The Great War of 1910 (PTPF 6)

[Grey Wolf]

Continuing from
https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=4221

- - - - - - -

Crete
March 1911

Commander Konstantin Rossokovsky looked down towards the bay. Arranged side-by-side were the Greek and Russian fleets, or those units which had participated in the invasion of Crete. A Turkish force had been beaten off - with substantial losses, it was believed, though the Turks were claiming less. Then the way had been clear for a landing of Greek army units - just in time to receive the fealty of the Greek governor appointed in the wake of the 1906 Revolt. Though there were still diehard Turkish fighters in the mountains, and maybe even in the fabled catacombs (if they existed), the island had already been officially united with the Kingdom of Greece. Paintings and busts of King Georgios I had sprung up everywhere, and the Greek flag flew from every conceivable building in sight. There were already moves to arrange elections to the Greek national assembly in Athens, but to Rossokovsky such talk of the future was beginning to sound dangerously premature.
He reviewed the paper in his hand. As aide to Admiral Prince Ukhtomski, he received such information ahead of many others. The Greek protected cruiser Sparta had been sunk off Corfu by an Austro-French force. To all intents and purposes, Greece no longer controlled its Western seaboard, most especially the seas around the islands of the late Septinsular Republic, incorporated into the kingdom but twelve years before. Any talk of victory in the Eastern Mediterranean was both dangerously premature and likely to be rebutted by the turn of events. The last war had lasted over two years and had been mainly an Anglo-Russian affair. This time both alliance systems were engaged in full, yet the war was barely six months old. It seemed likely to Rossokovsky that it might last a very long time indeed...


Grey Wolf

 

[Grey Wolf]

London
March 1911

"I cannot agree to this at all !", Prime Minister Lord Randolph Churchill balled the despatch up in the palm of his hand and flung it across the room, "Who does Beresford think he is - Lord bloody Nelson?!"
First Lord of the Admiralty Lord George Hamilton, blanched and had a struggle to find his tongue,
"It...it is, ahem, Admiral Beresford's contention that the Home Reserve is achieving nothing whilst anchored at Chatham and at Portsmouth..."
"It is, is it ?" Churchill could barely keep the anger from out of his voice, "If we commit ourselves fully to the Baltic we have nothing left to send anywhere else..."
"The Mediterranean and Pacific squadrons..."
"Are already fully committed", Lord Randolph did not hesitate to interrupt his minister, "What is the United States looking at ? All our intelligence from Washington tells us that a powerful war party around President Lodge simply awaits the opportune moment to declare against us."
"Admiral Beresford fears that the combination of Russian and German fleets could overwhelm his."
"Beresford is scare-mongering again", Foreign Secretary Lord George Nathaniel Curzon, who had entered without knocking, immediately weighed in, "It is his duty to prevent such a union, and he seems to be discounting completely our Polish allies."
"King Maximilian II had decreed that no major Polish warship engage an enemy vessel unless it has no choice", Hamilton commented drily.
"It is true that he is not the man his father was", Lord Curzon said with bitterness, "But Beresford should be making better use of the Polish fleet."
"Mayhap he is", Lord George Hamilton responded, "He has operational authority and does not need to run his decisions past the Admiralty."
Lord Randolph decided that the interchange had gone far enough,
"Inform the Admiral that the size of his Baltic force was based upon certain strategic considerations at the time of his departure, and that those considerations have not changed."
"It shall be done", Hamilton did not manage to keep the disappointment from out of his voice.


Grey Wolf

 

[Coriolanus]

Fascinating. It's very interesting to see a TL where Britain enters the 20th century weakened, a lack of a strong Germany, and the existance of both the USA and CSA.

Do you know how far you want to go with this, Grey Wolf? It has alot of promise....I found it intriguing that Britain is much weaker in the Middle East, and Turkey and Russia much stronger.....that will have a huge effect on the future of the Middle East.

 

[Grey Wolf]

Fascinating. It's very interesting to see a TL where Britain enters the 20th century weakened, a lack of a strong Germany, and the existance of both the USA and CSA.

Do you know how far you want to go with this, Grey Wolf? It has alot of promise....I found it intriguing that Britain is much weaker in the Middle East, and Turkey and Russia much stronger.....that will have a huge effect on the future of the Middle East.

Thank you for commenting I think I intend to try to novelise the Great War - not all of it, and not fully, but as a different way of continuing the timeline, certainly a less dry one.

Grey Wolf

 

[Grey Wolf]

Relative Naval Strength (1)

Here is the first part of the table showing the strengh of the Mediterranean powers as of October 1910

 

[Grey Wolf]

Relative Naval Strength (2)

This one covers the rest of Europe, the Americas and the Far East/Indochina

 

[Grey Wolf]

Naval Losses Oct 1910 - Feb 1911

Naval Losses October 1910 - December 1910

Janina
- 2 protected cruisers and 5 armoured corvettes sunk by Russia
(Austria's cassus belli)
- 1 armoured cruiser lost to a mine
- 2 torpedo gunboats lost to Greek cruisers

Greece
- 2 1st class battleships, 3 armoured cruisers, 6 protected cruisers and 3 armoured corvettes lost in battle against the Austrians
- 2 protected cruisers sunk in various actions against the Austro-French forces in the Ionian Sea

Russia
- 1 protected cruiser lost to battle damage after the clash with Janinan forces
- 1 armoured cruiser mined off Alaska
- 2 1st class battleships and 1 armoured cruiser lost against Austria

Britain
- 1 2nd class battleship mined off Malta

Montenegro
- 1 2nd class battleship sunk off Shkoder in clash with the Austrians

France
- 1 armoured cruiser mined off Corfu

Austria
- 2 protected cruisers and 3 torpedo gunboats sunk in clash against Greece
- 1 1st class battleship, 2 protected cruisers and 2 gunboats lost in clash against Russia


Losses January - February 1911

Turkish Empire
- 2 1st class battleships and 1 protected cruiser lost off Crete against the Russians
- 1 2nd class battleship sunk off Benghazi by Egyptian forces

Britain
- 1 armoured cruiser mined in the Baltic

Russia
- 1 protected cruiser and 1 armoured corvette lost against the Turks off Crete

Greece
- 1 protected cruiser sunk off Corfu by Austro-French forces

Grey Wolf

 

[Grey Wolf]

Naval Gains Oct 1910 - Feb 1911

Naval Gains
Oct 1910 - Feb 1911

Russia
- 1 armoured cruiser completed in the Baltic
- rebuilding of 2 2nd class battleships completed in the Pacific

Egypt
- 2 new armoured cruisers rushed into service

France
- 2 1st class battleships completed

Britain
- 3 armoured cruisers completed

Turkish Empire
- 1 1st class battleship rushed into service

Grey Wolf

 

[Grey Wolf]

Combatants Naval Strength Feb 1911

This table shows the relative strength of those nations at war at the end of February 1911. It hasn't been broken down to show dispositions - for example the Royal Navy lumps everything not in the Med together as 'North' which implies it is centred on Britain. A large proportion of these are now in the Baltic under Beresford, whilst the balance is at Chatham and Portsmouth. Some, however, will at any given time be in the North Atlantic.

 

[Grey Wolf]

Beresford and the Baltic

Beresford's forces

8 1st class battleships
4 2nd class battleships
6 armoured cruisers

1 armoured cruiser has been lost to a mine in the Baltic
2 new armoured cruisers from home are sent to replace it

This leaves as the 'Home Reserve' :-

2 1st class battleships
4 2nd class battleships
9 armoured cruisers

By March 1911, Beresford therefore has in the Baltic :-

8 1st class battleships
4 2nd class battleships
7 armoured cruisers


Grey Wolf

 

[Matthew Craw]

How can Egypt possibly affoard such a large fleet?

Remember we are talking about an agrarian stae with a population of only around 7 million in Egypt proper, and well under 20 million in the Sultante as a whiole. There are OTL industrialised Great Poweres who would have struggled to fund such a large battlefleet.

 

[Grey Wolf]

March 1911 - Valetta

Malta
March 1911

Admiral Sir Archibald Berkeley Milne looked at the timepiece behind him on the bridge of the Valiant. One minute to Midday. He stood stock still, watching the second hand traverse the dial, aware that a palpable tension was building up as the moment finally approached.
"All battleships commence fire" he barked, as the minute hand slid onto the twelve
With the order relayed to all ships of the fleet, a sheet of flame erupted along the battle line. Eight first class and three second class battleships began pouring their fire onto the defences of Valetta.
"Captain Shorthouse, please relay to the Admiralty that we have commenced operations" Milne ordered, all the time keeping his eyes on the scene beyond rather than addressing his flag captain directly.
"Yes sir - radio !", the Captain turned towards the collection of officers stood back from the bridge rail.
In his mind's eye, Milne saw not the horror that the defenders of Malta would be suffering as the torrent of shells rained down upon them, but the fleet of transports from Gibraltar, riding the surprisingly calm seas out of sight to the West. His command's protected cruisers and armoured corvettes were split between the defence of them, and the protection of the battlefleet. All intelligence said that there were no Russian or Egyptian warships in these waters, but intelligence had been known to be wrong before - most notably when the second class battleship HMS Glory had blundered into a minefield off Malta that he had been assured did not exist. That had cost him the only loss of the campaign so far (if one ignored a torpedo gunboat which had run aground), and Milne was taking no chances this time.
The Maltese had been besieged for three months now, all supply ships attempting to approach the island having been intercepted by his force. Oh, no doubt, some smaller vessels had managed to run the blockade, the Egyptians were known for their skill at such things, and he did not doubt that a few Greek shipmasters also prided themselves likewise. But in terms of importance these would be but minor alleviations of the difficulties he knew that the defenders would be having.
A massive explosion in the distance drew him back to the immediate fray. A hit from one of the second class battleships had detonated a magazine in one of the outer forts. Before the day was out he expected to see such scenes repeated across the bay. Then, he would send in the transports. Malta, stripped from the British Empire in the ignominious peace of 1898, would once again be returned to her rule.
"The message has been sent to the Admiralty, sir" Captain Shorthouse came up alongside him at the guardrail.
"Good", Milne nodded contentedly, "By tomorrow we should have another message to send to London."
"Yes indeed, sir"
Captain Shorthouse could only share his commanding officer's enthusiasm. The Union Jack would be flying over Valetta again !

Grey Wolf

 

[Grey Wolf]

How can Egypt possibly affoard such a large fleet?

Remember we are talking about an agrarian stae with a population of only around 7 million in Egypt proper, and well under 20 million in the Sultante as a whiole. There are OTL industrialised Great Poweres who would have struggled to fund such a large battlefleet.

Egypt's geographical dominion includes Syria, Palestine, Transjordan, the Hejaz, the Soudan and areas of Eritrea directly, as well as Saharan states who recognise Egyptian overlordship.

In the nineteenth century OTL Egypt was able to order ironclads off its own back

I have assumed several things in their development - one is that their resources have largely been used wisely (i.e. no bankrupting of the nation as occurred OTL under Ismail), that foreign investment has flowed in (this would include from Russia and Austria as well as from France, and not so much from Britain), and that economic development has taken place

Remember that this Egypt has been independent since the 1820s in fact, longer in essence. Mehmed Ali's line have positioned it well in the international alliance systems, they have constantly benefitted from any conflict among the European powers

OTL Egypt experienced a cotton boom due to the ACW - a boom that later became something of a bust. Although here there is no such boom as the CSA has both British and French aid from the start, there is a growth of the cotton industry, including exports to Russia etc. And the 1870s Second War of the Americas probably found them new markets as the CSA was invaded for a time by the Union

More long-term development not based on quick financing or transient booms would leave Egypt's economy in better shape. It also has control of a lot of the Saharan trade, as well as that in the Red Sea

Grey Wolf

 

[Matthew Craw]

All of which makes Egypt stronger, no doubt strong enough to build up a smallish battlefleet, but not strong enough to become the fourth naval power in the world.

The combined OTL resources of the territories comprising this ATL' sultanate of Egypt would have been rather less than those of OTL's ottoman Empire, and a great deal less than those of the European Great Powers.

A focused development policy could have achieved a great deal, but I find it unlikely that it could have achieved much more than comparable efforts in, for instance, Japan.

An Egyptian fleet comparable in strength to OTL's Ausira-Hungary's or italy's makes sense, but more would require resources i just don't see this Egypt having, we're still talking about a total population of less than 30 million, with per capita income and industrialisation well below those of Western europe.

Still, thjis is your ATL and if you want massive fleets then I suppose that's your right, I just think you overdid it a bit with Egypt.

 

[Grey Wolf]

A note on naval development - if one thinks of vessels from the turn of the century one would be closer to what is intended here. The Russo-Japanese War has some parallels, except that no such ship as the torpedo-boat-destroyer exists. Battlefleets generally consist of :-

1st class battleships
(think typical pre-dreadnoughts, one dual turret fore and aft, maybe look at Majestic or Pobieda for examples, perhaps Hatsuse, and with the best ships at the level of Mikasa or Tsesarevitch, there being quite a range of designs and philosophies involved here)

2nd class battleships or coast defence battleships
- smaller than the above, intended for coastal duties or for showing the flag, yet in wartime pressed into service as something between an armoured cruiser and a 1st class battleship. Maybe think Revenge or the Hood, anywhere up to that size and including ships more akin to the Swedish coast defence battleships of the turn of the century

armoured cruisers
- more the mainstay of the fleet than in OTL 1910, think perhaps of the Russo-Japanese War for their role and importance. The best of these would be akin to the Russian Bayan or Bogatyr, though quite a number would be more like the Russian Rurik, older, slower and less useful but still able to hold its own in a battle (if more likely to be sunk)

protected cruisers
- more like the smaller Highflyer types than the giant Terrible, these are the scouts and workhorses of the fleet

armoured corvettes
- these tend to have the role of OTL destroyers, but with a different philosophy. They are purely intended to annihilate torpedo boats, rather than to replicate their role in addition. They tend to be the same size as gunboats but with more offensive power

gunboats and torpedo gunboats
- the former intended for in-shore operations, the latter for service with the fleet as required, these have developed from several genesis including the sloop and the riverine gunboat. Found with the battlefleet usually only if it intends coastal operations (though not exclusively so), these are adjuncts to the main battlefleet

torpedo boats
- small vessels suited only for coastal operations, these have been much hyped and much feared but have produced no success of note. Larger warships (1st class battleships and armoured cruisers) tend to carry a pair of these vessels as well. Tactical doctrine would have them launched at the enemy battleline but to date no such mass attack has occurred

submarines
- some early models exist but nobody has seriously thought about employing them in any real role

Grey Wolf

 

[Grey Wolf]

All of which makes Egypt stronger, no doubt strong enough to build up a smallish battlefleet, but not strong enough to become the fourth naval power in the world.

The combined OTL resources of the territories comprising this ATL' sultanate of Egypt would have been rather less than those of OTL's ottoman Empire, and a great deal less than those of the European Great Powers.

A focused development policy could have achieved a great deal, but I find it unlikely that it could have achieved much more than comparable efforts in, for instance, Japan.

An Egyptian fleet comparable in strength to OTL's Ausira-Hungary's or italy's makes sense, but more would require resources i just don't see this Egypt having, we're still talking about a total population of less than 30 million, with per capita income and industrialisation well below those of Western europe.

Still, thjis is your ATL and if you want massive fleets then I suppose that's your right, I just think you overdid it a bit with Egypt.

Perhaps the 1910 date of the ATL is confusing in that I intend naval development to be more around the 1900-1904 period. The cost of a 1st class battleship is less, whilst armoured cruisers have a tendency to proliferate. If you look at pre-1904 Japan, it based its ability to build a fleet on victory over China in 1894 and the subsequent additional bonus payment when Japan had to leave Port Arthur. By 1904 I admit Japan's fleet was less than Egypt's in this ATL, but Egypt has a longer history. For example, an armoured cruiser built at the end of the 1880s could still be considered viable if naval development has not advanced as quickly as in OTL.

Still, on the other hand, maybe Egypt has simply been lucky

I would expect there to have been considerable industrial development though within the sultanate. The opening (rather later than OTL) of the Suez Canal would also provide an additional focus.

I am thinking that when under British occupation from 1880 onwards in OTL Egypt tended to be developed to British strategic needs rather than to Egyptian economic ones. In many nations this was a period of significant industrial progress, and I see Egypt as participating in this substantially more than in OTL

Grey Wolf

 

[Matthew Craw]

I would expect there to have been considerable industrial development though within the sultanate. The opening (rather later than OTL) of the Suez Canal would also provide an additional focus.



Grey Wolf

Well, that's not necessarily true, in OTL the opening of teh Suez canal was disastrous for Egypt as shipping through it could not be taxed, and the presence of teh canal led to teh decline in the overland route, which could be.

Compared to Egypt Japan had a larger population base and, IIRC, a higher starting level of industrialisation.

Government's can't simply decide to industrilise, Egypt herself can't raise much capital, and most foreign investment will be in those areas earning the highest return and in which Egypt has a comparative advantage, which probably means mostly commercail agriculture. Economic growth on this scale would probably require that Egyupt become by far teh greatest recipient of nineteenth century industrial investment, and it's simply not as attractive for that as teh USA, Europe or even Russia.

IN light of teh Egyptuan japanese contrast, IIRC Japan had no 1st ratre battleships in teh early 1890s and only something like 8 in 1904.

 

[Grey Wolf]

Hamburg (Hannover) - March 1911

Hamburg
March 1911

Colonel Augustus Pike looked over the teeming mass of humanity with a practised eye. To the untrained observer all was chaos and confusion, men and animals, carts and the occasional steam-driven vehicle going in every direction possible without any sign of co-ordination or purpose. But from where he stood with a wad of papers secured to a wooden board, Colonel Pike could discern the impetus behind the various currents below him.
As the transports pulled up at the dockside they were unloaded by the massive steam-driven cranes that proliferated in this city. The goods were then piled on the dockside. Locomotives moved the more readily accessible stock. Goodsmen and labourers moved the rest - some to official army transport, such as the Royal Hannoverian green-liveried carts, but a lot of it to private contractors who signed off on it and saw it to the required depot under their own auspices. Many of these latter owned horse-driven contraptions, but a few used steam-powered traction, and he was sure he had also seen a handful of that new-fangled internal combustion engine whose alleged potential was so exciting the army logistics division.
"Sir", a lieutenant approached him on the rooftop, "Captain Smithers wants to know whether the Lincoln Castle can dock before the Astoria, given the request from General Graves that as many horses as possible be ready at Wolfenbuttel by this evening."
Pike swore silently - no need for the other ranks to see how annoyed he was. Everything was going smoothly before him, but now someone wanted to mess with the order of things, interpose an unexpected element into the arrangements he had so carefully made... But in the end, he too was answerable to the commander of the British Expeditionary Force. He sighed and nodded,
"Very well, inform Captain Smithers that the Astoria is to stand down. Prepare the dockside crews for the arrival of the Lincoln Castle."
"Yes sir!", the lieutenant saluted smartly and hurried away.
Colonel Pike turned back to the scene before him. Compared to the unloading of horses, munitions were a child's game. He wasn't looking forward to the next few hours.

Grey Wolf

 

[Grey Wolf]

Well, that's not necessarily true, in OTL the opening of teh Suez canal was disastrous for Egypt as shipping through it could not be taxed, and the presence of teh canal led to teh decline in the overland route, which could be.

Compared to Egypt Japan had a larger population base and, IIRC, a higher starting level of industrialisation.

Government's can't simply decide to industrilise, Egypt herself can't raise much capital, and most foreign investment will be in those areas earning the highest return and in which Egypt has a comparative advantage, which probably means mostly commercail agriculture. Economic growth on this scale would probably require that Egyupt become by far teh greatest recipient of nineteenth century industrial investment, and it's simply not as attractive for that as teh USA, Europe or even Russia.

IN light of the Egyptuan japanese contrast, IIRC Japan had no 1st rate battleships in the early 1890s and only something like 8 in 1904.

OTL Egypt raised an enormous amount of foreign capital under Ismail - he then proceeded to spend it on giving a massive boost to the infrastructure of the country, but at the same time not generating anywhere near enough revenue to repay it. Hence the British involvement later on.

However, that is not what I am proposing. I am looking at almost a century of sustained development. There have been no disastrous wars - Egypt has either sat on the sidelines or been associated with the victorious side. The only major conflict of note has been against Abyssinia, analogous to OTL, but unlike OTL Egyptian arms were in a massively better state, and success in that war did not ruin the finances of the country.

Had it not been for pissing off the Ottoman Sultan by neglecting to invite him to the opening of the Suez Canal, Ismail's Egypt in OTL would have had several first class (for their time) battleships in the 1860s

Additionally, Egypt had a massive battlefleet in the 1830s - a large amount of the ships sunk at Navarino were Egyptian. In the ATL it has not suffered these reverses and decline, but has continued to build on its naval heritage

Grey Wolf

 

[Matthew Craw]

OTL Egypt raised an enormous amount of foreign capital under Ismail - he then proceeded to spend it on giving a massive boost to the infrastructure of the country, but at the same time not generating anywhere near enough revenue to repay it. Hence the British involvement later on.

Grey Wolf

Which did not reflect poor decision making so much as the economy's inability to provide profitable investment opportunities for large capital flows.

Battleships of the 1890s were a great deal more advanced and expensive than those of the 1860s, still less those of the 1830s. Didn't the last british predreadnoughts cost about £2 million each? how much less expensive would their fundamentally similar predecessors 4-5 years ago have been?

Your basic premise of a much more economically successful nineteenth century Egypt is certainly plausible, but there's not really a basis in Egypt for teh sort of phenomenal boom that seems to have occured here;

small internal markets, a limited labourforce, poor domestic capital formation, relatively unattatractive to foreign investment at sustainable rates of interest (NOT those of the 1870s), there's a limit to how far government policy can make up for all this and I just don't see how Egypt can be this strong by 1910.

On the plus side nothing else about the TL seems terribly impausible, I'd be really interested in a little more info on post 1848 French politics, how far has France moved towards true democracy in TTL?