PC: An Alternate Principate

[John Fredrick Parker]

So thinking about an old scenario discussed, wherein the son of Tiberius, Drusus the Younger, lives longer; one of the ideas brought up was that Tiberius would give his heir more governing responsibilities as he got on in years. Then I wondered - - considering that OTL Tiberius went into a sort of semi-retirement on Capri, giving over governance to Sejanus, would he go into a more “official” retirement TTL? And then I thought, that might raise an interesting possibility in its own right, with “retirement” for Roman Emperors being normalized a lot sooner than OTL.

Could this change in itself fundamentally change the Principate going forward? And might this be a general scenario worth revisiting?

It might work with Tiberius and Drusus the Younger. But I'm not sure such a scheme would be workable long term. It would depend, in large part, on the personalities of the Emperor's and their heirs...

If both Tiberius and Drusus manage to retire, even if the next guy doesn’t, that’s still half of the first four emperors, which is a pretty strong precedent. It might even give some in the Senate the idea of setting “terms” for the princep (e.g. a decade), while always having the designated heir and secondary heir established.

It's a possibility, if they can make it work for a few more generations...

So here’s what I’m thinking - - when TTL gets to its fourth Roman Emperor, clear precedent has been established on two key points: (1) every emperor has both an heir and an heir to the heir (and, in the case of Drusus before Germanicus died, a back-up to the heir to the heir), such that it is considered “unusual” for an emperor to name his own successor, but “normal” for him to name his successor’s successor; and (2) emperors are allowed to retire, and in fact it’s becoming “expected” for them to once they reach a certain age.

Now so far, how plausible does this sound? Because if it does sound reasonable, I thought that the Roman Empire could build off this precedent to make just one major reform, that would completely redefine the government while using only those institutions that are familiar to the OTL Principate - - what if, around sixty years after Augustus’s death, the emperor and senate passed a reform whereby future Princeps would served fixed ten year terms?

Everything else would work as established - - during an emperor’s term, he would name the heir to his heir, while his own direct successor has already been named by his predecessor and confirmed by the senate; then he would ten years to direct overall imperial policy, which would be implemented by the magistrates and senators he inherited from his predecessors. Then at the end of his ten year term he would retire, and his successor would continue the process. In a way, it would be a kind of Antonine Dynasty on steroids.

What do you guys think? Does this seem workable, at least for a time? And if so, how would the Roman Empire fare during this period?

 

[Evil Crusader]

I would point to the Byzantine Empire as the probable evolution of this system - sometimes it works and sometimes it does not; the biggest stumbling block being that I am unsure whether the Senate would be ready to formalize the Monarchy this early - OTL the senatorial influence held on well until the end of the Five Good Emperors period, and with it, the fiction of Rome not being a Monarchy. It probably requires some war early on, and probably only outcompetes OTL from the Third Century onwards.

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

I would point to the Byzantine Empire as the probable evolution of this system - sometimes it works and sometimes it does not

This is something I'd love to hear more about.

the biggest stumbling block being that I am unsure whether the Senate would be ready to formalize the Monarchy this early - OTL the senatorial influence held on well until the end of the Five Good Emperors period, and with it, the fiction of Rome not being a Monarchy.

The Senate would actually be incredibly powerful in this system; emperors would have to rely heavily on the senatorial class to have any hope of implementing their agenda, and the system for appointing emperors would ensure that no emperor would come to power who wasn't incentivized to do so (ie nobody more interested in partying than governing, etc). And once terms become a thing, they only have a set time to do everything, and don't have the freedom to influence how their successor will rule (since said successor was appointed by their predecessor).

The Senate is not only the enduring institution here, the governing body that remains as emperors come and go (more regularly than OTL), but the only reliable governing institution for fleshing out imperial policy, as Princep cannot hope to build a "court" around themselves capable of such complicated logistics with the time they have.

It probably requires some war early on

Maybe a brief conflict between a "reformist" and "monarchist" faction, but it doesn't have to be anything as brutal as the civil wars of OTL.

and probably only outcompetes OTL from the Third Century onwards.

So Pax Romana is more or less the same "on the ground", but things become far more noticeably better when we get to OTL's Decline and Crisis Period (160 to 310) ? Yeah, that makes sense.

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

One additional note of interest for TTL:

So I had been thinking on this, and have since come to a new conclusion - - a marriage between Drusus the Younger and Agrippina the Elder would not have been illegal under Roman law at the time, nor considered improper by standards of the Julio-Claudia’s family.

To start, while Agrippina is Drusus’ half-aunt by blood, but she was his maternal aunt, which wasn’t considered incest under Roman law (which only defined a couple as being related “by blood” when through their fathers). Agrippina having been married to Drusus’ cousin and his divorcee-to-he’s sister wouldn’t be an issue either. And considering the other marriages that were perfectly “normal” for the imperial dynasty at the time -- such as Julia the Elder’s first marriage being to her cousin -- it doesn’t seem like it that this match would raise any eyebrows in particular.

So I’m officially walking back my walk back from a few years ago; I may or may not have a new thread to revisit the scenario for 2023.

This incidentally means that Agrippina the Elder would have quite the "career", as she starts out as the wife of Germanicus, then his widow, then marries the new heir (Drusus), then she's the Empress Consort, then the Empress Mother; she likely dies circa 72 CE, or about the time of the end of her son's reign. What this may mean for the Principate is that there may be precedent for an important (albeit ceremonial) role for the most notable imperial woman.

-----CONSOLIDATE---

Anyway, this is how I see the list of emperors playing out at first:

• Augustus (to 14 CE)
• Tiberius (14 to 26)
• Drusus (son of Tiberius) (27 to 52)
• Nero (son of Germanicus) (53 to 72)
• Gemellus (son of Drusus) (73 to 82)

When we get to 83 CE, we’re getting to somebody who would have been appointed under Nero; I can actually see this person being chosen for their military accomplishments, possibly even unrelated to the Julio-Claudians, since I expect that Nero would see a war with the Parthians under his reign. If so, then even if Gemellus appoints a family member for the term after that (93 to 102), you’d likely see a transition to a more “meritocratic” adoptive dynasty (at least for a period).

And just for fun, some wildly speculative names to continue the list:

• Pilanius (OTL Pliny the Elder) (83 to 92)
• Ahenobarbus (son of OTL Nero's-father by a different mother) (93 to 102)
• Caecilius (OTL Pliny the Younger) (103 to 112)
• Antonius Magnus (complete OC) (113 to 122)
• Hadrian (123 to 132)
• Fulvus (OTL Antonius Pius) (133 to 161)

I added years to the last one, because I figured eventually you were going to have an emperor try to get around the set-term of the reforms; after this, you might see a return to the term system, or a more standard monarchy, or something else -- but in any event, I expect the climate cooling and likely pandemic spreading of the later second century happens as OTL.