AHC: A Soviet/Weimar German Alliance in an Alt-WWII

[the Imperium of Canada]

So you're challenge here is to present a scenario where the Weimar democracy survives the turmoils of the 20s and 30s and is involved in an alternate Second Great War, but instead of fighting against some inexplicably super expansionist Soviet Union like is usually presented in these types of scenarios, but is instead, at least loosely, actually allied with the USSR against France/Italy/Britian/ect.

My best guess for a PoD to get something like this is a successful partitioning of Poland between the young Soviet Union and Germany in 1920, which I would assume would both be a legitimizing factor for the young democracy in Germany and help strengthen pre-existing ties between the two powers, for purposes of undermining the Versailles Order.

 

[Citycat]

I can see the Weimar Republic and the USSR both invading and occupying Poland. While London and Paris will be unhappy, this would not necessarily lead to a World War or British or French involvement at all.

The Weimar Republic had limited objectives, and wasn't as diplomatically incompetent as Nazi Germany. Unlike the Nazis with their repeated lies and broken promises, where they destroyed their own credibility leaving Britain and France with no choice but to declare war. This wouldn't be an issue with Weimar Germany. There is a big difference between trying to take parts of Poland vs trying to conquer all of Europe up to the Ural Mountains. I think a surviving Weimar Germany could have achieved the objective of retaking the land from Poland it lost in WWI, without triggering a world war.

 

[Bellacinos]

While the Weimar Republic and the USSR actually enjoyed a lot of cooperation In the 1920s and I can see them being trading partner and forming an alliance, I just can’t see a scenario where they find them
At war with the allies.

 

[the Imperium of Canada]

I can see the Weimar Republic and the USSR both invading and occupying Poland. While London and Paris will be unhappy, this would not necessarily lead to a World War or British or French involvement at all.

The Weimar Republic had limited objectives, and wasn't as diplomatically incompetent as Nazi Germany. Unlike the Nazis with their repeated lies and broken promises, where they destroyed their own credibility leaving Britain and France with no choice but to declare war. This wouldn't be an issue with Weimar Germany. There is a big difference between trying to take parts of Poland vs trying to conquer all of Europe up to the Ural Mountains. I think a surviving Weimar Germany could have achieved the objective of retaking the land from Poland it lost in WWI, without triggering a world war.

I mean I wasn't saying that the Soviets winning in Poland in 1920 immediately start another world war. I was imagining something like France falling to fascism later down the line and aligning with Italy

 

[Garrison]

So you're challenge here is to present a scenario where the Weimar democracy survives the turmoils of the 20s and 30s and is involved in an alternate Second Great War, but instead of fighting against some inexplicably super expansionist Soviet Union like is usually presented in these types of scenarios, but is instead, at least loosely, actually allied with the USSR against France/Italy/Britian/ect.

Well allowing that the Great Depression still happens to minimize changes and Weimar stumbles through then the German armed forces are going to be far weaker than OTL since I can't see any Weimar government spending the percentage of GDP Hitler did on rearmament, nor are they likely to gamble so recklessly over the Anschluss, the Sudetenland or Poland. My guess is a war in the west does look more like WW1, with far less in the way of armoured forces available to the German Army and the old school leadership retaining control with no Fuhrer for the likes of Manstein to bypass the chain of command with their radical ideas.

 

[RedSword12]

Well allowing that the Great Depression still happens to minimize changes and Weimar stumbles through then the German armed forces are going to be far weaker than OTL since I can't see any Weimar government spending the percentage of GDP Hitler did on rearmament, nor are they likely to gamble so recklessly over the Anschluss, the Sudetenland or Poland. My guess is a war in the west does look more like WW1, with far less in the way of armoured forces available to the German Army and the old school leadership retaining control with no Fuhrer for the likes of Manstein to bypass the chain of command with their radical ideas.

If the Germans and Soviets are allies, I don't think the Germans will have such a problem with supply of tanks. The Soviets have so many they'll have plenty to spare, and the Germans have plenty of stuffs to trade for them. And although OKH initially rejected Manstein's idea as too radical, over the course of their wargames Halder gradually shifted the schwerpunkt further south towards Sedan, and it is difficult to avoid the conclusion that it would likely have converged on something akin to Manstein's original conception (which itself was not the exact same as what was eventually adopted).

 

[Lalli]

I don't think Weimar Republic and Soviet Union being ally with recognsible way in alternate WW2. They had friendly relations in 1920's but already early 1930's they begun to be pretty different even if them had their own intrests. Them should be more similar and Germany should has even worse relations with the west.

Perhaps if Poland loses its war against Soviet Russia in 1920 and being divided would bit help. But that is not yet necessary. You should avoid Hindenburg's presidency and Stalin's premiership. So let Ebert to live longer so he could serve two full terms. And Stalin is killed during RCW and Lenin is succeeded by Kamenev-Zigowiev-Bukharin troika. Germany not recover very well and is still leftist but revanchist and can't really fix things with former Entente. On some reason France and Britain decide declare war to Germany (yes, they would are aggressors) and then Soviets begin to be worried that they are next.

Yes, this is not really plausible scenario but whole idea is not very plausible on itself anyway.

 

[Garrison]

If the Germans and Soviets are allies, I don't think the Germans will have such a problem with supply of tanks. The Soviets have so many they'll have plenty to spare, and the Germans have plenty of stuffs to trade for them. And although OKH initially rejected Manstein's idea as too radical, over the course of their wargames Halder gradually shifted the schwerpunkt further south towards Sedan, and it is difficult to avoid the conclusion that it would likely have converged on something akin to Manstein's original conception (which itself was not the exact same as what was eventually adopted).

But you are assuming that the Germans will still invest heavily in the Panzer divisions and the issue is whatever way you cut it the armed forces of Germany are going to be weaker than OTL without some Hitler analogue pouring 20% of GDP into rearmament. The Germans kept defaulting on payments to the Soviets for resources OTL, I can't see how they do better here. Also given the state of the Red Army in the late 1930s I hardly see them as a plus, especially given that I cannot see Germany willingly allowing large numbers of Soviet troops on German soil. Remember that most of the German leadership outside of the Nazis was still anti-communist and would have like to have restored the Brest-Litovsk treaty.
Is such an alliance possible yes? Is it going to meet some people's 'Deutschland uber Alles' fantasies, pretty much no.

 

[RedSword12]

But you are assuming that the Germans will still invest heavily in the Panzer divisions and the issue is whatever way you cut it the armed forces of Germany are going to be weaker than OTL without some Hitler analogue pouring 20% of GDP into rearmament. The Germans kept defaulting on payments to the Soviets for resources OTL, I can't see how they do better here. Also given the state of the Red Army in the late 1930s I hardly see them as a plus, especially given that I cannot see Germany willingly allowing large numbers of Soviet troops on German soil. Remember that most of the German leadership outside of the Nazis was still anti-communist and would have like to have restored the Brest-Litovsk treaty.
Is such an alliance possible yes? Is it going to meet some people's 'Deutschland uber Alles' fantasies, pretty much no.

There's a lot of things which aren't necessarily going to be the same, so very little can be ruled out. We can't argue so much about a battle of France if we don't even have a baseline for what the political situation at time of war is beyond the very basic Democratic Weimar Germany and Soviet Union vs. something like France, Britain, Italy.

The Germans kept defaulting on payments to the Soviets IOTL because they were operating in bad faith and because their resources were being sucked up by the war effort and other priorities. A long-established trading relationship is a better basis for cooperation. At the end of the day there's not so much we can assume, given that the only substantive parameters are "Democratic Weimar allies with the Soviets." It's not as simple as, "WWI 2.0," because the political context may well and probably would lead to a very different conflict.

 

[Garrison]

There's a lot of things which aren't necessarily going to be the same, so very little can be ruled out. We can't argue so much about a battle of France if we don't even have a baseline for what the political situation at time of war is beyond the very basic Democratic Weimar Germany and Soviet Union vs. something like France, Britain, Italy

No, you can rule out the German military being as strong as OTL, unless you are suggesting the Weimar government will also bankrupt the country paying for rearmament?

 

[RedSword12]

No, you can rule out the German military being as strong as OTL, unless you are suggesting the Weimar government will also bankrupt the country paying for rearmament?

The balance of forces may be similar, different, etc. My point is that we shouldn't necessarily expect a World War I reenactment, since the political context we do have is so bare-bones that it can accommodate a very wide range of possibilities.

 

[Garrison]

The balance of forces may be similar, different, etc. My point is that we shouldn't necessarily expect a World War I reenactment, since the political context we do have is so bare-bones that it can accommodate a very wide range of possibilities.

And I am saying they will be different and the German forces will be weaker, because no one else bar Hitler is willing to bankrupt the country rearming.

 

[Flavius Iulius Maiorianus]

I always found the idea of a Weimar/USSR/KMT axis to be a cool one. The problem is actually starting a war.

 

[NoMommsen]

@Garrison ... only that ITTL the "GDP" will be much higher than OTL, therefore the money spent on armament - even if in terms of worth nearing OTLs - will be of well lower percentage of.

With since the early twenties ongoing "good" probably compared to OTL even intensified relations the Great Depression itself might be of a lesser impact for Germany (though still neavy and its populace won't know it could fare worse even than IITL).
It shouldn't be forgotten that Germany was the top trade partner of the Soviet-union well into 1932 despite the Brüning following goverment (inheriting the efforts of its predecessor) only in May 1932 renewd their trade contract. By this time the Soviet-union was also deeep in the dark red zone of its balalnces and esp. its debts reagrding Germany.
With Hitler taking the helm theses relations broke down to a mere paying scheme - in gold - for the existing soviet debts which in 1936/37 were mainly repaid. Such won't happen ITTL. It seems to me rather possible that the named trade relations would at least continue on their pre 1931/32 level if not be expanded "helping" the SU to further develop their treasures of resources - for an ... 'adequate' share on such resources for the german industry.

Also I don't understand your assumption that the weimarian military would NOT focus on mobile warfare what was exactly what they were trained in and for even WW 1 and were desparate to redevoled with modern means.

 

[Jonah Carter]

I could easily see Weimar Germany and the USSR being drawn into an alliance, it just makes sense for both parties. The Soviet Union is diplomatically isolated and needs technical support for rapid industrialization. Germany is being pushed around by Britain and France and needs some sort of counterbalance, as well as the raw resources the USSR can offer. Also, if this Germany still wants to rearm (even if it's on a more limited scale), Soviet support would be just as useful as OTL.

I think the real limiting factor is the anti-communism baked into much of the upper Weimar military/political leadership. Still, two nations don't necessarily have to like or trust each other to collaborate toward a common goal.

If the battle lines are Germany/USSR vs Britain/France/Italy, I think the Soviet-German alliance is clearly favored. Italy is hardly a first rate military power, and France had a substantial communist base that might easily serve as collaborators and fifth columnists. Britain can hold out indefinitely, but assuming their enemies' demands are reasonable, is the political will really there for that?

 

[Silvaria]

You need a far more left-wing Weimar. Ironically, you'd get this by averting the Bavarian Socialist Republic, which was a spectacular, apocalyptic failure that went a long way towards discrediting much of the center-left. Even then, you need some sort of alt-Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact where Germany and the Soviet Union divide up Poland, which provides a casus belli to the West (this prob requires Trotsky to win out). So basically you have a Weimar political establishment that is more willing to play ball with the Soviets, the militarist right grins and bears it because they want to win Round 2 with France, and you have a Soviet-Weimar Axis that's basically carving up Eastern Europe in an act of joint imperialism.

 

[Bellacinos]

Could this potentially butterfly the manhattan project without the major brain drain and anti semetism from nazis? (As this removes ultimate trump card for US in any eventual WW2 scenario.)

 

[RedSword12]

You need a far more left-wing Weimar. Ironically, you'd get this by averting the Bavarian Socialist Republic, which was a spectacular, apocalyptic failure that went a long way towards discrediting much of the center-left. Even then, you need some sort of alt-Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact where Germany and the Soviet Union divide up Poland, which provides a casus belli to the West (this prob requires Trotsky to win out). So basically you have a Weimar political establishment that is more willing to play ball with the Soviets, the militarist right grins and bears it because they want to win Round 2 with France, and you have a Soviet-Weimar Axis that's basically carving up Eastern Europe in an act of joint imperialism.

The hardline reactionary Reichswehr was among the most pro-Soviet-collaboration factions in Weimar Germany. And as to partition of Poland, Lenin was planning to hand back the formerly German part of the Polish state, when the Red Army seemed on the verge of overrunning the country.

 

[TheLastKnight]

Perhaps the Reichswehr launches a coup and creates a military dictatorship or Kurt von Schleicher somehow is able to hold together a government and remains chancellor.