WI: Nicholas II died in 1900

[Peppe]

So, I just recently discovered that, in the autumn 1900, Nicholas II fell gravely ill with typhoid fever (which to make things worse was also mixed with food poisoning), being in such a bad state at some point that the question of the succession was even discussed, although at the time it was in between Olga and the unborn (and so of unknown gender) Anastasia
Nicholas II managed to recover rom the disease, but what if he hadn't? And at some point in early November he dies at the age of 32, leaving behind a 28-year-old widow and four daughters, the eldest of whom is only five (and had her birthday either only a few days beforehand or a few days after, I'm not sure if the dates of my source are on the Julian or the Gregorian calendars) and the youngest of whom is an unborn baby

Firstly, who would succeed him? His eldest daughter (or his eldest daughter after Anastasia was born) or his then heir presumptive, Grand Duke Michael (who I imagine would, if not made tsar, become at least Olga's nominal regent).
Secondly, how would this affect the following years? Would the 1905 Revolution and the Russo-Japanese War still happen? Would the Russian monarchy/empire manage to survive (even if probably in a diminished power) if Nicholas II wasn't tsar? Would WWI even happen in the same manner as OTL?

 

[Gar48]

Did Imperial Russia even allow women to inherit the throne? Because in this case Michael becomes Tsar

Russo-Japanese War still happen?

Russia may avoid the war if someone more competent than Nicholas II is in charge

 

[Lalli]

Russia had agnatic succession so not way that daughter can succeed her father. So next on the line would be Nicholas' brother Michael.

Things might go intresting. Michael wasn't so intrested for emperorship. In other hand he was smarter than Nicholas and perhaps manage to cmmit some important reforms. Not sure would there still be Russo-Japanese War but Russia might be better prepared to WW1.

 

[Peppe]

Did Imperial Russia even allow women to inherit the throne? Because in this case Michael becomes Tsar

Russia had agnatic succession so not way that daughter can succeed her father. So next on the line would be Nicholas' brother Michael.

Admiteddly, the Pauline Laws barred women from succession (well, they barred them from succession as long as there were male members of the Romanov Dynasty), but since there seems to have been talks about the matter I chose to ask about Olga mainly out of curiosity about it being a possibility

 

[Gar48]

Admiteddly, the Pauline Laws barred women from succession (well, they barred them from succession as long as there were male members of the Romanov Dynasty), but since there seems to have been talks about the matter I chose to ask about Olga mainly out of curiosity about it being a possibility

Well her uncle becomes regent until she reaches the legal age to take the throne. In any case Russia is ruled by someone who isn't as incompetent as her father

 

[Fatt Shea]

So, I just recently discovered that, in the autumn 1900, Nicholas II fell gravely ill with typhoid fever (which to make things worse was also mixed with food poisoning), being in such a bad state at some point that the question of the succession was even discussed, although at the time it was in between Olga and the unborn (and so of unknown gender) Anastasia
Nicholas II managed to recover rom the disease, but what if he hadn't? And at some point in early November he dies at the age of 32, leaving behind a 28-year-old widow and four daughters, the eldest of whom is only five (and had her birthday either only a few days beforehand or a few days after, I'm not sure if the dates of my source are on the Julian or the Gregorian calendars) and the youngest of whom is an unborn baby

Firstly, who would succeed him? His eldest daughter (or his eldest daughter after Anastasia was born) or his then heir presumptive, Grand Duke Michael (who I imagine would, if not made tsar, become at least Olga's nominal regent).
Secondly, how would this affect the following years? Would the 1905 Revolution and the Russo-Japanese War still happen? Would the Russian monarchy/empire manage to survive (even if probably in a diminished power) if Nicholas II wasn't tsar? Would WWI even happen in the same manner as OTL?

It will go to Michael, he was the heir. It is said that he had less interest in ruling, so he would leave more things to ministers, this will be good or bad depending on ministers infuential at the time

 

[wcv215]

Would the 1905 Revolution and the Russo-Japanese War still happen?

The Russo-Japanese War mostly happened because the dithering of Nicholas’s government, so…maybe. Now Michael can’t be as bad as tsar, but it’s possible he also badly underestimated Japanin the lead-up. He would absolutely handle the aftermath if it did happen better though.

 

[wcv215]

It will go to Michael, he was the heir. It is said that he had less interest in ruling, so he would leave more things to ministers, this will be good or bad depending on ministers infuential at the time

While he might not have been greatly willing to take the throne, he only refused it because of circumstance OTL. Here he’s just the heir, and has no reason to decline.

 

[Fatt Shea]

Yes, he will become tsar.
@alexmilman will know about your original question more

While he might not have been greatly willing to take the throne, he only refused it because of circumstance OTL. Here he’s just the heir, and has no reason to decline.

 

[KingSweden24]

Who would be the unmarried Michael’s heir presumptive in such a case? Xenia’s oldest son Andrei or one of the myriad of Grand Duke cousins?

 

[Aphrodite]

Michael gets the throne but what happens next is an open question. Michael is a pretty blank slate with little known of his views on much.

He would probably keep most of the same advisors. They'd be getting pretty old since most had served under Alexander.

That doesn't tell us much as the Council of Ministers always presented their views to the Tsar as a majority and minority report. About a third of the time Nicholas and Alexander sided with the minority.

Foreign policy is really difficult. Michael would probably try and delay the Japanese War. Whether the Japanese let him is a different issue.

 

[Lalli]

Who would be the unmarried Michael’s heir presumptive in such a case? Xenia’s oldest son Andrei or one of the myriad of Grand Duke cousins?

Due Paulinian Law succession can't be gone through female lineage. Next on the line of succession would be Michael's uncle Vladimir and then Vladimir's son Cyril Vladimirovich.

 

[Cudymcar]

Michael was even less suited for the role of a tsar than Nicholas. His acquintances remember him as too gullible and naive. Sergei Witte puts it bluntly: Nicholas (not a genius himself) was much more smart and educated than Michael.

 

[KingSweden24]

Michael was even less suited for the role of a tsar than Nicholas. His acquintances remember him as too gullible and naive. Sergei Witte puts it bluntly: Nicholas (not a genius himself) was much more smart and educated than Michael.

OTOH, Michael might just defer to his ministers and go chill at his dacha instead of being the overly meddlesome dolt duo that Nicky and Alix were

 

[CountDVB]

Hmmm... I don't know much about Grand Duke Micheal though from the bits and pieces I read, he didn't seem to be an autocrat like Nicholas and in fact seemed a bit more down to earth. From what I got here:

"Misha keeps away from affairs of state, does not offer his opinions and, perhaps, hides behind the perception of him as a good-natured, unremarkable boy": Grand Duke Constantine Constantinovich of Russia, quoted in Crawford and Crawford, p. 27"

He seems to be like he would be pretty quiet. Quiet and capable along with likely being able to try and allow the Duma to grow more power and transition into a constitutional monarchy, making it easier on himself along with his sister-in-law and her family. I think he would still be wielding executive power while the Duma would have legislative and possibly judicial may come with another party. Alexandra may have this to retire from the public eye and hopefully get some peace with her and her family with her hopefully getting some sympathy for the loss of her husband.

As for the Russo-Japanese War, I think it was that Japan offered to recognize Russian dominance in Manchuria in exchange for recognition of Korea being within the Japanese sphere of influence. Micheal might go ahead with this and this leaves a pretty concern problem for the Koreans. Japan meanwhile doesn't get as much of a prestige boost though with the war likely being butterflied away.

The big question is whether Tsar Misha would be willing to maintain having Russia get involved in with Serbia vs Austria-Hungary that led to World War 1, though I suppose it also depends on the Duma. If he doesn't, well, then it's just Serbia vs Austria-Hungary unless Serbia agrees to Austria-Hungary's demands (OTL I think they did for all except 5 and 6, but I think it was because it would reveal the suspicions).

 

[alexmilman]

The Russo-Japanese War mostly happened because the dithering of Nicholas’s government, so…maybe. Now Michael can’t be as bad as tsar, but it’s possible he also badly underestimated Japanin the lead-up. He would absolutely handle the aftermath if it did happen better though.

Actually, the RJW happened because of the “decisiveness” aiming in a wrong direction: “Besobrazov’s clique”, after financial failure of the Russian Timber Industry Society operating on the Yalu River, advocated a very aggressive policy in Korea and Manchuria with a far-reaching idea of annexing Manchuria, which resulted in establishment of the vicegerency for the Far East in 1903 and basically triggered the war.

But, to be fair, the way to the whole sequence of the events had been paved by their strongest opponent, Witte, who insisted on the initial route of the TransSib through Manchuria (and was opposing the route on the Russian side of the Amur even after tye RJW), and was obsessed with the creation of the warm-water commercial port at Dalnii (which proved to be an expensive failure both on “warm-water” and “commercial” even before the RJW) and supportive of the insanity of creating a naval base in Port Arthur instead of Vladivostok. While, AFAIK, nobody questions Witte’s intellectual capacities and competence, it seems that he was considering the whole regional situation strictly within a framework of his Ministry of Finances (East China RR was bringing profit in gold while the branch along the Amur would have mostly strategic value and even this rather for tye WWI, which was hardly to predict even in 1905).

To spread credit/blame evenly, Russian naval establishment also was excessively enthusiastic with the Port Arthur adventure (“warm water port” was something of an idea fixe) and absolutely pointless naval buildup on the Pacific that was not justified by the realistic commercial interests (see Durnovo’s letter) but would inevitably alienate Japan, Britain and the US as an indicator of the potential aggression in the region at their expense. Now, one would assume that a marginal level of competence in the Russian Admiralcy would result in understanding that the only plausible way to maintain an operational modern fleet on the Pacific would be to develop Vladivostok by building the adequate repairing capacities there (in PA there was only a small tool shop and a dry dock incapable of housing a modern battleship) and the big warehouses storing the most obvious items, like barrels of the big guns). The plan was proposed but PA project won.

Army. The General Staff seemingly did close to nothing in the terms of gathering strategic intelligence, mapping the area and preparing the plans for supplying the troops during a possible war. As a result, an army was caught with its pants down on all possible accounts and with the split leadership on the top of everything. As for the leadership, the viceroy, Admiral Alexeev, was incompetent in the army affairs (and his competence in the naval ones is anybody’s guess) and Kuropatkin was a good chief of staff and commander of a military district, a reasonably descent (conducted some important reforms) Minister of War and absolutely horrible theater-level commander due to his indecisiveness (strategically, his idea was correct but he was consistently failing on operational level).

So, NII can be blamed for letting situation to deterriorate all the way to a disastrous war but he was pressured from all sides and information that he possessed was faulty on most accounts. His father would probably put a stop to the whole charade well before it deteriorated just as a matter of his general framework of the Russian policy but neither NII nor Michael were equal to their father.

Of we assume that Michael introduces a meaningful constitution soon after his accession, the chances of the RJW are still high: get rich fast on the Far East schema was attractive and the same goes for the naval buildup (look at the naval budgets approved by the Duma in OTL). The only benefit for the regime is that Emperor Michael can blame everything on the government and “Parliament”.

 

[alexmilman]

OTOH, Michael might just defer to his ministers and go chill at his dacha instead of being the overly meddlesome dolt duo that Nicky and Alix were

If he starts with creating a responsible government, then the credit for success going to him and the blame to his ministers. The problem with Nicky was not just him being meddlesome (his father was much more involved in the state affairs) but him being a weakling who was relatively easily caving to the pressure, especially if it was aimec in a wrong direction.