, and I'm not that convinced that the alternatives of a world where the US went clerical fascist are going to be hunky-dory either.
Deleted member 200746
The problem with that is that, assuming the U.S and China have the same levels of trade as in real life, China is pretty screwed as well. To be frank, I think several people on this thread are severely underestimating just how devastating the fall of the U.S. would be on the world, while also severely overestimating the ability and willingness of the international community to decouple from America economically. That's my two-cents, I don't want to derail this thread any further.
That's why I pointed out that it would be a process of years, just as Gilead is not something that arises suddenly. It's not like it will be possible to realistically say "starting Wednesday all trade with the United States is suspended" and expect any consequence other than a huge economic setback, assuming the other members of your country don't simply decide to ignore you.
Likewise, it is highly unrealistic to expect it to be a "I'm making America a theocratic fascist regime" scenario and for such a thing to be done in less than 24 hours. It would take years too.
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Realistically it would take years yes. But Gilead just suddenly sprung up in a span of maybe a few months at most between when the white house and capital hill were bombed and when the whole Handmaid thing begins to happen along with the mass executions etc. So no, the world had no time at all to decouple nor reoriente themselves.
Then the formation of Gilead is going to be taken as a coup/civil war by the a lot of the world. The economy will shutter esp with the loss of NYC, but it won’t collapse at first.
What’s the fundamentalists reach across the US? If it’s not shore to shore then the rest of NATO is funnelling aid/arms to the rest of the US to retake the east coast. Gilead falls quite quickly and the world gets back to normal-ish.
If they do somehow control the whole US then it’s still not game over for the world economy, but it is more disrupted. Still expect funds for resistance movements to pour into the country even as refugees pour out.
Edit: I looked it up on https://the-handmaids-tale.fandom.com/wiki/Geography_of_Gilead I am surprised Gilead lasted that long unless they nuked anyone who attacked them.
Edit 2: Gilead fell according to https://the-handmaids-tale.fandom.com/wiki/Republic_of_Gilead_(Novel) in ‘a decade’, so I suspect it didn’t last long enough for the world economy to collapse, but it would realine for sure.
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They are too busy trying to keep their economy from exploding. Unless, of course, the author is going to use the usual device "well, of course, since the United States has withdrawn its troops, that means that China has somehow developed the economic and military power to invade everything they have within reach without this entailing any negative consequences". And this is assuming that Gilead not goes ballistic for China (the encarnation of all they hate) attacking his neighbors...
Basically all this.
But what I see in the thread is the assumption that your typical "Patriotic Fiction" scenario would occur where the United States falls into a period spanning between 24 hours minimum and 30 days maximum.
Which somehow causes the allies to implode so quickly that they do not even have time to try to take measures to stop the fall, if they do not immediately cut all their ties with the United States (which, as has been pointed out, would be impossible to do so quickly, and in any case, in this kind of narrative always it seems to harm others more).
While as a third separate POD the "usual suspects" do not suffer any kind of problem and can afford to wage wars of expansionist and imperialist aggression (the mentions of the lack of American troops abroad and that China will dominate East Asia)...
It hasn't been mentioned yet, but I suppose at some point someone will make the case that China is supporting Gilead, ignoring the fact that Gilead will undoubtedly be such a violently anti-Chinese regime that it would be perfectly believable that the nuclear bombings were actually China responding to the nuclear attacks that Gilead launched at them...
Which I see it's more "let's turn HMT into your American Civil War II AH scenario" than anything else.
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Erich Ludendorff dying on November 11th, 1918 after gassing the entire German general staff, including Von Hindenburg in Wonder Woman
The book and the show are different, and it's pretty obvious the writers of the show nor the author really took consideration over world building outside of the US or what would happen to the rest of the world.
But to say the world economy will just collapse is an understatement. The world will take generations to ever recover from the US economically ceasing to exist, too much finance and trade is engaged with the US.
But that's impossible. There is absolutely no way Gilead would ever maintain the US's GDP, between women being completely barred from their workplace, the mass executions, the mass exodus of dual citizens and immigrants who were allowed to leave. (whom I should add are estimated to make up upwards of a 1/3rd of the US's total population).
Between dual citizens, and non US citizens of all legal statuses the US/Gilead would lose up to 100 million people alone. Then you have the mass executions which are another several to tens of millions, the complete banning and disenfranchising women and the implied (at least partial) deindustrializing of the continental US, not only that but Gilead is completely isolationist and in the show they struggle to even engage with trade with anyone.
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No you're right, I don't see wars/a world war happening immediately due to the fact that everyone's economically just completely went to the shitter. But I do see countries realigning themselves/seeking deterrence ASAP. Stuff like South Korea and Japan (probably also Taiwan) buildings nuclear weapons just out of self preservation.
Yes, in several previous posts I saw that the ideas were defended that the fall of the United States means that a lot of regional/global wars would immediately break out/resurgent China and Russia begin to invade their neighbors... which makes me seems quite doubtful.
But it's something I see too often. And I would say that it even sounds racist, because the implication is that nations are incapable of maintaining peace on their own if there are no contingents of American troops deployed as an interposition force.
I also objected to the assumed notion that the rest of the world would not try to take action to prevent or at least cushion the disaster, but would collapse so quickly that they would not have time to do anything. Which I believe overestimates to ridiculous extremes the influence of trade and finance on the functioning of nations, and assumes that nations would implode immediately instead of trying to move forward, as has historically been done in economic crises
Losing the United States will undoubtedly be a severe blow to the rest of the world, but I think too many people tend to assume that it would be a scenario equivalent to an all-out nuclear war or something even worse. For example, all those immigrants would surely help their new nations get ahead...
Although of course if Gilead decides that they are going to launch the missiles because they want the rest of the world to die that is where it ends.
Assuming that they are going to be integrated well.
Well no, but you can't tell me that wide swathes of the world would not leap at the opportunity of American isolationism. North Korea absolutely would try to start shit with the South for one.
It will depend a lot on the country but in principle it should be relatively easy for them to integrate.
The other countries can try to do something... assuming the economic collapse doesn't leave them shivering, because what I usually see is that the assumption is that the economic collapse would only affect the Western/NATO members, while the usual suspects are not affected by the economic problems at all. and they are in such good financial health that they can afford to start wars of aggression.
On North Korea, I'd say that would rather depend on China allowing them to try something, although since the usual trope is China becoming resurgent and aggressive that shouldn't be a problem.
Ten bucks says that this will easily be the biggest topic for the site in 2024. The film comes out in 2024: