AHC: Henry VIII's Great Matter is Moot

How can, with no PoDs prior to 1521, you have a scenario where (1) Katherine does not become pregnant again (she didn’t OTL), (2) Henry VIII still joins the League of Cognac as OTL, (3) the Church of England does not break with Rome (at least not under Henry), (4) Cardinal Wolsey does not fall from power, and (5) Anne Boleyn does not produce a male heir to the English throne?

Having Katherine of Aragon die of sweating sickness in 1528 could be one way of accomplishing, but I wonder if it’s the best PoD for these purposes? As it happens, there was discussion on that particular PoD fairly recently:
If Katherine of Aragon had died at some point during the Great Matter (like, in 1528 or 1529) and Henry VIII and Anne Boleyn’s marriage is recognized as valid by the Catholic Church, who are the most likely candidates for marriage to Princess Mary say, around 1532-1533?

@FalconHonour @isabella @ordinarylittleme @Tudorfan @Kellan Sullivan
Quite possible actually: just have the 1528 sweat kill her off. Then, Anne is legitimate to everyone. Mary marries into either Scotland or France. Personally, I prefer France, because the idea of an Anglo-French union would be a fun TL as half of Europe would collectively start shitting bricks. Scotland, however, is likelier.
First an Anne Boleyn who was wed to Henry in 1529 would be pretty likely to give him at least of couple of sons, second Henry VIII would take every precaution for preventing the succession of a French grandson. Still a Scottish match for Mary is likelier
I realize Scotland is likelier. I just said a marriage into France would be a fun idea (and well we both know Anne like her predecessor had terrible fertility, with several miscarriages)
what about Mary marrying Hans of Denmark, son of Christian II, favourite nephew of Karl V. It's likely that had he lived, he would've either wound up as governor of the Netherlands or king of Denmark (had his father's bid to have him elected in succession to Frederik I succeeded), but he's "unimportant" enough on the European landscape (similarly to the duque de Beja). Only, he's a king's heir.
This is probably be an unpopular opinion, but Anne's miscarriages were stress-related IMO. She had three miscarriages in one year- when the old wives' tale about miscarriages is that you need to wait at least as long as you were pregnant before trying again, to give the body chance to recover. - which means that she had, if that's true, six pregnancies. Same as Katherine.

KoA's lifestyle was also to blame. Her asceticism, fasting etc. The difference was that Kat's was self-inflicted, Anne's was external factors she couldn't control. There's no reason that, with no "stressors" (Henry having torn down the church and made himself a pariah to the world for setting aside his wife to marry his mistress), Anne wouldn't be able to birth (at least) one healthy male. Especially since, if one looks at Henry's (purported) bastards, in the 1520s, all he was doing was fathering sons (think Katherine Carey and Etheldreda Malte are the only girls)
This is an interesting idea, and really unique! I do always wonder how different things might have been if Hans had lived longer. And I wonder how a match between him and Mary would turn out.

I actually agree with you that its likely that Anne’s miscarriages were stress-related. Though I’m of the opinion that Katherine’s miscarriages weren’t entirely because of her lifestyle; I think it’s likely that it was a combination of stress and lifestyle choices, such as her continuous fasting. Never heard about Anne having three miscarriages in a year, though. I’ll have to look into that more.

Is it that a marriage into France is unlikely to happen at all? Or is it just that a Scottish match is likelier? Because I also kind of think that a French match would be fun.
Where did you get that one from? She had Elizabeth in 1533, a miscarriage in 1534 and another one in 1536, right?
Unlikely to happen unless Mary had at least two healthy younger brothers
What's to say that Anne "raised in France" Boleyn will not think that Mary in France is a grand idea since she is so likely to have sons in this TL by your own estimate?
Henry will NOT marry Mary in France unless he has at least two legitimate healthy sons. He would not trust Francis to not try mischiefs if his succession is not secure… Engagements were one thing, actual matches another one… Still Mary would be 16 only in 1532 (and the Dauphin would be 14 in that year, so just of the legal age for marrying) and Anne would have already the time for giving birth to two children. If Mary’s actual marriage is planned for 1534 then Henry would likely have already a Prince of Wales and a Duke of York in the cradle and no reason for annulling/delay the match, unless he favored a Spanish alliance over a French one and so Mary would be married to John of Denmark…
my apologies, two "potential" miscarriages in 1534 (not three), since the dates mentioned are too far apart to be the same pregnancy (January 1534 and September 1534) if she conceived in November 1533 (the earliest she and Henry would've been intimate). Then there's the one in 1535 - if it's not just the result of a misfiled letter, since it's too early to be the boy she miscarried in January 1536 - which makes four potential children between January 1533 and January 1536.
What I'll add to that -- if Anne marries Henry earlier and isn't brought to power specifically by the Great Matter, her first child could still be a daughter; there's no guarantee her subsequent pregnancies would be more successful than they were OTL, or that she'd be under significantly less stress than OTL (since whatever the religious context, she's not royally born herself and so is completely at her husband's mercy). For that matter, Henry is likely to wait at least a time before marrying Anne (grieving protocols and all that), and I can actually see a scenario where his appetite for Anne diminishes once she's no longer "forbidden fruit".

What do you guys think?
 
For that matter, Henry is likely to wait at least a time before marrying Anne (grieving protocols and all that), and I can actually see a scenario where his appetite for Anne diminishes once she's no longer "forbidden fruit".
by the time of a 1528 death for Katherine, Henry's gone too far for Anne to even consider walking away without a loss of face. Only way he marries a foreign second wife is if Anne also dies. Not to mention that the foreign candidates are not exactly thick on the ground: France's best candidate (Marguerite d'Angoulême) is too old; Karl V's sisters are taken orhave no interest in remarriage, as are Joao III's. The most prestigious (depends who you ask) royal match he might make is Hedwig of Poland. After that, everyone's daughters/nieces are too young.

Even the second-stringers (Lorraine, Cleves, Saxony) are too young. So Anne likely becomes Henry's second wife.

her first child could still be a daughter
of course

there's no guarantee her subsequent pregnancies would be more successful than they were OTL
of course

or that she'd be under significantly less stress than OTL (since whatever the religious context, she's not royally born herself and so is completely at her husband's mercy
while I've no doubt she'd be under stress, it'd likely be the perception of her. She'd be the "evil queen", "evil stepmother", the other woman that Henry VIII married. As to her being at Henry's mercy...not necessarily. In fact, far less at his mercy than OTL.

It's an interesting conundrum, but essentially, having torn down the church/law in order to marry her, Anne was very much at Henry's mercy OTL. He'd essentially, to quote one biographer, "inverted justice" to get his own way. And since he'd done it once, why not again. Every one of her judges had reasons to find her guilty (if only for the reason that they knew if they didn't, Henry would come after them next). As much as I dislike St. Thomas More, he had a valid point when he pointed out that making the king the head of the church was a slippery slope. Because it essentially made Henry's power (both over church and state) absolute. That meant there was no recourse for Anne.

It sounds ironic in the extreme, but Anne's chief line of defense would be that she isn't French or Habsburg-adjacent. France would back her because a) until 1537 they have no alternate candidate for Henry and b) it means that Henry can't marry a Habsburg/proxy. The Habsburgs would support her because a) she might be pro-French* but she's not French, b) her influence can be bought (unlike a French princess). The pope would support her (theoretically) because she's Henry's wife in the eyes of God and the Church**. Sure, none of them might particularly like Anne, but Henry has more to lose (in his PR abroad) if he drags her through a sham trial. Louis XII's annulment procedings (because that is what Henry will have to go through here), Enrique IV of Spain's, Lucrezia Borgia's from her Sforza husband...were all deeply humiliating on the public stage and all three men's public image took a knock as a result. Someone with Henry's ego will not wish to be remembered as "Henry the Impotent".

My opinion is that, around the second or third pregnancy failure (either a miscarriage or another daughter), her Uncle Norfolk pulls her aside and suggests she offer Henry an annulment. The argument Norfolk uses to persuade her "look at what he did to Katherine". Contrasted to OTL, where Anne essentially got a bighead (seeing everything Henry had done for her), she might be a little less high-handed here.


*how pro-French Anne would be TTL is open to debate. OTL it was...awkward. She championed the French because the Habsburgs supported Katherine. With no Katherine in the picture, her Francophilia might be tempered somewhat.
**the ambiguity- that half of Europe didn't accept her as Henry's lawful wife- was what allowed Henry to flex OTL. Knowing that nobody was coming to save her. Here, regardless of whether they like Anne or not, neither the Protestants nor the Catholics can deny that she is Henry's true and lawful wife. Henry behaves as he did OTL towards her (and many going "gee, isn't that how he treated Katherine too?") and he's got a PR nightmare on his hands. OTL, most of them were just "meh" because they could just say that they didn't regard the marriage as legitimate. Here, it's a bit harder to look away.
 
Religious policy aside, would England see any change in foreign policy, during the 1530's and 1540's, in this scenario? For example, would Henry remain neutral during the war over Milan in 1536? Would he still go to war again with France, Scotland, et el in the 1540's (allying with the Emperor in the process)? (We can assume Cardinal Wolsey lives at least to 1540 TTL.)
 
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Well, if he gets an annulment with Anne by 1535, Henry could marry the daughters of the French King.
35 is too early. Madeleine de Valois is only 15yo and her dad isn't letting her marry Henry if he barely let her marry James. London's fogs would be even more deadly than Scotland's cold. That leaves Marguerite, who'd only be 11yo. Whereas, by 1535, both Dorothea and Kristina of Denmark and Maria of Viseu are all marriageable age or bordering on it. Anne miscarrying her 1536 son (or a stillborn son), followed by an annulment followed by a suit to the emperor doesn't sound unthinkable
 
Think 1530 was pretty much the limit for Wolsey. He had ill-health throughout most of the second-half of the 1520s IIRC.
He was also under a lot of stress in those years, and being banished from court didn't help his health either; I don't think it's inevitable that the cardinal dies at the age of 57, and that he could guide English government for a few more years yet.

What's interesting to think about is how this guidance changes things like English foreign policy -- could Henry be more willing to work with the French to contain Habsburg power in Europe (even as much as Henry romanticizes his predecessor's wars in France)? And what might Europe (short term) look like in such a scenario?
The good news is that we might skip over More and go straight from Wolsey to his pet, Cromwell.
That much I can also see.
35 is too early. Madeleine de Valois is only 15yo and her dad isn't letting her marry Henry if he barely let her marry James... Whereas, by 1535, both Dorothea and Kristina of Denmark and Maria of Viseu are all marriageable age or bordering on it
I mean, they're all about the same age; if the idea is that the King of Denmark or Portugal would be less protective of their daughter than the King of France, the corollary to that is a princess from Denmark or Portugal is less of a "get" for Henry.
 
He was also under a lot of stress in those years, and being banished from court didn't help his health either; I don't think it's inevitable that the cardinal dies at the age of 57, and that he could guide English government for a few more years yet.

What's interesting to think about is how this guidance changes things like English foreign policy -- could Henry be more willing to work with the French to contain Habsburg power in Europe (even as much as Henry romanticizes his predecessor's wars in France)? And what might Europe (short term) look like in such a scenario?

That much I can also see.

I mean, they're all about the same age; if the idea is that the King of Denmark or Portugal would be less protective of their daughter than the King of France, the corollary to that is a princess from Denmark or Portugal is less of a "get" for Henry.
Dorothea, Kristina and Maria would all been Habsburg proxies offered by their uncle. Maria‘s father is dead while the father of Dorothea and Kristina has lost his crown and is also imprisoned since the end of 1531
 
Dorothea, Kristina and Maria would all been Habsburg proxies offered by their uncle. Maria‘s father is dead while the father of Dorothea and Kristina has lost his crown and is also imprisoned since the end of 1531
What if, hypothetically, Henry is not inclined towards allying with the Hapsburgs at the time he's looking for a third wife?
 
Then he would go for a French proxy as Madeleine‘s health is quite bad and Marguerite too young… meaning a Bourbon or Guise girl or someone like Anne of Cleves
Then he probably marries Amalia of Cleves or Marie of Guise.
I would love it if Henry married Mary of Guise TTL, but if she still marries the Duke of Longueville, she'd have to be widowed first; he little sister Louise may also be of age, but can't find much on her. Anne of Cleves is also cute historically, though depending on how the religious situation in Europe and England develops, that might be tricky.
 
I would love it if Henry married Mary of Guise TTL, but if she still marries the Duke of Longueville, she'd have to be widowed first; he little sister Louise may also be of age, but can't find much on her. Anne of Cleves is also cute historically, though depending on how the religious situation in Europe and England develops, that might be tricky.
The Bourbon sisters also could work: Mary was born in 1515, Marguerite in 1516 and Madeleine in 1521, while their Guise cousins were born in 1515 (Mary) and 1520 (Louise)
 
The Bourbon sisters also could work: Mary was born in 1515, Marguerite in 1516 and Madeleine in 1521, while their Guise cousins were born in 1515 (Mary) and 1520 (Louise)
Mary of Bourbon would be the most likely choice of her sisters, just as Mary of Guise is the “best” choice of her siblings; so I’d say Mary of Bourbon or Mary of Guise would be the most likely options, with Anne of Cleves also being a possibility.

What does this mean for English foreign policy in the 1530’s, and how does that affect Europe on the whole?

---CONSOLIDATE---
For example, would Henry remain neutral during the war over Milan in 1536?
what's in it for him?
Is there anything England wants from the continent around this time? Does anyone know what the pro-French, anti-Hapsburg faction of Renaissance England saw as being English interests?
 
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By 15376/1537, their cousin, Anne of Lorraine might be more likely
edit: she was more likely. Since she was one of the ladies proposed for a potential fourth wife for Henry OTL. Not sure if it was France or Karl V that was willing to endorse her, but considering that she basically married two imperial loyalists one after the other, it might've been a meeting of the minds
 
edit: she was more likely. Since she was one of the ladies proposed for a potential fourth wife for Henry OTL. Not sure if it was France or Karl V that was willing to endorse her, but considering that she basically married two imperial loyalists one after the other, it might've been a meeting of the minds
Keep in mind who at that point Mary of Bourbon was dead, Marguerite of Bourbon was married or at least engaged, Madeleine of Bourbon was likely already in convent, Marie of Guise was among the candidates (like Anne of Lorraine, Christina of Denmark, Maria of Viseu, Anne and Amalia of Cleves) while Louise of Guise could have been already engaged and Renèe of Guise possibly already in convent. Still Marie of Bourbon was offered as proxy to James V and Mary of Guise was among the OTL candidates for Henry VIII so they or their younger sisters could very well be among the choices offered to Henry VIII by Francis I together with Anna of Lorraine. If Henry remarried around 1530 the likeliest bride for him would be Isabelle of Navarre as French proxy
 
Is there anything England wants from the continent around this time? Does anyone know what the pro-French, anti-Hapsburg faction of Renaissance England saw as being English interests?
Peace with France. Likely security around the Pale of Calais, which helps economically and with trade. Calais isn't the huge entrepot it was in the last centuries, but it's still an important gateway.

Henry can probably get another pension from the French King (the Treaty of the More in 1525 stipulated a £20,000 per annum pension for the king). Henry may also be able to deal with any issues surrounding Mary Tudor's French dowry, which was wrangled over for years and years, as late of ~1525. If this is occurring post-1533 and Mary Tudor has died, he can perhaps get some more money in his pocket.

Most importantly: a check on the rising power of Spain / Emperor Charles V.

An alliance with France would mostly be aimed at containment of Charles V, not necessarily territorial expansion. I don't ever recall Francis offering Henry VIII any territory during their brief alliances, but he was more than willing to pay the king (and Wolsey too....) pensions, often significant sums, given that Henry VIII's annual income was small (prior to the dissolution of the monasteries, it averaged about £80-90,000; for reference, Henry VII's annual income was around £142,000 in the last year of his reign). There's also the fact that Henry VIII's sole outpost on the continent, Calais, is in a rather indefensible position. The land offered no defensive position, and the city relied on fortifications which could be expensive to maintain. I suppose Henry VIII could look to expand the Pale within Picardy on the Low Countries side, but all that means is taking additional towns and cities that are just as indefensible and would require fortification as well. Boulogne is a pretty good example of how the Tudor policy of trying to expand the Pale played out IOTL.
 
Peace with France. Likely security around the Pale of Calais, which helps economically and with trade. Calais isn't the huge entrepot it was in the last centuries, but it's still an important gateway.

Henry can probably get another pension from the French King (the Treaty of the More in 1525 stipulated a £20,000 per annum pension for the king). Henry may also be able to deal with any issues surrounding Mary Tudor's French dowry, which was wrangled over for years and years, as late of ~1525. If this is occurring post-1533 and Mary Tudor has died, he can perhaps get some more money in his pocket.

Most importantly: a check on the rising power of Spain / Emperor Charles V.

An alliance with France would mostly be aimed at containment of Charles V, not necessarily territorial expansion. I don't ever recall Francis offering Henry VIII any territory during their brief alliances, but he was more than willing to pay the king (and Wolsey too....) pensions, often significant sums, given that Henry VIII's annual income was small (prior to the dissolution of the monasteries, it averaged about £80-90,000; for reference, Henry VII's annual income was around £142,000 in the last year of his reign). There's also the fact that Henry VIII's sole outpost on the continent, Calais, is in a rather indefensible position. The land offered no defensive position, and the city relied on fortifications which could be expensive to maintain. I suppose Henry VIII could look to expand the Pale within Picardy on the Low Countries side, but all that means is taking additional towns and cities that are just as indefensible and would require fortification as well. Boulogne is a pretty good example of how the Tudor policy of trying to expand the Pale played out IOTL.
It’s quite a shame that despite the dissolution Henry didn’t know how to save and thus left a huge debt for his successors.
 
Is there anything England wants from the continent around this time? Does anyone know what the pro-French, anti-Hapsburg faction of Renaissance England saw as being English interests?
not necessarily what they want but what they're being offered is another matter:
Emperor Maximilian had first floated the idea of enfeoffing Henry VIII with the duchy of Milan. Karl V and Henry VIII discussed this again in the 1520s, this time as a potential dowry for Henry Fitzroy should he marry the emperor's bastard daughter, Margaret.

And, per @Nuraghe (hope they don't mind me sharing it):
you will never believe me, but I have to tell you what I read / discovered today, so a little context first, we are in the years between the 30s and 40s of the 16th century, where we are depends on the place where the presence live broadcast from Charles V is requested immediately, what is the funniest part of the whole thing ( I warn you, it can create a neural counter-circuit, forewarned is forearmed ) ready ?, let's begin, we are in the middle of the religious conflict in the Reich, with the Protestant alliance momentarily in the advantage, after their reconquest of Wurttemberg, we find the imperial court worried about finding itself involved on several fronts at the same time ( against France, the Protestants, the Italian states, the city revolts in Burgundy, Guelders, the Saracen pirates and the Ottomans ) the only one who seems momentarily undecided on which side to take is, as usual, Henry VIII ( known as the hypocrite ), to avoid being enchanted by the French flattery, the emperor's German advisors suggest a plan bordering on the absurd and potentially terribly counterproductive ( because to convince his English majesty, we do not promise him an enlargement of his dominions ( naturally already putting aside his ambitions in France ) we have two problems at the moment where his support could be very useful to us ( against France and..... in the Empire ) so knowing this, why don't we give him the possibility of gaining a foothold in the Reich at the expense of a heretical prince who opposes us ? ( well yes, there was actually someone who considered this idea, particularly its resurgence after Henry's marriage to Anne of Cleves, as a means to distance him from supporting the League of Smalkand, I know Bremen was rumored as a possible prize for english support ) fortunately Charles never took this idea into great consideration, but just discovering that there was someone who even remotely thought so shocked me, human idiocy now has no limits 😂🤣😰😓
English Bremen anyone?
 
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