Is World War One unavoidable ?

[Michel Van]

World War One, Two and the Cold War,
Were caused as one man Gavrilo Princip, who killed Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria.
What follow was a chain reaction that forced European powers into 4 years of Bloody War, what 22 years later was continue even more brutal...

But is this unavoidable ?

Could have History went another way with delaying or even prevent World War One and Two ?

One POD would be that Franz Ferdinand become Emperor of Austria-Hungary before 1910.
He could make a deal with France, Britain and Russia for quadruple Detente and stabilise peace in Europe for more years
And make a deal with Tsar Nicholas II about the sphere of influence of both empires in east Europe.
Still there issue of Serbian terrorist organisation "Black Hand", except they get catch for assassination of the Serbian royal couple in 1903,

German Empire would look for new ally and find it in Japan, who looking for recognition as Political Power after Japanese-Russian War.
And in case of War they could attack Russia on two fronts,
I think Italy would stay in alliance with German Empire, because Italy rivalry with France over Mediterranean and Africa colonies.

This could delay a possible World War into 1920s, but need this to be a World War ?
or could this a conflict or "small" war were European powers intervene, Analog to the Crimean War or Chinese Boxer Rebellion, like a collapse of Ottoman Empire ?

 

[Interdimensional Nomad]

I'd say WW1 was about as unavoidable as a war between the US and the USSR was in the second half of the 20th century. The situation may be a power keg, but it still needs a spark to go off, and that spark might just not happen. Gavrilo Princip might decide to get lunch somewhere else. That might just result in a delayed war, with it starting later on from a different spark. But that later opportunity, and others, could easily get missed too. And if direct war is avoided long enough, eventually the geopolitical situation would change to become less tense, since powderkegs rarely last.

If war is avoided until the 1920s or so, I could see the situation continuing as a Cold War-like one, as both sides become increasingly aware of how potentially deadly the weapons they're developing could be if used. Even before WW1 in OTL, the possibility of a war with modern weapons causing mass destruction was being explored in fiction.

 

[Crowbar Six]

That war was going to happen sooner rather than later.

 

[Onkel Willie]

World War One, Two and the Cold War,
Were caused as one man Gavrilo Princip, who killed Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria.
What follow was a chain reaction that forced European powers into 4 years of Bloody War, what 22 years later was continue even more brutal...

But is this unavoidable ?

Could have History went another way with delaying or even prevent World War One and Two ?

One POD would be that Franz Ferdinand become Emperor of Austria-Hungary before 1910.
He could make a deal with France, Britain and Russia for quadruple Detente and stabilise peace in Europe for more years
And make a deal with Tsar Nicholas II about the sphere of influence of both empires in east Europe.
Still there issue of Serbian terrorist organisation "Black Hand", except they get catch for assassination of the Serbian royal couple in 1903,

German Empire would look for new ally and find it in Japan, who looking for recognition as Political Power after Japanese-Russian War.
And in case of War they could attack Russia on two fronts,
I think Italy would stay in alliance with German Empire, because Italy rivalry with France over Mediterranean and Africa colonies.

This could delay a possible World War into 1920s, but need this to be a World War ?
or could this a conflict or "small" war were European powers intervene, Analog to the Crimean War or Chinese Boxer Rebellion, like a collapse of Ottoman Empire ?

I'd say it was definitely avoidable. If Franz Ferdinand is not killed in 1914 and you postpone a war for a few years, Russia will have become too strong. Germany wouldn't risk a war then. It'd somehow have to break up the Entente, probably by making Russia lots of promises. That might not sit well with Austria-Hungary and the Ottomans, though the question is how receptive Russia will be. Its rivalry with the British in the Middle East had been resolved. The question is if it could be re-ignited by the Germans. If the Three Emperors League is revived, I wonder if Britain and France would risk a war.

 

[Aphrodite]

Anything that needs a conscious decision is avoidable. WWI can easily be avoided because only FJ wanted it.

He tried to get the Germans and Italians to back him during the Balkan Wars but neither was interested. He took advantage of the Kaiser's emotional state to get the backing he needed.

Franz Ferdinand had no interest in war, opposed it at every turn and would have sought reconciliation with Russia at all costs- or more accurately at Britain and Italy's expense.

The Tsar and Kaiser both wanted a peaceful solution to the July crisis

 

[Michel Van]

If war is avoided until the 1920s or so, I could see the situation continuing as a Cold War-like one, as both sides become increasingly aware of how potentially deadly the weapons they're developing could be if used. Even before WW1 in OTL, the possibility of a war with modern weapons causing mass destruction was being explored in fiction.

Like H.G. Wells
Who predicted several weapons systems later used in World wars, Tanks, Aircraft, combat Gas, Sub-marines with cruise missiles, even Atomic bomb !

they're developing could be if used. Even before WW1 in OTL, the possibility of a war with modern weapons causing mass destruction was being explored in fiction.

Although Technology could evolve slower as OTL, do lack of War.

though the question is how receptive Russia will be

Internal has Russia allot problems that World War One accelerate to uprise and communist revolution !
either Tsar Nicholas II makes reform or he face civil war.

but it still needs a spark to go off

Next Russia Internal problems , we have the Ottomans last gasp, the last white spots in Africa to conquer and implosion of Qing China.
Japan will exploit last one to expand there empire, on long term they will clash with USA over dominance in Asia
But that could end in local war between USA and Empire of Japan...
... If some one is smart enough in Germany to stay neutral in this conflict

 

[Nivek]

Nothing is unavoidable till it happens, if anything the powder keg could have exploded earlier, later or not at all.

France wanted his revanche war they could start the whole mess when Wilhelm Ii tries to integrated fully eltass Lothringen

 

[Geon]

On its most basic level, World War I had one root cause - nationalism.

All the participants in the conflict were looking out for their own interests and the devil take anyone else. Germany wanted more colonies in Africa. France wanted a rematch of the Franco-Prussian War to win back Alsace-Lorain. Russia was smarting from the defeat it had received a few years earlier in the Russo-Japanese War. Serbia wanted to bring all the Serb populated areas around it into a greater Serbian Federation. Austria Hungary wanted to keep the status quo at all costs.

In light of this and other factors these nations entered into a complicated chain of alliances. Princip's bullet set the fuse burning that led to the war. But it just as easily could have been someone or something else.

There are some who say the war was inevitable due to the desire of the industrialists in the different nations to have such a war in order to end what was seen as eventual worker rebellions demanding higher wages and better working conditions. The industrial and military leaders felt a war would silence this growing worker movement. (This by the way is the scenario portrayed in the TV documentary Apocalypse World War I: Fury. I do not share this opinion for the record.)

 

[Riain]

Some form of major war was probable, in order to reorganise the world order around 'superpower', which had become a geopolitical possibility with the proliferation of the railroad. The world order dominated by middle powers, those best able to use water transport for the domestic transport task, was almost a century old by WW1 and some drastic things had changed: Germany and Italy were unified, trans-continental railroads in the US and Russia, steamships and canals etc etc etc.

Given the established, and therefore superseded in the new paradigm, powers like France, Britain and AH for example will not accept this willingly a war will be required.

 

[marathag]

No WWI, the British have many problems with the Irish and Suffrage movement, so a 1915to say 1917 may keep the UK out of a European War

 

[Orcbuster]

Difference between pre wwi climate and cold war is the sheer number of actors with different tensions between them. It a lot more complicated in short. So yes you do need a spark but you have a LOT of different potential sources for said spark.

 

[Michel Van]

Geon is right on root cause - nationalism
Recap who is who in 1910s Europe

British Empire - Ruler of biggest Empire in History - Try to stay neutral in Europe, but its rival France is their ally, because Germany.
France third Republic - vengeance on 1870 and want Alsace-Lorraine back from German Empire
Germany - it's Emperor want "a place under sun" and play with Battle ships, while socialist unrest shake his Empire
Austria-Hungary - Ultra Conservative, it Ruler unable to adapt or compromise, with urge to expand into east block,
Russia - Want to control the East-block, huge internal problems and lost war with Japan
Italy - rival with French about control of Mediterranean and Africa colonies and issue with Austria-Hungary
Netherlands - neutral, ignored by others Nations.
Luxemburg - desire by Germany (also Bavaria) and France.
Belgium - despise by others nations do Leopold II. murderous rule over Congo... (British is force by treaty to help them in invasion)
Serbia - want to unite all serbs and there territory under one nation by murder...
Bulgaria - want to expand eastwards
Greece - Want to expand eastwards
Spain - Huge economic and political problems, on road to the 1930s civil war
Portugal - same problem like Spain, puls political murder.
Denmark - vengeance on Prussian -Danish war, wants territory back.
Sweden & Norway- neutral, they dissolving union...
Albania - just became a state and don't know what way political
Ottoman empire - a dying Super power were European powers wait for right moment to strike and take there claims...

 

[James Ricker]

With the state of alliances it was inevitable, but several things had to happen exactly as they did to make it so destructive.

 

[Michel Van]

With the state of alliances it was inevitable, but several things had to happen exactly as they did to make it so destructive.

Yes, with alliances system in 1914 the War was unavoidable, special with Emperors Franz Joseph I. and Wilhelm II.
That's why i proposed Franz Ferdinand become Emperor before 1914 and create a quadruple Detente to deescalate the situation .
But this will only delay things for some years.
Either France and Germany clash again or Italy get in clash with France or AH and Alliance system drag the others into War.
Same goes once Ottoman empire collapses and European start to fight over its remains and each others
Or Japan drag German empire into War with Russia (under the quadruple Detente) what let to World War one

 

[Simreeve]

No WWI, the British have many problems with the Irish and Suffrage movement, so a 1915to say 1917 may keep the UK out of a European War

No WWI in 1914 means that the British government can pay more attention to those problems: IOTL, Home Rule for Ireland was seriously being discussed in 1914 but then got "put on hold" for the duration, so potentially that could have been settled before a 1917 outbreak of hostilities on the continent.

 

[marktaha]

Britain, France, Germany, Russia have the sense to stay at peace with each other and let the Balkans fight it out among themselves.

 

[Vinization]

I'd say it's avoidable, since although the powder keg was set you still need a spark to blow things up. Maybe we could get an early version of the Cold War, but with poison gas instead of atomic bombs?

 

[Nivek]

That's why i proposed Franz Ferdinand become Emperor before 1914 and create a quadruple Detente to deescalate the situation .

He would never do that as he is already dividing his empire to make it easier his enemies to fragment it, that's why USGA was rejected as soon was proposed, divided everyone even more, FF WANTED MORE CENTRALIZATION, NO LESS

 

[ObssesedNuker]

Historical consensus is that some kinda general European War was an "overdetermined" event by 1914. There have been attempts to argue against this but none have seemed to gain that much traction in terms of shaking the consensus. Even accepting that, however, this does not mean that WW1 as we know it specifically necessarily could not have been avoided by 1914 nor that an earlier PoD might have butterflied the probability of a 1910s General European War away. In the latter case, the question obviously becomes "at point did WW1 become overdetermined event?" in order to be able to devise. Unfortunately, historical consensus on that question remains somewhat more elusive, even amongst the proponderance of the community who accepts said consensus (and, obviously, not everyone does).

 

[James Ricker]

Yes, with alliances system in 1914 the War was unavoidable, special with Emperors Franz Joseph I. and Wilhelm II.
That's why i proposed Franz Ferdinand become Emperor before 1914 and create a quadruple Detente to deescalate the situation .
But this will only delay things for some years.
Either France and Germany clash again or Italy get in clash with France or AH and Alliance system drag the others into War.
Same goes once Ottoman empire collapses and European start to fight over its remains and each others
Or Japan drag German empire into War with Russia (under the quadruple Detente) what let to World War one

Any delay would have altered the balance of power, resulting in a much quicker victory for
One side