AHC: Deny Ukraine's Bread Basket to Russia

[John Fredrick Parker]

What if the fertile fields of Ukraine were never absorbed into the Russia Empire? First of all, what is the latest PoD by which this might be achieved (preferably after 1400)? And second, how does this, by itself, change the course of European history?

For example, can the Russian Empire ever really establish itself if they're, presumably, not as agriculturally productive? And depending on who controls these fields instead (eg Poland-Lithuania), how does their additional food power affect the development of Europe in the centuries to come? Or do multiple (no Russian) powers take control of these fields over the course of history? And if they are selling this extra grain and food to western Europe (more than towards the east), how does this in itself affect European development?

 

[alexmilman]

What if the fertile fields of Ukraine were never absorbed into the Russia Empire?

Below is the map of the Ukrainian soils. The darkest are what you probably mean by “the fertile lands”.

Below is the map of the Tsardom with the green line being a border by 1678 and light brownish/pinkish being the first chunk of “Ukraine” the Tsardom got. The area «Слободская Украина» to the left was Tsardom’s border region (hence “Ukraine”) since XVI, populated by the Russian settlers with the first Ukrainians appearing there in 1730’s as the refugees from the right bank Ukraine so for answering your question it is irrelevant.

By comparing two maps you can easily find out that most of the lands you are talking about were not Russian when state was “establishing” itself (whatever this means). They remained a part of the PLC until the 2nd Partition by which time the Russian Empire became the Great Power. Now, the fertile piece on the east - Black Sea coast - was a part of the CH which also was annexed only at the time of CII and before this the territory to the immediate north of it was a subject to the regular Crimean raids and simply could not use most of its agricultural potential.
In other words, these lands as a factor of “establishing” the empire were pretty much irrelevant.
Economically, the area became seriously important only somewhere in the XIX century when the wheat exports started moving up in the priorities list of the Russian exports.
The relevant statistics can be found on the web (found it long ago for y TL) but this takes time so find the articles and browse through them so, sorry, you are on your own if you are truly inteested.

First of all, what is the latest PoD by which this might be achieved (preferably after 1400)?

Any time before mid XVII when the PLC turns itself into a functional state.

And second, how does this, by itself, change the course of European history?

Have surviving PLC as a functioning state surely would change the European history. How much and which way will depend on the numerous factors.

For example, can the Russian Empire ever really establish itself if they're, presumably, not as agriculturally productive?

See above. This happened in OTL (RE became an acknowledged big European power during the 7YW) and the list of the XVIII exports had been headed by the navy-related items even in the early XIX. Until Odessa was firmly established as a port, the main grain (rye) exports had been happening via the Baltic ports.

And depending on who controls these fields instead (eg Poland-Lithuania), how does their additional food power affect the development of Europe in the centuries to come?

They owned the territory for centuries but did not get an access to the Black Sea and eventually lost an access to the Baltic Sea. Anyway, in a pre-steam age transportation of the big volumes of grain all the way to the Baltic coast would be a slow and costly affair.

Or do multiple (no Russian) powers take control of these fields over the course of history?

Who? The Crimeans were not into agriculture of that type, the Ottomans were far away, Moldavians were too few, the Austrian expansion that far is unlikely and the ASBs are verboten. 😜

And if they are selling this extra grain and food to western Europe (more than towards the east),

Start with figuring out the logistics of that process without the Black Sea ports.

how does this in itself affect European development?

Comparing to them getting the wheat in OTL scenario in the late 1880s?

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

Much thanks @alexmilman ; I can see now the kind of PoD we're talking about is a lot later than OTL.

I will say this much -- if we managed a "No Partitions of Poland" scenario with an 18th Century PoD, I would guess that we're close enough to the industrial revolution that logistical concerns about how to get the grain to European markets are likely to be a moot point not too long into the TL. That said, a scenario where the Russian Empire isn't looking to export agricultural goods to the extent they did OTL, and European powers can buy grain exports from "less rival" countries like Poland, could be interesting in their own right.

 

[alexmilman]

Much thanks @alexmilman ; I can see now the kind of PoD we're talking about is a lot later than OTL.

I will say this much -- if we managed a "No Partitions of Poland" scenario with an 18th Century PoD, I would guess that we're close enough to the industrial revolution that logistical concerns about how to get the grain to European markets are likely to be a moot point not too long into the TL. That said, a scenario where the Russian Empire isn't looking to export agricultural goods to the extent they did OTL, and European powers can buy grain exports from "less rival" countries

IMO the picture of Russia being always hostile to the rest of Europe is more than less a fantasy: most of the XVIII -XIX century it was somebody’s ally.

like Poland, could be interesting in their own right.

In the later times the grain competition was coming from Argentine, Canada and the US. In the last case it eventually resulted in the black blizzards and related disasters.
Getting agricultural production from the Southern Ukraine to the Baltic ports even with the steamships not be an easy task and by rail it would require a well-industrialized PLC.
Anyway, a lesser reliance upon grain may result in increasing oil-based exports and more attention to the industry in general or some other scenarios.

 

[marcinL]

IMO the picture of Russia being always hostile to the rest of Europe is more than less a fantasy: most of the XVIII -XIX century it was somebody’s ally.


In the later times the grain competition was coming from Argentine, Canada and the US. In the last case it eventually resulted in the black blizzards and related disasters.
Getting agricultural production from the Southern Ukraine to the Baltic ports even with the steamships not be an easy task and by rail it would require a well-industrialized PLC.
Anyway, a lesser reliance upon grain may result in increasing oil-based exports and more attention to the industry in general or some other scenarios.

I think that conquering mouths of Dniestr, Boh and Dniepr, or even getting an agreement with the Turks and Tatars would be more feasible than dragging millions of tons of wheat and rye upriver, through the swamps, some other rivers and canals that need to be built first and finally to ports in Gdańsk, Elbląg, Memel and Riga

 

[alexmilman]

I think that conquering mouths of Dniestr, Boh and Dniepr, or even getting an agreement with the Turks and Tatars

While this is not ASB in the terms of violating the laws of physics, etc., it is IMO very close to it in the terms of a practicality. You’d need the PLC with a strong royal power Russian style to mobilize a huge military effort needed for defeat of the Ottomans and Crimeans so far away from the main Polish territories in the name of a cause of a zero interest to most of the Polish and Lithuanian nobility. AFAIK, in OTL the Polish magnates of the Right Bank Ukraine had been doing quite well without any grandiose schemas so probably they would be marginally enthusiastic to pay for them as well: the OTL excursions into Moldavia, including one during the Great Ottoman War, suffered from the shortage of funds.
Then you’d need to build the ports (Ochakov proved to be unsuitable as a big port), provide enough of a population in and around, figure out nuances of the shipping upriver and, in the case of the Dnieper, portage through the Rapids.
Then convince the Ottomans to guarantee a free passage through the Straits (in OTL it took a very serious beating) and, to convince the Tatars not to raid the area and loot the caravans going up and down the Dnieper (fat chance).

BTW, what time frame do you have in mind? In OTL grain became a major export item from Russia only in the XIX century. In the XVII it was too down at the list of the export items to worth trouble, in the XVIII it was lagging behind the naval materials, in the 1st half of the XIX it was still not a big deal (the British Corn Laws) and jump in the exports started only in 1840s prompted by a fast population growth in Europe (outside Russia). Look as the exports graph below.

Anyway, the premise of the OP is somewhat questionable: now, without the alleged “bread basket”, Russia is the greatest grain exporter in the world.

would be more feasible than dragging millions of tons of wheat and rye upriver, through the swamps, some other rivers and canals that need to be built first and finally to ports in Gdańsk, Elbląg, Memel and Riga

(a) AFAIK, the area was producing wheat, not rye. Rye was grown in European Russia and exported from there.
(b) AFAIK, in OTL none of the ports listed was in the Polish hands well before the time when the grain export become a big item so you’d need to change history massively. 😉

 

[marcinL]

While this is not ASB in the terms of violating the laws of physics, etc., it is IMO very close to it in the terms of a practicality. You’d need the PLC with a strong royal power Russian style to mobilize a huge military effort needed for defeat of the Ottomans and Crimeans so far away from the main Polish territories in the name of a cause of a zero interest to most of the Polish and Lithuanian nobility. AFAIK, in OTL the Polish magnates of the Right Bank Ukraine had been doing quite well without any grandiose schemas so probably they would be marginally enthusiastic to pay for them as well: the OTL excursions into Moldavia, including one during the Great Ottoman War, suffered from the shortage of funds.
Then you’d need to build the ports (Ochakov proved to be unsuitable as a big port), provide enough of a population in and around, figure out nuances of the shipping upriver and, in the case of the Dnieper, portage through the Rapids.
Then convince the Ottomans to guarantee a free passage through the Straits (in OTL it took a very serious beating) and, to convince the Tatars not to raid the area and loot the caravans going up and down the Dnieper (fat chance).

BTW, what time frame do you have in mind? In OTL grain became a major export item from Russia only in the XIX century. In the XVII it was too down at the list of the export items to worth trouble, in the XVIII it was lagging behind the naval materials, in the 1st half of the XIX it was still not a big deal (the British Corn Laws) and jump in the exports started only in 1840s prompted by a fast population growth in Europe (outside Russia). Look as the exports graph below.
View attachment 880209
Anyway, the premise of the OP is somewhat questionable: now, without the alleged “bread basket”, Russia is the greatest grain exporter in the world.

(a) AFAIK, the area was producing wheat, not rye. Rye was grown in European Russia and exported from there.
(b) AFAIK, in OTL none of the ports listed was in the Polish hands well before the time when the grain export become a big item so you’d need to change history massively. 😉

I though of an earlier period. In 16-17th century grain from Poland was quite important for the Netherlands, even if most of it was eventually turned into beer.

A strong power of some kind in PLC is sort of a prerequirement for denying Russia Ukraine, unless Russia somehow implodes on its own (imho this is "stronger PLC thread" in disguise). Stronger PLC has better chances of happening earlier rather than later.

Getting to the Black Sea is tricky but not exactly undoable, it's about 300 kilometers from Polish border, and there is a number of rivers going in the right direction. I dont know about 17th century, but by the end of PLC that region (Bracław voivodeship) was very densely populated. It should be easier for Poland to supply their troops there, than it was historically for Russia which, i think, had their otl staging areas way further away. Especially if Poland happens to have their puppet ruling Moldavia.

Anyway, just having the PLC strong enough to prevent Russia from grabbing left bank Ukraine and then the rest of ruthenian lands should be enough to fulfill the op's request, though training polish nobles to behave like adult responsible people and not a bunch of wild drunk brainless monkeys would be a challenge. With time the Khanate would go the way of dinosaurs and Turks would be evicted from the premises as well, and if not, they would be smart enough to allow for transfer of through the Black Sea.

 

[Zireael]

I agree that a stronger PLC would likely fulfill OP's idea

 

[alexmilman]

I though of an earlier period. In 16-17th century grain from Poland was quite important for the Netherlands, even if most of it was eventually turned into beer.

Which means that the whole Ukrainian scheme simply does not make commercial sense to start with: greater supply would mean lower prices for the Polish grain producers and, anyway, the Dutch needs of a beer are not unlimited.

However, the initial question actually is about Russia, not Poland, and I already explained that for Russia the Ukrainian grain, and grain in general, was not a major export item until at least 1840s and that the Russian territories without Ukraine can (as of now) produce enough grain to be world’s #1 exporter. So, whatever it was or could be for Poland is interesting but quite irrelevant within this context and plausibility of the schemas you are talking about had been discussed in an ongoing TL about Pitt’s idea so I don’t see the reason to repeat what was already said.

 

[alexmilman]

I agree that a stronger PLC would likely fulfill OP's idea

The “idea” was a question about how Russia would manage without Ukraine.

 

[marcinL]

Which means that the whole Ukrainian scheme simply does not make commercial sense to start with: greater supply would mean lower prices for the Polish grain producers and, anyway, the Dutch needs of a beer are not unlimited.

However, the initial question actually is about Russia, not Poland, and I already explained that for Russia the Ukrainian grain, and grain in general, was not a major export item until at least 1840s and that the Russian territories without Ukraine can (as of now) produce enough grain to be world’s #1 exporter. So, whatever it was or could be for Poland is interesting but quite irrelevant within this context and plausibility of the schemas you are talking about had been discussed in an ongoing TL about Pitt’s idea so I don’t see the reason to repeat what was already said.

True, but nobody can deny Russia Ukraine in 19th century

 

[marcinL]

The “idea” was a question about how Russia would manage without Ukraine.

Having Ukraine and not having Ukraine, is two Ukraines put together. Give or take.

 

[alexmilman]

True, but nobody can deny Russia Ukraine in 19th century

Well, it is up to the OP, not me. 😂

 

[Zireael]

The “idea” was a question about how Russia would manage without Ukraine.

It would manage just fine IMHO, maybe it would expand southward instead of westward? Or maybe Russian Alaska?

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

The “idea” was a question about how Russia would manage without Ukraine.

That was one element of the OP, which is pretty definitively answered; I’m more than fine now with the thread focusing on how a surviving PLC, holding Ukraine’s black soil, affects European food trade as a whole in the 19th Century.

 

[alexmilman]

That was one element of the OP, which is pretty definitively answered; I’m more than fine now with the thread focusing on how a surviving PLC, holding Ukraine’s black soil, affects European food trade as a whole in the 19th Century.

IMO, the 1st step to answering this question would be a definition of the regional geopolitical situation in the terms of who owns what. For example, not getting the left bank Ukraine has little to do with the Russian conquest of the Baltic provinces. Would it prevent the 1st Partition and Prussian control of the access to Danzig? What would be the PLC position on the South and what the alt-PLC look like as a state? Etc. Start from the Cossack Wars and then go through the GNW, etc. to at least Nappy, to reposition the alt-PLC in Europe. 😉

Assuming that it is just there and close to OTL in mid-XIX, how this schema would affect the rest of Europe starting from the 1840s? Effect will be close to zero: Ukrainian lands would not produce much more or much less grain than they were producing in OTL so why anybody in Western Europe would care which state that grain comes from? RE in the later XIX - early XX was increasing production mostly by expanding the agricultural lands outside of the former PLC territories (closest would be Kuban region and then Western Siberia) but the alt-PLC can’t do that.

The Black Sea-based schema requires numerous components most of which are outside of a plausible domain even for a realistically stronger PLC.

 

[Gabingston]

As others here have said, the most plausible alternative to Russian control of Ukraine is Polish control. The Ottomans could work as well, at least for the Tatar-inhabited south.

 

[alexmilman]

As others here have said, the most plausible alternative to Russian control of Ukraine is Polish control.

Of course: it owned most of the modern Ukraine until mid-XVII.

The Ottomans could work as well, at least for the Tatar-inhabited south.

As they did in OTL until second half of the XVIII. As long as this arrangement exists, a big part of the black soil area is unavailable for the agriculture and the part to the south of the Dnieper is pretty much uninhabitable.