The Autonomous Province of Western Bosnia was a small unrecognized proto-state that existed in the northwest of Bosnia and Herzegovina between 1993 and 1995. It consisted mainly of the town of Velika Kladuša, its capital, as well as a few nearby villages and fields. It was proclaimed as a result of secessionist politics by Fikret Abdić against the central government of Alija Izetbegović during the Bosnian War. For a short time in 1995, it was known as the Republic of Western Bosnia, and was quickly overrun by Croatian-Bosnian forces in the same year in Operation storm. My question is: could the leader, Fikret Abdic have done anything differently that would've led Western Bosnia to actually survive post yugoslav wars into the modern day? Or was it destined for failure?
Any possible way for a surviving Autonomous province of Western Bosnia?
- Thread starter Angel Grace
- Start date
Well, could they have, with the help of Serbian Krajina forces taken the rest of Eastern Bosnia? Would that have made it better for them?
Depends who Abdić sides with and who leads Bosnia. I can't see it surviving as an independent state but perhaps as what it called itself, an autonomous province.
The region was greatly economically reliant on Abdić and his Agrokomerc, and grateful to him for the construction of infrastructure and schools in the region. He had a big local cult of personality. He had previously been popualr with Bosniaks generally, moreso than Alija Izetbegović before the war, but of course working with the Serbs and Croats rubbed Bosniaks the wrong way.
Option 1:
If he managed to garner more support within the region, particularly to take Bihać, he would be well enough positioned to be taken seriously in negotiations. Perhaps when Croatia signs the Washington Agreement in 1994, he would be involved. If he is, his best bet is to demand an autonomous province in the future Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, with roughly the territory of the OTL Una-Sana canton, as well as amnesty for himself and deals for his company. The issue with this is that in the moment this seems like a terrible idea, given that he's surrounded by Serb forces on almost all fronts, and if he holds Bihać, he doesn't face the same Bosniak threat he did IOTL following Croatia's alliance with the Bosniaks.
So, at the time it would see m to him a better choice to side firmly with the Serbs since he either loses Croat support and his only sea port or loses the support of the forces that surround him and his chance at independence. The former is bad but the latter is worse.
That said, he might go for some kind of neutrality, where if he agrees to rejoin Bosnia, he may demand that Western Bosnia become a UN demilitarized zone until the end of the war, but the Serbs, to put it lightly, didn't always care about UN safe zones (though I think that if they were certain Croat and Bosniak troops weren't moving through it, they may be content to let West Bosnia be).
Thus we end up with a Bosnia with essentially an extra half entity, not as autonomous as Republika Srpska, but more than a Canton.
Option 2:
Have the Serbs handily win the Bosnian war, and make Western Bosnia an autonomous province within Serbia. If the Serbs did win, this could happen, that said, it wouldn't be Abdić who caused that, and such a firm Serb victory may be hard to achieve realistically. Your best bet is probably an early agreement over a partition between Serbs and Croats, but separatism in Krajina makes that hard to come to.
Option 3:
Bosnia is partitioned between Serbia and Croatia following an agreement at Karađorđevo in 1991 and joint military operations, Western Bosnia falls under either Croatia or Serbia (I expect Croatia) but retains autonomy.
The region was greatly economically reliant on Abdić and his Agrokomerc, and grateful to him for the construction of infrastructure and schools in the region. He had a big local cult of personality. He had previously been popualr with Bosniaks generally, moreso than Alija Izetbegović before the war, but of course working with the Serbs and Croats rubbed Bosniaks the wrong way.
Option 1:
If he managed to garner more support within the region, particularly to take Bihać, he would be well enough positioned to be taken seriously in negotiations. Perhaps when Croatia signs the Washington Agreement in 1994, he would be involved. If he is, his best bet is to demand an autonomous province in the future Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, with roughly the territory of the OTL Una-Sana canton, as well as amnesty for himself and deals for his company. The issue with this is that in the moment this seems like a terrible idea, given that he's surrounded by Serb forces on almost all fronts, and if he holds Bihać, he doesn't face the same Bosniak threat he did IOTL following Croatia's alliance with the Bosniaks.
So, at the time it would see m to him a better choice to side firmly with the Serbs since he either loses Croat support and his only sea port or loses the support of the forces that surround him and his chance at independence. The former is bad but the latter is worse.
That said, he might go for some kind of neutrality, where if he agrees to rejoin Bosnia, he may demand that Western Bosnia become a UN demilitarized zone until the end of the war, but the Serbs, to put it lightly, didn't always care about UN safe zones (though I think that if they were certain Croat and Bosniak troops weren't moving through it, they may be content to let West Bosnia be).
Thus we end up with a Bosnia with essentially an extra half entity, not as autonomous as Republika Srpska, but more than a Canton.
Option 2:
Have the Serbs handily win the Bosnian war, and make Western Bosnia an autonomous province within Serbia. If the Serbs did win, this could happen, that said, it wouldn't be Abdić who caused that, and such a firm Serb victory may be hard to achieve realistically. Your best bet is probably an early agreement over a partition between Serbs and Croats, but separatism in Krajina makes that hard to come to.
Option 3:
Bosnia is partitioned between Serbia and Croatia following an agreement at Karađorđevo in 1991 and joint military operations, Western Bosnia falls under either Croatia or Serbia (I expect Croatia) but retains autonomy.