Butterflying the execution of Louis XVI and his family is going to cause a lot of other butterflies in the short-term, as it was the act that exarcebated tensions and accelerated the declaration of war. Louis is definitely going to ask his brother-in-law to bail him out, and Austria is already concerned about French radicalism and expansionism. However, the UK and Russia just came from a war, so it's going to be interesting to see how this plays out.
So Evident a Danger: The Consequences of War between Britain, Prussia and Russia in 1791
- Thread starter Gwrtheyrn Annwn
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It seems Louis and the family are safe for now but with the country being in such alarmed mood, it won't last sadly...
That was a well written update, by which I mean I felt a genuine surge of irritation and a desire to sharpen a razor.
Depends on how it plays out. No Decleration means that everyone can assume he was kidnapped, at least for now.
The issue is, if he gets recaptured, or worse, gets to Royalists and then unleashes the Decleration.
Absolutely right, it was hinted at the end of the first chapter that Britain and Russia may well not get involved in a big war in France and this is exactly why. But as you say, Louis XVI's continued presence arguably makes a stronger case for Austrian intervention. How that will end is another matter entirely, and whether Louis XVI finds himself in a palace in France or in Vienna, as was discussed before, will probably not be his decision.
Safe for now indeed, now being the key word! Between the national panic that will surely ensue and the tendency of Louis XVI and Marie Antoinette to make the worst decisions, both in different ways, this will almost certainly not go well for here out.
As @Knightmare said below, it does depend how it plays out. A successful Flight to Montmedy does not immediately save him but does at least make a relatively obscure retirement, which Louis XVI would probably enjoy in all honesty, more likely perhaps than an execution.
Thank you..I think
And this is the aforementioned tendency to make the worst decisions! Although his allies/sympathises could perhaps still argue that even the Declaration was the product of kidnappers in this scenario but it will definitely make it much harder.
This war can only have one outcome: the Austrians get their asses kicked. Once that it becomes clear that Louis is going to be restored when the Austrians reach Paris, the French are going to implement the mass national conscription system that OTL won them the war and roll through the Austrian Netherlands in two years. I can only see the Austrians winning if they defeat the French Army when they are weak and demovilized to attempt to rush to Paris, but even then they are on their own and I doubt they have the logistical capacity to go that far. Maybe the King being alive motivates the counterrevolutionaries a bit more, but even then they won't be beating the treason allegations: their King is literally colliding with a foreign power.
Overall, I think Louis is going to end his days in a fancy palace in Vienna, crying in his memoirs that he wanted reforms but he got screwed over by the evil radicals.
Chapter 2 - Part 4 - "The King forbids his ministers to sign any order in his name..." Testament Politique de Louis XVI, p. x
New
Part 4 - "The King forbids his ministers to sign any order in his name..." Testament Politique de Louis XVI, p. x
Louis Auguste Le Tonnelier, Baron de Breteuil, 'First' Minister of Louis XVI's government at Montmedy, and a contemporary cartoon of the National Guard
The Duke of Choiseul had been chosen to command Bouillé's advance guard almost solely because of his aristocratic title. It was a poor choice. Choiseul had limited military experience at the age of 31 and shared many of the worst traits of his class, especially in regards to the lower orders. He would nearly ruin the entire plan through his domineering attitude towards the local peasants that he and his cavalrymen encountered during their mission to escort the King. Those peasants had been told that Choiseul and the soldiers had gathered in their tiny village to meet, and then escort, a strongbox full of military pay back to the frontlines. The suspicious locals, however, soon came to believe that they had come to compel them to pay feudal dues that they had been avoiding since the revolution had started. Choiseul proved remarkably poor at disabusing them of that notion as he heavy-handedly dismissed their concerns and protests. Fortunately for the Duke, the royal party had suffered no major delays and arrived only an hour late, from the inevitable issues in any journey, before the stand-off could come to blows.
Having narrowly avoided that disaster, Choiseul and his soldiers fell in with the royal cavalcade and departed Somme-Vesle. Behind them, they left any number of suspicious locals convinced and ready tell the incoming Parisian messengers that whatever the soldiers had been escorting, it wasn't a strongbox. These messengers were playing a hopeless game in trying to catch up with the royal part, and indeed many were going in the wrong direction from Paris. Those that were heading along the right route, and would soon encounter the people of Somme-Vesle, were already collecting news from the locals as they passed and could soon piece together that the King's party was heading towards the border under armed guard. This lent credence to both interpretations of the event, the armed guard could be either to protect the King or to hold him in. Bouillé's use of mercenary foreign soldiers, presumed to be more loyal and reliable after the mutiny at Nancy, also suggest foreign involvement to those unfamiliar with the intricacies of 18th century military recruitment. The growing military guard, as further detachments continued to join along the route, did not prevent Louis XVI from continuing to speak to his people whenever the carriages were forced to stop. It did, however, make the disguise of being a Russian noblewoman and her entourage much less convincing and, before long, Louis XVI had been recognised at Sainte-Menehould and Varennes. The inhabitants of these towns could do little to stop the military procession, and had no idea of the news from Paris, responded in a variety of ways.
Some asked where the King was going and why he had left Paris, some attempted to ask if he needed rescue, others simply fell to their knees in awe. The presence of their King among them was too much for many to bear. Those who did receive an answer from the itinerant King were invariably told the same thing, that Louis XVI had escaped the villainous Parisian mob to go somewhere safe and secure from whence he could resolve the crisis without interference and intimidation. This answer seem to have mollified and confused the questioners in equal measure, but the presence of an armed guard and the subsequent polarisation in France make people's genuine reactions in the moment impossible to determine. The arriving Parisian messengers generally received garbled versions of the events in which the witnesses were keen to have had as little involvement as possible, beyond seeing the King, his family and his guards. One enterprising blacksmith from Sainte-Menehould did pluckily attempt the rescue of the King by riding to rouse the National Guard at Clermont-en-Argonne. This did result in a minor confrontation at Clermont-en-Argonne but, by this time, the cavalry escort was too substantial and the guardsmen quailed and fled. Ironically, if they had stood their ground, they may well have prevailed as Louis XVI had already ordered the his guards not to spill any French blood and would perhaps have prevented them from charging down the guardsmen. [1]
In the event, the chance was lost and the party carried on unmolested to Varennes where, a little way beyond the town Louis XVI finally met his chief collaborator, the Marquis de Bouillé, who had ridden out personally to meet his King with a further cavalry escort. As far as Louis XVI was concerned, everything had now effectively been achieved and it would be a simple matter to reach Montmedy, summon the National Assembly there, or perhaps to Metz, and smoothly agreed a proper solution to the political crisis without the interference of the Parisian mob. This may well appear to be blind optimism, and in a very real sense it was, but the main reason for this belief was his utter conviction in almost all problems being caused said mob and their restrictions on his actions. [2] His allies, even his wife, were less sure. Marie-Antoinette, Bouillé and his plenipotentiary/'first' minister Louis Auguste Le Tonnelier, Baron de Breteuil were more reactionary in their opposition to the French Revolution but also more realistic in what needed to be done. All three strongly supported calling openly for foreign military intervention, especially to remind Leopold II of his promise to help, and had little faith that the National Assembly would even answer a royal summons from Louis XVI, let alone compromise with him. In truth, none of the three really wanted the Assembly to, they hoped to tear up what had happened so far and to start from scratch in the traditional absolutist model. No sooner had Louis XVI escaped the restrictions of Paris than he was thrown straight into the restrictions of his allies.
Louis XVI, having arrived at Montmedy, would at first resist their pressured. He had indeed made appeals to Austria and Prussia but received only vague promises, making him little inclined to try again so soon. The Habsburgs had promised to march to his aid if he could be his own man again but now that the time had come, it was unclear if they would really deliver. And besides, Louis XVI wanted nothing less than to begin a civil war between his people and had told Anne Charles de de Montmorency-Luxembourg, Duke of Piney-Luxembourg during the struggle for the creation of the National Assembly that, "I do not want any man to perish in my quarrel." [3] And so instead Louis XVI took the path he truly hoped would be the peaceful one. His Declaration to the French People was officially issued and dispatched to Paris on the 16th June, along with a royal summons for the National Assembly to make haste to the presence of the King.
[1] He did the same IOTL.
[2] As he believed IOTL as well.
[3] An OTL quote.
Louis Auguste Le Tonnelier, Baron de Breteuil, 'First' Minister of Louis XVI's government at Montmedy, and a contemporary cartoon of the National Guard
The Duke of Choiseul had been chosen to command Bouillé's advance guard almost solely because of his aristocratic title. It was a poor choice. Choiseul had limited military experience at the age of 31 and shared many of the worst traits of his class, especially in regards to the lower orders. He would nearly ruin the entire plan through his domineering attitude towards the local peasants that he and his cavalrymen encountered during their mission to escort the King. Those peasants had been told that Choiseul and the soldiers had gathered in their tiny village to meet, and then escort, a strongbox full of military pay back to the frontlines. The suspicious locals, however, soon came to believe that they had come to compel them to pay feudal dues that they had been avoiding since the revolution had started. Choiseul proved remarkably poor at disabusing them of that notion as he heavy-handedly dismissed their concerns and protests. Fortunately for the Duke, the royal party had suffered no major delays and arrived only an hour late, from the inevitable issues in any journey, before the stand-off could come to blows.
Having narrowly avoided that disaster, Choiseul and his soldiers fell in with the royal cavalcade and departed Somme-Vesle. Behind them, they left any number of suspicious locals convinced and ready tell the incoming Parisian messengers that whatever the soldiers had been escorting, it wasn't a strongbox. These messengers were playing a hopeless game in trying to catch up with the royal part, and indeed many were going in the wrong direction from Paris. Those that were heading along the right route, and would soon encounter the people of Somme-Vesle, were already collecting news from the locals as they passed and could soon piece together that the King's party was heading towards the border under armed guard. This lent credence to both interpretations of the event, the armed guard could be either to protect the King or to hold him in. Bouillé's use of mercenary foreign soldiers, presumed to be more loyal and reliable after the mutiny at Nancy, also suggest foreign involvement to those unfamiliar with the intricacies of 18th century military recruitment. The growing military guard, as further detachments continued to join along the route, did not prevent Louis XVI from continuing to speak to his people whenever the carriages were forced to stop. It did, however, make the disguise of being a Russian noblewoman and her entourage much less convincing and, before long, Louis XVI had been recognised at Sainte-Menehould and Varennes. The inhabitants of these towns could do little to stop the military procession, and had no idea of the news from Paris, responded in a variety of ways.
Some asked where the King was going and why he had left Paris, some attempted to ask if he needed rescue, others simply fell to their knees in awe. The presence of their King among them was too much for many to bear. Those who did receive an answer from the itinerant King were invariably told the same thing, that Louis XVI had escaped the villainous Parisian mob to go somewhere safe and secure from whence he could resolve the crisis without interference and intimidation. This answer seem to have mollified and confused the questioners in equal measure, but the presence of an armed guard and the subsequent polarisation in France make people's genuine reactions in the moment impossible to determine. The arriving Parisian messengers generally received garbled versions of the events in which the witnesses were keen to have had as little involvement as possible, beyond seeing the King, his family and his guards. One enterprising blacksmith from Sainte-Menehould did pluckily attempt the rescue of the King by riding to rouse the National Guard at Clermont-en-Argonne. This did result in a minor confrontation at Clermont-en-Argonne but, by this time, the cavalry escort was too substantial and the guardsmen quailed and fled. Ironically, if they had stood their ground, they may well have prevailed as Louis XVI had already ordered the his guards not to spill any French blood and would perhaps have prevented them from charging down the guardsmen. [1]
In the event, the chance was lost and the party carried on unmolested to Varennes where, a little way beyond the town Louis XVI finally met his chief collaborator, the Marquis de Bouillé, who had ridden out personally to meet his King with a further cavalry escort. As far as Louis XVI was concerned, everything had now effectively been achieved and it would be a simple matter to reach Montmedy, summon the National Assembly there, or perhaps to Metz, and smoothly agreed a proper solution to the political crisis without the interference of the Parisian mob. This may well appear to be blind optimism, and in a very real sense it was, but the main reason for this belief was his utter conviction in almost all problems being caused said mob and their restrictions on his actions. [2] His allies, even his wife, were less sure. Marie-Antoinette, Bouillé and his plenipotentiary/'first' minister Louis Auguste Le Tonnelier, Baron de Breteuil were more reactionary in their opposition to the French Revolution but also more realistic in what needed to be done. All three strongly supported calling openly for foreign military intervention, especially to remind Leopold II of his promise to help, and had little faith that the National Assembly would even answer a royal summons from Louis XVI, let alone compromise with him. In truth, none of the three really wanted the Assembly to, they hoped to tear up what had happened so far and to start from scratch in the traditional absolutist model. No sooner had Louis XVI escaped the restrictions of Paris than he was thrown straight into the restrictions of his allies.
Louis XVI, having arrived at Montmedy, would at first resist their pressured. He had indeed made appeals to Austria and Prussia but received only vague promises, making him little inclined to try again so soon. The Habsburgs had promised to march to his aid if he could be his own man again but now that the time had come, it was unclear if they would really deliver. And besides, Louis XVI wanted nothing less than to begin a civil war between his people and had told Anne Charles de de Montmorency-Luxembourg, Duke of Piney-Luxembourg during the struggle for the creation of the National Assembly that, "I do not want any man to perish in my quarrel." [3] And so instead Louis XVI took the path he truly hoped would be the peaceful one. His Declaration to the French People was officially issued and dispatched to Paris on the 16th June, along with a royal summons for the National Assembly to make haste to the presence of the King.
[1] He did the same IOTL.
[2] As he believed IOTL as well.
[3] An OTL quote.
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Apologies for the slowness of the update, I've had a very busy time recently with work but hopefully will be back on track soon!
In a word, yes. Whilst everyone else is distracted in Eastern Europe, Louis XVI goes for, and succeeds, at the worst possible option for internal stability. From here, chaos will naturally ensue.