I'm hoping that Ukraine can avoid Euromaidan and remain close to Russia-Belarus. I guess only time will tell...
Indonesia ATL: The Presidency of Try Sutrisno (1997-)
- Thread starter GSD310
- Start date
Note: the following is in the style of MCU’s post-credit scenes.
—— —
“I had hoped that I had been clear in signalling my intentions to you”, said Harmoko “Perhaps I haven’t been clear enough, Mr. President.”
“Those intentions have been clear to me for some time, Mr. Chairman”, replied Try “But for the sake of the Government and the Coalition that supports it, I must ask you not to go ahead with it.”
To Try’s surprise, tears began welling up in Harmoko’s eyes.
“My contributions to the election campaign…to the PKPI…” Harmoko stammered “Haven’t I earned your trust, President Try?”
A few short years ago, the answer would have been a resounding no. But times have changed…
“You have my trust” said Try “But now I want to know whether or not I have yours…”
———
“It is good to see you” said Brotherly and Guide of the Revolution Muammar Gaddafi “You are truly committed to your cause to have come here.”
“I thank you for the support that you have given to us in the past and which you want to give to us in the future” replied Seth Rumkorem “But if you have done your research, you must certainly know that we are broken into various factions and that this makes it impossible for us to come together and launch a united effort.”
“Ah but you will unite”, said Gaddafi with a smile “Once you have seen that this will be your best opportunity to achieve your goals.”
Gaddafi stood up from his chair and guided Rumkorem into a dining room where an old man was waiting for them at the table. The old man stood up.
“This is an old friend of mine, Hasan Di Tiro”, introduced Gaddafi.
“The GAM’s Hasan Di Tiro?!” exclaimed Rumkorem.
“Brother Hasan, can I introduce you to Seth Rumkorem of the OPM”, introduced Gaddafi “Now, I’m just going to sit here and listen to both of you discuss various matters. But allow me to get you two started: both of you want to establish independent nations by breaking free from the same oppressor…”
Rumkorem and Hasan Di Tiro both looked at Gaddafi as he paused.
“My question is, why don’t both of your organizations start working together?” asked Gaddafi with a grin.
———
Still on holidays but got “itchy”
On Gaddafi’s support for Acehnese separatists and his close relations with Hasan Di Tiro: https://www.kompasiana.com/amp/atjehcw/jejak-sejarah-antara-aceh-dan-libya_5508e0c5a33311c5462e3921
In time, this is all going to come together…you’ll see.
—— —
“I had hoped that I had been clear in signalling my intentions to you”, said Harmoko “Perhaps I haven’t been clear enough, Mr. President.”
“Those intentions have been clear to me for some time, Mr. Chairman”, replied Try “But for the sake of the Government and the Coalition that supports it, I must ask you not to go ahead with it.”
To Try’s surprise, tears began welling up in Harmoko’s eyes.
“My contributions to the election campaign…to the PKPI…” Harmoko stammered “Haven’t I earned your trust, President Try?”
A few short years ago, the answer would have been a resounding no. But times have changed…
“You have my trust” said Try “But now I want to know whether or not I have yours…”
———
“It is good to see you” said Brotherly and Guide of the Revolution Muammar Gaddafi “You are truly committed to your cause to have come here.”
“I thank you for the support that you have given to us in the past and which you want to give to us in the future” replied Seth Rumkorem “But if you have done your research, you must certainly know that we are broken into various factions and that this makes it impossible for us to come together and launch a united effort.”
“Ah but you will unite”, said Gaddafi with a smile “Once you have seen that this will be your best opportunity to achieve your goals.”
Gaddafi stood up from his chair and guided Rumkorem into a dining room where an old man was waiting for them at the table. The old man stood up.
“This is an old friend of mine, Hasan Di Tiro”, introduced Gaddafi.
“The GAM’s Hasan Di Tiro?!” exclaimed Rumkorem.
“Brother Hasan, can I introduce you to Seth Rumkorem of the OPM”, introduced Gaddafi “Now, I’m just going to sit here and listen to both of you discuss various matters. But allow me to get you two started: both of you want to establish independent nations by breaking free from the same oppressor…”
Rumkorem and Hasan Di Tiro both looked at Gaddafi as he paused.
“My question is, why don’t both of your organizations start working together?” asked Gaddafi with a grin.
———
Still on holidays but got “itchy”
On Gaddafi’s support for Acehnese separatists and his close relations with Hasan Di Tiro: https://www.kompasiana.com/amp/atjehcw/jejak-sejarah-antara-aceh-dan-libya_5508e0c5a33311c5462e3921
In time, this is all going to come together…you’ll see.
173: Things Go Wrong At The Wrong Time
7th May 2002 (Day 21 of the Election Campaign):
President Try Sutrisno and his entourage departed from Halim Perdanakusuma Airport in the morning. As the Presidential Airplane left, all eyes were on State Secretary Edi Sudrajat who will not be making the trip. Edi said that he had other matters to attend to in Jakarta.
Upon landing at Pekanbaru, the Presidential entourage received the official welcome by Governor of Riau Dunidja. His first stop was to the Caltex Riau Polytechnical School where accompanied by Minister of Education Fakry Gaffar, Minister of Health Azrul Azwar, and State Minister of Urban Development Ridwan Hisjam the President inaugurated the following:
*The Caltex Riau Polytechnical School
*The Muhammadiyah University Riau
*Awal Bros Hospital in Batam
*The Mal Pekanbaru Shopping Mall
In Jakarta, Chairman of the PKPI National Campaign Hendropriyono as images of the President making a speech extolling the government’s successes in Riau caused a television broadcast to focus away from a campaign walkabout made by Secretary of PKPB ZA Maulani. He hoped to see more of this during the trip.
The President then toured Mal Pekanbaru and shook hands with visitors, he had lunch with Dunidja and the top officials from the provincial government and after a break at the hotel, he attended an event held by PKPI DPR Member Jakob Tobing. The event was a campaign disguised as a discussion forum with businessmen and other community figures attending the event, donating money, and getting a picture with the President. Other than the President and Jakob Tobing, Minister of Agriculture Sarwono Kusumaatmadja also attended. All of the officials involved talked up the achievements of the government.
“We’re just getting started with sago, we’re just getting started with encouraging farmers to add value to their agricultural produce, we need more time and we need your support”, said Sarwono.
Afterwards, the President shook hands with Jakob Tobing. Sarwono praised Jakob Tobing’s long career saying that barring a hiatus between 1997 and 1998 when he returned to the DPR, he had been in the DPR since 1968. Sarwono wrily commented to the President that “Jakob has what it takes to hold the gavel”.
That night as the President went over the day’s events with Cabinet Secretary Hayono Isman who had accompanied him on the trip in Edi’s place. He asked Hayono what he thought about what Sarwono said. Hayono said that whilst Jakob Tobing was a great party member, “there is a group of us in the party” who would prefer Chairman of the PKPI Basofi Sudirman to be the next one to hold the gavel. Hayono reasoned that Basofi had provided leadership as the PKPI starts to build itself and that Basofi is good at attracting voters, singing “Not All Men” on the campaign trail and getting good reviews.
22,344
No C-130 Hercules flights as ABRI Headquarters decide to wait until the two Pelni ships and the Kolinlamil ship are maintained and ready to go again.
8th May 2002 (Day 22 of the Election Campaign):
At Cendana Street, Chairwoman of the PKPB Tutut Soeharto, Secretary of Golkar ZA Maulani, Treasurer of Golkar Akbar Tandjung, Leader of the PKPB in the DPR Hartono and Chairman of the PKPB National Campaign Prabowo Subianto were gathered to discuss the PKPB’s plans for the final week for the election campaign. They found themselves distracted however by what they were seeing on the screen. The President was in East Kutai, East Kalimantan where, accompanied by Minister of Transmigration Indra Bambang Utoyo he inaugurated transmigration settlements in:
*Maloy, East Kutai, East Kalimantan
*Cahaya Baru, Batola, South Kalimantan
*Subah, Sambas, West Kalimantan
*Lamunti, Kapuas, Central Kalimantan
After making a speech, the President handed out land certificates for the transmigrants there and announced that they have all been registered to vote at the Election. It was as the television broadcasted images of the President mingling with the transmigrants that it was unceremoniously turned off by Tutut.
The meeting got underway and began with Tutut getting agreement from the meeting that they will increase the amount of television advertising. Prabowo cautioned against this saying that as it stands, they have already increased the amount of television advertising but Tutut would have none of it. Hartono backed Tutut saying that there needs to be a way to counter the President and the “inevitable publicity he draws”.
The surprise of the meeting was when Akbar Tandjung spoke out expressing discomfort at the “religious themes” the PKPB campaign has adopted. Akbar cited as his example the way in which “Why is the government allergic to the term Sharia?” is repeated over and over again on the campaign trail.
“Could we not go back to focusing on getting the rural vote instead?” asked Akbar as he concluded his point.
Prabowo said that the PKPB’s just about secured all the rural votes that it can because the PKPI’s run a stronger than expected campaign to get the rural vote with Chairman of the DPR Harmoko leading the way.
“If we can’t go after the PKPI’s voters anymore, we have to go after the PPP’s voters and that means playing the religion card”, said Prabowo.
Akbar nodded but did not seem to be satisfied.
Elsewhere in Jakarta, Edi sat at a boardroom accompanied by Minister of Home Affairs Harsudiono Hartas, Minister of Finance Mar’ie Muhammad, and Minister of Mining and Energy Djiteng Marsudi sat across the table from Freeport’s Board who were led by CEO Adrianto Machrabie. Adrianto read out a long-drawn-out statement, but then came the part they were all waiting for.
“Freeport accepts the royalty rates offered by the government and amendments to the contract guaranteeing that Freeport’s mines will not be closed unless there is clear evidence of illegal actions on the part of Freeport or if Freeport’s actions are endangering the country. There are therefore no more outstanding matters for Freeport and the Government of the Republic of Indonesia to settle…”
Edi, Harsudiono, Mar’ie, and Djiteng glanced at each other with a victorious smile. 2% annual divestment beginning 1st April 2003 (thought this was nothing special because it should already have been their contractual obligations), more royalties, no more “unofficial fees” and/or bribes, another smelter, and Freeport to undergo another environmental impact assessment, it was all a big victory.
But Adrianto was not finished yet and there was something on his expression that made Edi dread what he was about going to say next.
“We have one more condition that we would like to be fulfilled, that there will be an embargo on what we have agreed to here today until the results of the election has been made final”, said Adrianto “We don’t want Freeport to become an election issue, I’m sure you will agree that this is a reasonable request.”
22,344
21,544
The 6 longbodied C-130 Hercules are in action again with two of the aircrafts making a second trip during the night to pick up the evacuees. The Kolinlamil and the two Pelni ships, having undergone routine maintenance, have departed for India. Chief of ABRI Intelligence Agency Ian Santoso Perdanakusuma goes on a visit to Australia with a delegation led by Air Force Chief of Staff Ali Munsiri Rappe but his itinerary which includes to references to “our refugee friends” is leaked and undergoes scrutiny by intelligence agencies in Myanmar and China.
At the Cahaya Bayu Transmigration Settlement he just inaugurated in East Kalimantan, the the President were most keen to meet were not those with whom he was shaking hands with in front of the camera. Those who would be known in the coming days as "unidentified transmigrants".
They did not speak a word of Indonesian though they immediately stood at attention like soldiers and saluted the President when they saw him. They spoke in a language which the President did not understand and with the benefit of a translator, it became known to the President that the words said by these “unidentified transmigrants” were “General Shwe Mann sends his regards to General Try Sutrisno”.
9th May 2002 (Day 23 of the Election Campaign):
There was no campaign activity today, this being Ascension Day. Though there was a lot of activity in Jakarta as the political elite had returned to the capital for the holiday to regroup, there being only days left in the campaign.
The PPP held a Central Leadership Council meeting. In it, Chairman of the PPP Matori Abdul Djalil prevailed over Chairman of the PPP National Campaign Hamzah Haz and his supporters. The latter pushed Matori to ask the President to specify which offices PPP members will hold in the next term but Matori countered that the PPP will be “stepping over the line” given that the President has given an extra seat in the cabinet for the PPP as a token of good faith in the February 2002 reshuffle.
The President was no different, having returned from East Kalimantan the previous night. He had his first meeting of the day with Edi and Harsudiono. They reported to him about what had happened yesterday regarding Freeport. The President facepalmed at this.
“What’s their game?” asked the President.
“It means we don’t get to announce to the nation that we got a deal with Freeport and have this deal give a positive effect to the PKPI’s campaign, Mr. President”, said Harsudiono “As far as what their game is, well they’re hoping the PKPI loses the election which means a greater chance that you won’t get enough votes in the MPR.”
“What’s the point of wanting to see Try lose when they’ve already struck a deal with us?” asked Edi.
“Because with Try out of office, they can just re-open negotiations with President Tutut and get a different deal with them”, said Harsudiono "Maybe even cancel the deal they just agreed with us."
Edi and Harsudiono then sat in on the President’s meeting with Chairman of the PKPI Basofi Sudirman and Chairman of the PKPI National Campaign Hendropriyono. Hendropriyono reported that the President’s visit has once again helped energize support for the PKPI. The President thanked Hendropriyono but said that he will be unable to be participate as the campaign winds down because of “his duties” and instructs Hendropriyono that “whatever itinerary you’ve prepared for me, you can give to the Chairman of the DPR”.
The next topic the President addressed was about PKPI members coming to him to promote different people “who will next hold the gavel”. He told Basofi to maintain discipline in the PKPI saying that the party should focus about winning the election and not talk about who will be the Chairman of the DPR. Basofi sheepishly apologized saying that he did not give permission to anyone to promote his name as the next Chairman of the DPR.
At the end of the meeting, Hendropriyono approached the President and tried to persuade him to go on the campaign trail again.
“Mr. President, I’m saying this not only because I’m in charge of your party’s national campaign”, said Hendropriyono “But also because I’m uncomfortable that the PKPB are playing the religion card and that we’ll be seeing people who will be bringing the Extreme Right worldview with them inside the chambers of the DPR.”
“I expect nothing less from you, Hendro”, replied the President “But my duties will keep me busy again, I trust that you will make sure the last few days of the PKPI’s campaign go smoothly.”
It was a national holiday, people were at home, and the increased PKPB advertising slots that Tutut had ordered and bought began to take effect. By nightfall, however television networks and the Department of Information, Post, and Telecommunications were flooded by calls, faxes, and emails about these ads.
21,544
20,544
The 6 longbodied C-130 Hercules are in action again with four of the aircrafts now making a second trip during the night to pick up the evacuees.
10th May 2002 (Day 24 of the Election Campaign):
Minister of Information, Post, and Telecommunications Oka Mahendra came out of a meeting with the President. Oka Mahendra said that in the last 24 hours, there have been literally tens of thousands of complaints about “the oversaturation of PKPB advertising”, sometimes to the point of there being a PKPB advertising at every ad break. Oka picked up an example of one the complaints, an anonymous fax saying “I was going to go Golput on Election Day, but if the PKPB keeps this up, I might just show up to the polling station and vote for the PKPI to spite them”.
Oka Mahendra said that the President has instructed that it is now for the television networks themselves to decide what to do with the PKPB advertising. If they would like to continue broadcasting the PKPB advertising that will be up to them though whatever complaints they get will be their problem. If they would not like to continue broadcasting the PKPB advertising, that will also be their choice but they will have to give the PKPB a refund.
Smiling when asked if this development favored the PKPI, Oka Mahendra said that this was why the President had taken the decision that has been taken. If the government decided to cancel the ads it will be accused as being impartial in the election.
That afternoon, Tutut Soeharto held a press conference at the PKPB National Headquarters. She began by reading a statement saying that she will respect whatever decision the television networks make as regards the PKPB advertising. Tutut also apologized if there are those in the country who feel that the PKPB’s advertising was “a lot to stomach”. Then Tutut went off-script.
“For the sake of balance, I want to call upon all the television networks to also stop covering the various projects the President has been inaugurating throughout the election campaign because such coverage will only be to the benefit of the PKPI”, Tutut said.
Prabowo helplessly signaled for his sister-in-law to stop but was ignored as Tutut carried on complaining about the coverage given to the President. Frustrated, Prabowo slammed his mobile phone when he got to the office. Though his close associate and PKPB DPR candidate Fadli Zon reminded him that the PKPB was in the lead, Prabowo shook his head angrily.
“Sure, we’re in the lead but she’s giving the PKPI a chance to catch up again”, said Prabowo mournfully.
20,544
19,544
The 6 longbodied C-130 Hercules are in action again with four of the aircrafts now making a second trip during the night to pick up the evacuees.
---
Title of the update refers to things going wrong for both Try/PKPI (Getting a deal on Freeport but not being able to take advantage of it for the Election) and Tutut/PKPB (Getting complaints because they bought too many advertising slots).
A deal on Freeport though Freeport itself then decided to turn around and rain on its parade. The ownership structure of Freeport as of this point ITTL are still similar to OTL’s: Freeport 81.28%, Government 9.36%, and Indocopper Investama 9.36%. Indocopper Investama originally owned by Aburizal Bakrie, but Bakrie sold a majority of his shares to Freeport in 1992 and then sold the remainder to Bob Hasan’s PT. Nusamba in 1997. Don’t worry, we’ll get into Indocopper’s shares soon enough.
Hendropriyono is someone other than Try with a “record” when it comes to violent crackdowns on Islamists goes. Try has the Tanjung Priok Incident while Hendropriyono has the Talangsari Incident. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Talangsari_incident
On Prabowo slamming his mobile phone: https://nasional.tempo.co/read/525213/ihwal-prabowo-melempar-hp-jika-marah
President Try Sutrisno and his entourage departed from Halim Perdanakusuma Airport in the morning. As the Presidential Airplane left, all eyes were on State Secretary Edi Sudrajat who will not be making the trip. Edi said that he had other matters to attend to in Jakarta.
Upon landing at Pekanbaru, the Presidential entourage received the official welcome by Governor of Riau Dunidja. His first stop was to the Caltex Riau Polytechnical School where accompanied by Minister of Education Fakry Gaffar, Minister of Health Azrul Azwar, and State Minister of Urban Development Ridwan Hisjam the President inaugurated the following:
*The Caltex Riau Polytechnical School
*The Muhammadiyah University Riau
*Awal Bros Hospital in Batam
*The Mal Pekanbaru Shopping Mall
In Jakarta, Chairman of the PKPI National Campaign Hendropriyono as images of the President making a speech extolling the government’s successes in Riau caused a television broadcast to focus away from a campaign walkabout made by Secretary of PKPB ZA Maulani. He hoped to see more of this during the trip.
The President then toured Mal Pekanbaru and shook hands with visitors, he had lunch with Dunidja and the top officials from the provincial government and after a break at the hotel, he attended an event held by PKPI DPR Member Jakob Tobing. The event was a campaign disguised as a discussion forum with businessmen and other community figures attending the event, donating money, and getting a picture with the President. Other than the President and Jakob Tobing, Minister of Agriculture Sarwono Kusumaatmadja also attended. All of the officials involved talked up the achievements of the government.
“We’re just getting started with sago, we’re just getting started with encouraging farmers to add value to their agricultural produce, we need more time and we need your support”, said Sarwono.
Afterwards, the President shook hands with Jakob Tobing. Sarwono praised Jakob Tobing’s long career saying that barring a hiatus between 1997 and 1998 when he returned to the DPR, he had been in the DPR since 1968. Sarwono wrily commented to the President that “Jakob has what it takes to hold the gavel”.
That night as the President went over the day’s events with Cabinet Secretary Hayono Isman who had accompanied him on the trip in Edi’s place. He asked Hayono what he thought about what Sarwono said. Hayono said that whilst Jakob Tobing was a great party member, “there is a group of us in the party” who would prefer Chairman of the PKPI Basofi Sudirman to be the next one to hold the gavel. Hayono reasoned that Basofi had provided leadership as the PKPI starts to build itself and that Basofi is good at attracting voters, singing “Not All Men” on the campaign trail and getting good reviews.
22,344
No C-130 Hercules flights as ABRI Headquarters decide to wait until the two Pelni ships and the Kolinlamil ship are maintained and ready to go again.
8th May 2002 (Day 22 of the Election Campaign):
At Cendana Street, Chairwoman of the PKPB Tutut Soeharto, Secretary of Golkar ZA Maulani, Treasurer of Golkar Akbar Tandjung, Leader of the PKPB in the DPR Hartono and Chairman of the PKPB National Campaign Prabowo Subianto were gathered to discuss the PKPB’s plans for the final week for the election campaign. They found themselves distracted however by what they were seeing on the screen. The President was in East Kutai, East Kalimantan where, accompanied by Minister of Transmigration Indra Bambang Utoyo he inaugurated transmigration settlements in:
*Maloy, East Kutai, East Kalimantan
*Cahaya Baru, Batola, South Kalimantan
*Subah, Sambas, West Kalimantan
*Lamunti, Kapuas, Central Kalimantan
After making a speech, the President handed out land certificates for the transmigrants there and announced that they have all been registered to vote at the Election. It was as the television broadcasted images of the President mingling with the transmigrants that it was unceremoniously turned off by Tutut.
The meeting got underway and began with Tutut getting agreement from the meeting that they will increase the amount of television advertising. Prabowo cautioned against this saying that as it stands, they have already increased the amount of television advertising but Tutut would have none of it. Hartono backed Tutut saying that there needs to be a way to counter the President and the “inevitable publicity he draws”.
The surprise of the meeting was when Akbar Tandjung spoke out expressing discomfort at the “religious themes” the PKPB campaign has adopted. Akbar cited as his example the way in which “Why is the government allergic to the term Sharia?” is repeated over and over again on the campaign trail.
“Could we not go back to focusing on getting the rural vote instead?” asked Akbar as he concluded his point.
Prabowo said that the PKPB’s just about secured all the rural votes that it can because the PKPI’s run a stronger than expected campaign to get the rural vote with Chairman of the DPR Harmoko leading the way.
“If we can’t go after the PKPI’s voters anymore, we have to go after the PPP’s voters and that means playing the religion card”, said Prabowo.
Akbar nodded but did not seem to be satisfied.
Elsewhere in Jakarta, Edi sat at a boardroom accompanied by Minister of Home Affairs Harsudiono Hartas, Minister of Finance Mar’ie Muhammad, and Minister of Mining and Energy Djiteng Marsudi sat across the table from Freeport’s Board who were led by CEO Adrianto Machrabie. Adrianto read out a long-drawn-out statement, but then came the part they were all waiting for.
“Freeport accepts the royalty rates offered by the government and amendments to the contract guaranteeing that Freeport’s mines will not be closed unless there is clear evidence of illegal actions on the part of Freeport or if Freeport’s actions are endangering the country. There are therefore no more outstanding matters for Freeport and the Government of the Republic of Indonesia to settle…”
Edi, Harsudiono, Mar’ie, and Djiteng glanced at each other with a victorious smile. 2% annual divestment beginning 1st April 2003 (thought this was nothing special because it should already have been their contractual obligations), more royalties, no more “unofficial fees” and/or bribes, another smelter, and Freeport to undergo another environmental impact assessment, it was all a big victory.
But Adrianto was not finished yet and there was something on his expression that made Edi dread what he was about going to say next.
“We have one more condition that we would like to be fulfilled, that there will be an embargo on what we have agreed to here today until the results of the election has been made final”, said Adrianto “We don’t want Freeport to become an election issue, I’m sure you will agree that this is a reasonable request.”
21,544
The 6 longbodied C-130 Hercules are in action again with two of the aircrafts making a second trip during the night to pick up the evacuees. The Kolinlamil and the two Pelni ships, having undergone routine maintenance, have departed for India. Chief of ABRI Intelligence Agency Ian Santoso Perdanakusuma goes on a visit to Australia with a delegation led by Air Force Chief of Staff Ali Munsiri Rappe but his itinerary which includes to references to “our refugee friends” is leaked and undergoes scrutiny by intelligence agencies in Myanmar and China.
At the Cahaya Bayu Transmigration Settlement he just inaugurated in East Kalimantan, the the President were most keen to meet were not those with whom he was shaking hands with in front of the camera. Those who would be known in the coming days as "unidentified transmigrants".
They did not speak a word of Indonesian though they immediately stood at attention like soldiers and saluted the President when they saw him. They spoke in a language which the President did not understand and with the benefit of a translator, it became known to the President that the words said by these “unidentified transmigrants” were “General Shwe Mann sends his regards to General Try Sutrisno”.
9th May 2002 (Day 23 of the Election Campaign):
There was no campaign activity today, this being Ascension Day. Though there was a lot of activity in Jakarta as the political elite had returned to the capital for the holiday to regroup, there being only days left in the campaign.
The PPP held a Central Leadership Council meeting. In it, Chairman of the PPP Matori Abdul Djalil prevailed over Chairman of the PPP National Campaign Hamzah Haz and his supporters. The latter pushed Matori to ask the President to specify which offices PPP members will hold in the next term but Matori countered that the PPP will be “stepping over the line” given that the President has given an extra seat in the cabinet for the PPP as a token of good faith in the February 2002 reshuffle.
The President was no different, having returned from East Kalimantan the previous night. He had his first meeting of the day with Edi and Harsudiono. They reported to him about what had happened yesterday regarding Freeport. The President facepalmed at this.
“What’s their game?” asked the President.
“It means we don’t get to announce to the nation that we got a deal with Freeport and have this deal give a positive effect to the PKPI’s campaign, Mr. President”, said Harsudiono “As far as what their game is, well they’re hoping the PKPI loses the election which means a greater chance that you won’t get enough votes in the MPR.”
“What’s the point of wanting to see Try lose when they’ve already struck a deal with us?” asked Edi.
“Because with Try out of office, they can just re-open negotiations with President Tutut and get a different deal with them”, said Harsudiono "Maybe even cancel the deal they just agreed with us."
Edi and Harsudiono then sat in on the President’s meeting with Chairman of the PKPI Basofi Sudirman and Chairman of the PKPI National Campaign Hendropriyono. Hendropriyono reported that the President’s visit has once again helped energize support for the PKPI. The President thanked Hendropriyono but said that he will be unable to be participate as the campaign winds down because of “his duties” and instructs Hendropriyono that “whatever itinerary you’ve prepared for me, you can give to the Chairman of the DPR”.
The next topic the President addressed was about PKPI members coming to him to promote different people “who will next hold the gavel”. He told Basofi to maintain discipline in the PKPI saying that the party should focus about winning the election and not talk about who will be the Chairman of the DPR. Basofi sheepishly apologized saying that he did not give permission to anyone to promote his name as the next Chairman of the DPR.
At the end of the meeting, Hendropriyono approached the President and tried to persuade him to go on the campaign trail again.
“Mr. President, I’m saying this not only because I’m in charge of your party’s national campaign”, said Hendropriyono “But also because I’m uncomfortable that the PKPB are playing the religion card and that we’ll be seeing people who will be bringing the Extreme Right worldview with them inside the chambers of the DPR.”
“I expect nothing less from you, Hendro”, replied the President “But my duties will keep me busy again, I trust that you will make sure the last few days of the PKPI’s campaign go smoothly.”
It was a national holiday, people were at home, and the increased PKPB advertising slots that Tutut had ordered and bought began to take effect. By nightfall, however television networks and the Department of Information, Post, and Telecommunications were flooded by calls, faxes, and emails about these ads.
20,544
The 6 longbodied C-130 Hercules are in action again with four of the aircrafts now making a second trip during the night to pick up the evacuees.
10th May 2002 (Day 24 of the Election Campaign):
Minister of Information, Post, and Telecommunications Oka Mahendra came out of a meeting with the President. Oka Mahendra said that in the last 24 hours, there have been literally tens of thousands of complaints about “the oversaturation of PKPB advertising”, sometimes to the point of there being a PKPB advertising at every ad break. Oka picked up an example of one the complaints, an anonymous fax saying “I was going to go Golput on Election Day, but if the PKPB keeps this up, I might just show up to the polling station and vote for the PKPI to spite them”.
Oka Mahendra said that the President has instructed that it is now for the television networks themselves to decide what to do with the PKPB advertising. If they would like to continue broadcasting the PKPB advertising that will be up to them though whatever complaints they get will be their problem. If they would not like to continue broadcasting the PKPB advertising, that will also be their choice but they will have to give the PKPB a refund.
Smiling when asked if this development favored the PKPI, Oka Mahendra said that this was why the President had taken the decision that has been taken. If the government decided to cancel the ads it will be accused as being impartial in the election.
That afternoon, Tutut Soeharto held a press conference at the PKPB National Headquarters. She began by reading a statement saying that she will respect whatever decision the television networks make as regards the PKPB advertising. Tutut also apologized if there are those in the country who feel that the PKPB’s advertising was “a lot to stomach”. Then Tutut went off-script.
“For the sake of balance, I want to call upon all the television networks to also stop covering the various projects the President has been inaugurating throughout the election campaign because such coverage will only be to the benefit of the PKPI”, Tutut said.
Prabowo helplessly signaled for his sister-in-law to stop but was ignored as Tutut carried on complaining about the coverage given to the President. Frustrated, Prabowo slammed his mobile phone when he got to the office. Though his close associate and PKPB DPR candidate Fadli Zon reminded him that the PKPB was in the lead, Prabowo shook his head angrily.
“Sure, we’re in the lead but she’s giving the PKPI a chance to catch up again”, said Prabowo mournfully.
19,544
The 6 longbodied C-130 Hercules are in action again with four of the aircrafts now making a second trip during the night to pick up the evacuees.
---
Title of the update refers to things going wrong for both Try/PKPI (Getting a deal on Freeport but not being able to take advantage of it for the Election) and Tutut/PKPB (Getting complaints because they bought too many advertising slots).
A deal on Freeport though Freeport itself then decided to turn around and rain on its parade. The ownership structure of Freeport as of this point ITTL are still similar to OTL’s: Freeport 81.28%, Government 9.36%, and Indocopper Investama 9.36%. Indocopper Investama originally owned by Aburizal Bakrie, but Bakrie sold a majority of his shares to Freeport in 1992 and then sold the remainder to Bob Hasan’s PT. Nusamba in 1997. Don’t worry, we’ll get into Indocopper’s shares soon enough.
Hendropriyono is someone other than Try with a “record” when it comes to violent crackdowns on Islamists goes. Try has the Tanjung Priok Incident while Hendropriyono has the Talangsari Incident. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Talangsari_incident
On Prabowo slamming his mobile phone: https://nasional.tempo.co/read/525213/ihwal-prabowo-melempar-hp-jika-marah
Deleted member 170721
Great update as always! However, I have the feeling that the evacuation is proceeding too smoothly: maybe a C-130 crashes or one of the ferry ships brake down while making the trip between India and Indonesia?
Well idk if it will be again smoothly, since the australian leak. I assume its not common to watch lots of Hercules flying btw India and Indonesia, and more than one asked the same.
Unless is part of a wider counter intelligence operation to hide it on plain sight, like filling the square with elephants.
Unless is part of a wider counter intelligence operation to hide it on plain sight, like filling the square with elephants.
There’s a possibility that one would have a clear picture if someone put the clues correctly. In particular also when the press saw the President hand shacking with someone that is obviously a Myanmar soldier. It’s just a matter of time now that Myanmar and China set forth their reaction. Also wonder what’s the domestic reaction since there’s an election going on.
I personally think that the time has come for Indonesia to start to expand its armed forces...
@GSD310 is there any chance that in TTL Russia ratifies the Border Treaty with Estonia in 2005? I know that this may sound like something unimportant but for Estonia, it would be a huge boost for its stability and security. Maybe ITTL 2005 the Estonians don't add a reference to the 1920 Treaty when they ratify it not to hunger a Resurgent Russia and so Russia ratifies the treaty?
174: The Older Brother's Blessing
Will address the comments above, but in the meantime...
11th May 2002 (Day 25 of the Election Campaign):
With a bright smile on his face, Chairman of the DPR Harmoko accompanied by Minister of Public Works Rachmat Witoelar inaugurated the Surabaya-Mojokerto Toll Road on behalf of the President. Interviewed afterwards, Harmoko expressed his pride that he had been chosen to represent the President. When asked if this was a reward for his strong performance campaigning in rural areas, Harmoko said that whether his performance has been strong enough will be seen in the election results. Harmoko also ridiculed Chairwoman of the PKPB Tutut Soeharto’s idea that the President’s activities should not be broadcasted even during an election campaign.
At a campaign event in Bali with Minister of Tourism Soeyono, Chairman of the PKPI National Campaign Hendropriyono watched on with a cheerful mood. Hendropriyono said that he’s just happy that the main thing the other side has got going for it is their funds but now they cannot use it because people are sick of being bombarded by the PKPB advertising. When asked if the PKPI can win the election, Hendropriyono said that it will be a struggle but they have a better chance.
Back in Jakarta, President Try Sutrisno was giving an official welcome to Prime Minister of Japan Taro Aso who had gone to visit the United States and Australia before he arrived in Indonesia. Once the ceremonies and the statements were out of the way, Try and Aso retreated into the Presidential Palace for their intial talks. Try was accompanied by Minister of Foreign Affairs Ginandjar Kartasasmita and State Secretary Edi Sudrajat while Aso was accompanied by Minister of Foreign Affairs Junichiro Koizumi and Chief Cabinet Secretary Takeo Hiranuma.
The initial talks covered strategic issues and proved to be a roller coaster. Within the first few minutes, Try and Aso quickly found agreement in their stance on China with Aso expressing his concern that China had increased its military spending, that this increased spending was not transparent and that this made China a threat. After Koichi Kato’s reluctance to “anger” China, Try felt nothing but relief.
The two picked each other’s brains on China. Try said that his objective is for ASEAN to move as one on strategic matters so that it can serve its own interests rather than that of the United States or Russia’s. Unfortunately, this objective seems to have clashed with China’s goal of wanting to expand its influence in Southeast Asia citing its attempted interference in the Vietnamese Communist Party National Congress and its immediate support for Gen. Khin Nyunt’s regime in Myanmar.
“We realize it is presumptuous for us to take on China one-on-one but this is why it’s become more important that ASEAN move as one if not on the other big questions, then at least on China”, explained Try “At the moment, though, we’re in a situation in the region where there are Southeast Asian nations that agree with us, that don’t agree with us and that are indifferent.”
Aso then responded with a comment that floored Try because it got him to start thinking about possibilities.
“I don’t think its presumptuous, Mr. President”, replied Aso “Indonesia’s economy is only slightly behind Russia’s. If Russia can get the United States to worry about turning its back, then it is well within Indonesia’s capabilities to cause trouble for China. My visit here is to ensure that Indonesia has even more capability to cause trouble for China.”
Aso then explained things from Japan’s point of view which boiled down to the fact that it was the second largest economy but it being “only a matter of time” before China overtakes it; though this did not meant he wanted Japan to roll over. The main problem he faced at the moment was that the current state of affairs would not last long. The circumstances of his predecessor’s resignation as prime minister was such that upon taking office, Aso immediately faced demands by the public to hold an election. The public outrage was such that Aso was only able to delay holding the election until after the Football World Cup at which point, Aso said, it is likely the LDP will lose.
Trying to be as polite as possible, Edi asked what would happen if the LDP lost. Hiranuma said that the DPJ will come to power and its leader, Yukio Hatoyama will be prime minister. Edi asked what would Hatoyama’s foreign policy look like. Koizumi smiled ruefully as he said that Hatoyama and the DPJ were pro-China in their foreign policy.
Aso said that at the present time, with limited time and a pro-China government on the horizon, what he wants to do is ensure that “someone will keep China busy” for however long his party will be out of power.
Ginandjar wondered whether India or South Korea would not have been better choices. Koizumi shook his head saying that India and South Korea are concerned about China because China being “off their backs” means they can focus on their respective primary security threats, in this case Pakistan and North Korea.
“Why us, Mr. Prime Minister? Why not someone else?” asked Try.
“I’ve always known that you were serious about China ever since you came to visit Japan last year and my predecessor didn’t know what to do you with you, Mr. President” replied Aso “But I knew I’m making the right call when a week ago in Washington. I was in the Oval Office with McCain and he showed me what the CIA found out about you…the coup in Myanmar, the missing general and his men, you’re evacuating them into Indonesia aren’t you?”
---
That night, Aso attended a dinner held by the Jakarta Japan Club. In his keynote address, Aso urged overseas Japanese living in Indonesia to take advantage of the favorable economic climate in Indonesia and invest in it. Aso said that Indonesia is a nation of great strategic value for Japan and that by investing in Indonesia, overseas Japanese will also strengthen Japan.
Try watched the broadcast of Aso’s speech on the TVRI in his office as Edi walked in with more memos about what Aso wants to discuss during his visit. Try asked Edi what he made of the meeting with Aso.
“Based on the quick once over I gave to these memos, I’d say he’s serious about Japan using Indonesia to ‘keep China busy’, Mr. President”, said Edi “But from where I sit, with all that you want to achieve, it’ll be a shame if you don’t manage to extend your rent in this place.”
19,544
18,744
Only 4 C-130s making the trip today with all four making second trip to take in evacuees.
12th May 2002 (Day 26 of the Election Campaign):
Chairwoman of the PNI Megawati Soekarnoputri and a group of PNI members paid their respects at President Soekarno’s tomb in Blitar, East Java today. During lunch at a local restaurant, Secretary of the PNI/Chairman of the PNI National Campaign Sutjipto reported that though short of funds, the PNI has been making inroads into the urban poor in Indonesia’s big cities and some of the secondary cities in the last few days; the PKPI’s effort not to lose rural voters to the PKPB leaving some vulnerable spots in urban areas.
It was a quiet day for Aso. He went to church at the Jakarta Cathedral, Aso being a Catholic, accompanied by Vice President JB Sumarlin and Second Lady Johanna Sudarmi Sumarlin. Other than lunch at the Vice Presidential Palace, there was not a lot he did.
At the Presidential Palace, the President met with Commander of ABRI Wiranto and Chief of BAKIN Ari Sudewo. The latter spoke first reporting that the Extreme Right has gone quiet for the election campaign. The likes of Jemaah Islamiyah does not care which party gets the most vote but know that if they try anything, it will make the people realize that the warnings about the Extreme Right are true and play into the government’s hand.
Wiranto reported that the overall security situation is satisfactory, however with the anticipation that the election will be close, there will continue to be tight security especially during the counting period.
Election security aside, the President told them about the CIA’s knowledge of Operation Chinthe and asked them “whether anyone else knows about what they’re doing”. Ari said he was not shocked that the CIA is aware adding that they had remained quiet to avoid alerting their counterparts in China and elsewhere. Inside Indonesia, Ari reported, the decision made to settle the evacuees in Army barracks and transmigration settlements means they are far away from the prying eyes of intelligence operatives operating out of the embassies and consulates. Ari also reported that the Vietnamese’s seriousness at maintaining the fiction that Shwe Mann and Co. are in Vietnam is keeping China and Myanmar from looking in Indonesia’s direction. The “leak” that the evacuees are probably in Australia are also keeping the intelligence operatives in those countries busy.
From a military standpoint, Wiranto said that the routes of the airlift and the sealift are designed so that the C-130s and the Kolinlamil and passenger ships are utilizing Indian airspace or in India’s EEZ as much as possible en route to India and back to Indonesia. Wiranto also expressed his belief that the operation should be well-disguised to the eyes of outsiders. The Andaman and Nicobar Islands through which the Indonesian airlift and sealift are operating is home to an Indian Armed Forces Tri-Service Command which had only been formed recently. Given the recent formation of this command, it would seem to anyone that would take notice that India is trying to consolidate on the formation of this command by increasing and expanding its presence.
“In terms of informing the general public, what kind of timing is being considered, Mr. President?” asked Ari Sudewo.
“Once the evacuees are all here and once the Election’s been held, I will look to make the announcement”, said Try “I have no idea how people will react to this.”
18,744
12,304
The Kolinlamil’s KRI Tanjung Kambani as well as PT. Pelni’s KM Bukit Siguntang, and KM Umsini escorted by 3 Diponegoro Class Frigates arrived in Aceh and Medan. The 6 C-130s are in action with 4 of them making second trips.
13th May 2002 (Day 27 of the Election Campaign):
The meeting began early at the Presidential Palace with Try and Aso sitting across from each other at the table accompanied by their delegations. On the Indonesian delegation, Try was accompanied by Ginandjar Kartasasmita, Minister of Economics and National Development Planning Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, Minister of Industry Siswono Yudohusodo, Minister of Mining and Energy Djiteng Marsudi, Minister of Maritime Affairs and Fisheries Indroko Sastrowiryono, Head of BKPM Mari Pangestu, Edi Sudrajat, and Head of BNPB Yusman Yutam. Aso was accompanied by Junichiro Koizumi, Minister of Economy, Trade, and Industry Sadakazu Tanigaki, Minister of Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries Yoriko Kawaguchi, Minister of Disaster Management Tadamuri Oshima, Director of the Japan Defense Agency Shinzo Abe, and Takeo Hiranuma.
By the time the meeting broke up and a signing ceremony was held by attended Try, Aso, and the delegations, it seemed like there was one heavy-duty agreement after another that was announced. The highlights are as follows:
*Technical assistance, aid, and investment for the construction of the Trans-Sumatra Toll Road
*Technical assistance, aid, and investment for the construction of Soekarno-Hatta International Airport’s Terminal 3
*Investment for the construction of the Donggo-Senoro LNG Plant in Central Sulawesi and a contract to import LNG from the plant.
*Transfer of knowledge (training, seminars, experts, visits to Japan) to assist development and capacity building of Indonesian manufacturing specifically in the automotive/automotive parts, electronics/electronic components, steel/steel products, and textiles.
*Transfer of knowledge to assist development and capacity building of Indonesian fishermen and shrimp farmers to educate them about fish farming management practices and exporting standards.
*Transfer of knowledge to assist development and capacity building of disaster management in Indonesia specifically earthquakes and tsunamis.
*A grant of three marine patrol vessels
By far the most important thing agreed upon at the meeting was Aso’s decision that Japan will cease to attend ASEAN+3 meetings saying that its relationship with Indonesia and other Southeast Asian nations are already well-served in other forums. This agreement was the one that got the most attention by observers, reporters, and analysts alike; the consensus being that Japan just gave its blessing to Indonesia’s leadership aspirations in the region.
During the joint press conference as Try and Aso took questions, Edi could not help a chuckle. For all Hendropriyono’s worry that the President was not on the campaign trail for the PKPI, having the Prime Minister of Japan essentially talk up the President and what he has achieved has certainly got to count for something.
After the press conference, the Japanese delegation said their farewells as they got ready to depart. Try and Aso had a private lunch where they had one last discussion. On this occasion Try tried to pick Aso’s brains about how the United States and Australia saw Indonesia. Aso described Indonesia as being in the United States’ “good books” though not to expect much from their end support-wise in the short term because they feel they’ve already given plenty such as moratorium on the payment of debt, help with Freeport, and other things which they acknowledge they’ve yet to fulfil.
“And Australia?” asked Try.
“All over the place”, replied Aso “They know that you are their best bet if China gets too strong because you provide a buffer between them and China, they think it’s good that your economy’s flourishing but you finally putting money into your defense…there are some concerns about that.”
It was on that note that their lunch ended and Aso made his farewells. By mid-afternoon he had flown home.
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No airlift and sealift are made due to maintenance. At ABRI Headquarters, Wiranto chaired a meeting about how get the remaining evacuees to Indonesia at a quicker pace.
---
Japan liked to refer itself as the Older Brother (Saudara Tua) in relation to Indonesia in its WWII propaganda.
Indonesia has a close economic with Japan in the shape of aid and investment. One outward symbol of this close relationship is that the President of Indonesia and the Prime Minister of Japan visit each other a lot. In ITTL, there’s an additional dynamic. By this time, ITTL Japan not only sees ITTL Indonesia as a place to import natural resources from, it is for the first time seeing Indonesia in terms of “Hang on, we could use them to counter China”.
Andaman and Nicobar Command https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andaman_and_Nicobar_Command
The projects mentioned here are heavy-duty and as usual happening earlier than OTL (ie. 3rd Terminal of Soekarno-Hatta that doesn’t wait until the existing 2 terminals are overcapacity). If anybody’s curious why the LNG project mentioned is not the Tangguh LNG field, the Tangguh LNG Field is languishing off-screen, it is a Bob Hasan project so the government is not in a rush to encourage it, ITTL Bob Hasan is probably diverting the money to the PKPB. https://www.google.co.id/books/edit...q=lng+tangguh+bob&pg=PA30&printsec=frontcover
I’m not good with numbers but I did a rudimentary calculation using Indonesia’s economic growth rates mentioned ITTL and came up with somewhere between $290 and $300 billions which according to this chart (https://www.nationmaster.com/country-info/stats/Economy/GDP#2001), places it above Argentina but behind Russia. Argentina’s is probably closer to Indonesia’s ITTL because it’s going experience pain but not to the point of riots and changing presidents every few days/week which happened in OTL (will explore this when we go around the world though I don’t know when). If you ignore the EU being counted as an economy on that website, that places Indonesia as the 17th largest economy in the world at the end of ITTL 2001.
I used this calculator to do my calculations of economic growth https://www.omnicalculator.com/finance/gdp-growth. So for the 1998 GDP, I put the Indonesian GDP for 1997 in the “GDP in the previous period” and then play around with the numbers in the “GDP in the current period” column until the GDP growth column gets 3.9% which is the ITTL Indonesia economic growth in 1998.
That’s probably not the most accurate way of going about things but just want to see albeit in a rough way, how is Indonesia economically in the ITTL world.
11th May 2002 (Day 25 of the Election Campaign):
With a bright smile on his face, Chairman of the DPR Harmoko accompanied by Minister of Public Works Rachmat Witoelar inaugurated the Surabaya-Mojokerto Toll Road on behalf of the President. Interviewed afterwards, Harmoko expressed his pride that he had been chosen to represent the President. When asked if this was a reward for his strong performance campaigning in rural areas, Harmoko said that whether his performance has been strong enough will be seen in the election results. Harmoko also ridiculed Chairwoman of the PKPB Tutut Soeharto’s idea that the President’s activities should not be broadcasted even during an election campaign.
At a campaign event in Bali with Minister of Tourism Soeyono, Chairman of the PKPI National Campaign Hendropriyono watched on with a cheerful mood. Hendropriyono said that he’s just happy that the main thing the other side has got going for it is their funds but now they cannot use it because people are sick of being bombarded by the PKPB advertising. When asked if the PKPI can win the election, Hendropriyono said that it will be a struggle but they have a better chance.
Back in Jakarta, President Try Sutrisno was giving an official welcome to Prime Minister of Japan Taro Aso who had gone to visit the United States and Australia before he arrived in Indonesia. Once the ceremonies and the statements were out of the way, Try and Aso retreated into the Presidential Palace for their intial talks. Try was accompanied by Minister of Foreign Affairs Ginandjar Kartasasmita and State Secretary Edi Sudrajat while Aso was accompanied by Minister of Foreign Affairs Junichiro Koizumi and Chief Cabinet Secretary Takeo Hiranuma.
The initial talks covered strategic issues and proved to be a roller coaster. Within the first few minutes, Try and Aso quickly found agreement in their stance on China with Aso expressing his concern that China had increased its military spending, that this increased spending was not transparent and that this made China a threat. After Koichi Kato’s reluctance to “anger” China, Try felt nothing but relief.
The two picked each other’s brains on China. Try said that his objective is for ASEAN to move as one on strategic matters so that it can serve its own interests rather than that of the United States or Russia’s. Unfortunately, this objective seems to have clashed with China’s goal of wanting to expand its influence in Southeast Asia citing its attempted interference in the Vietnamese Communist Party National Congress and its immediate support for Gen. Khin Nyunt’s regime in Myanmar.
“We realize it is presumptuous for us to take on China one-on-one but this is why it’s become more important that ASEAN move as one if not on the other big questions, then at least on China”, explained Try “At the moment, though, we’re in a situation in the region where there are Southeast Asian nations that agree with us, that don’t agree with us and that are indifferent.”
Aso then responded with a comment that floored Try because it got him to start thinking about possibilities.
“I don’t think its presumptuous, Mr. President”, replied Aso “Indonesia’s economy is only slightly behind Russia’s. If Russia can get the United States to worry about turning its back, then it is well within Indonesia’s capabilities to cause trouble for China. My visit here is to ensure that Indonesia has even more capability to cause trouble for China.”
Aso then explained things from Japan’s point of view which boiled down to the fact that it was the second largest economy but it being “only a matter of time” before China overtakes it; though this did not meant he wanted Japan to roll over. The main problem he faced at the moment was that the current state of affairs would not last long. The circumstances of his predecessor’s resignation as prime minister was such that upon taking office, Aso immediately faced demands by the public to hold an election. The public outrage was such that Aso was only able to delay holding the election until after the Football World Cup at which point, Aso said, it is likely the LDP will lose.
Trying to be as polite as possible, Edi asked what would happen if the LDP lost. Hiranuma said that the DPJ will come to power and its leader, Yukio Hatoyama will be prime minister. Edi asked what would Hatoyama’s foreign policy look like. Koizumi smiled ruefully as he said that Hatoyama and the DPJ were pro-China in their foreign policy.
Aso said that at the present time, with limited time and a pro-China government on the horizon, what he wants to do is ensure that “someone will keep China busy” for however long his party will be out of power.
Ginandjar wondered whether India or South Korea would not have been better choices. Koizumi shook his head saying that India and South Korea are concerned about China because China being “off their backs” means they can focus on their respective primary security threats, in this case Pakistan and North Korea.
“Why us, Mr. Prime Minister? Why not someone else?” asked Try.
“I’ve always known that you were serious about China ever since you came to visit Japan last year and my predecessor didn’t know what to do you with you, Mr. President” replied Aso “But I knew I’m making the right call when a week ago in Washington. I was in the Oval Office with McCain and he showed me what the CIA found out about you…the coup in Myanmar, the missing general and his men, you’re evacuating them into Indonesia aren’t you?”
---
That night, Aso attended a dinner held by the Jakarta Japan Club. In his keynote address, Aso urged overseas Japanese living in Indonesia to take advantage of the favorable economic climate in Indonesia and invest in it. Aso said that Indonesia is a nation of great strategic value for Japan and that by investing in Indonesia, overseas Japanese will also strengthen Japan.
Try watched the broadcast of Aso’s speech on the TVRI in his office as Edi walked in with more memos about what Aso wants to discuss during his visit. Try asked Edi what he made of the meeting with Aso.
“Based on the quick once over I gave to these memos, I’d say he’s serious about Japan using Indonesia to ‘keep China busy’, Mr. President”, said Edi “But from where I sit, with all that you want to achieve, it’ll be a shame if you don’t manage to extend your rent in this place.”
18,744
Only 4 C-130s making the trip today with all four making second trip to take in evacuees.
12th May 2002 (Day 26 of the Election Campaign):
Chairwoman of the PNI Megawati Soekarnoputri and a group of PNI members paid their respects at President Soekarno’s tomb in Blitar, East Java today. During lunch at a local restaurant, Secretary of the PNI/Chairman of the PNI National Campaign Sutjipto reported that though short of funds, the PNI has been making inroads into the urban poor in Indonesia’s big cities and some of the secondary cities in the last few days; the PKPI’s effort not to lose rural voters to the PKPB leaving some vulnerable spots in urban areas.
It was a quiet day for Aso. He went to church at the Jakarta Cathedral, Aso being a Catholic, accompanied by Vice President JB Sumarlin and Second Lady Johanna Sudarmi Sumarlin. Other than lunch at the Vice Presidential Palace, there was not a lot he did.
At the Presidential Palace, the President met with Commander of ABRI Wiranto and Chief of BAKIN Ari Sudewo. The latter spoke first reporting that the Extreme Right has gone quiet for the election campaign. The likes of Jemaah Islamiyah does not care which party gets the most vote but know that if they try anything, it will make the people realize that the warnings about the Extreme Right are true and play into the government’s hand.
Wiranto reported that the overall security situation is satisfactory, however with the anticipation that the election will be close, there will continue to be tight security especially during the counting period.
Election security aside, the President told them about the CIA’s knowledge of Operation Chinthe and asked them “whether anyone else knows about what they’re doing”. Ari said he was not shocked that the CIA is aware adding that they had remained quiet to avoid alerting their counterparts in China and elsewhere. Inside Indonesia, Ari reported, the decision made to settle the evacuees in Army barracks and transmigration settlements means they are far away from the prying eyes of intelligence operatives operating out of the embassies and consulates. Ari also reported that the Vietnamese’s seriousness at maintaining the fiction that Shwe Mann and Co. are in Vietnam is keeping China and Myanmar from looking in Indonesia’s direction. The “leak” that the evacuees are probably in Australia are also keeping the intelligence operatives in those countries busy.
From a military standpoint, Wiranto said that the routes of the airlift and the sealift are designed so that the C-130s and the Kolinlamil and passenger ships are utilizing Indian airspace or in India’s EEZ as much as possible en route to India and back to Indonesia. Wiranto also expressed his belief that the operation should be well-disguised to the eyes of outsiders. The Andaman and Nicobar Islands through which the Indonesian airlift and sealift are operating is home to an Indian Armed Forces Tri-Service Command which had only been formed recently. Given the recent formation of this command, it would seem to anyone that would take notice that India is trying to consolidate on the formation of this command by increasing and expanding its presence.
“In terms of informing the general public, what kind of timing is being considered, Mr. President?” asked Ari Sudewo.
“Once the evacuees are all here and once the Election’s been held, I will look to make the announcement”, said Try “I have no idea how people will react to this.”
12,304
The Kolinlamil’s KRI Tanjung Kambani as well as PT. Pelni’s KM Bukit Siguntang, and KM Umsini escorted by 3 Diponegoro Class Frigates arrived in Aceh and Medan. The 6 C-130s are in action with 4 of them making second trips.
13th May 2002 (Day 27 of the Election Campaign):
The meeting began early at the Presidential Palace with Try and Aso sitting across from each other at the table accompanied by their delegations. On the Indonesian delegation, Try was accompanied by Ginandjar Kartasasmita, Minister of Economics and National Development Planning Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, Minister of Industry Siswono Yudohusodo, Minister of Mining and Energy Djiteng Marsudi, Minister of Maritime Affairs and Fisheries Indroko Sastrowiryono, Head of BKPM Mari Pangestu, Edi Sudrajat, and Head of BNPB Yusman Yutam. Aso was accompanied by Junichiro Koizumi, Minister of Economy, Trade, and Industry Sadakazu Tanigaki, Minister of Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries Yoriko Kawaguchi, Minister of Disaster Management Tadamuri Oshima, Director of the Japan Defense Agency Shinzo Abe, and Takeo Hiranuma.
By the time the meeting broke up and a signing ceremony was held by attended Try, Aso, and the delegations, it seemed like there was one heavy-duty agreement after another that was announced. The highlights are as follows:
*Technical assistance, aid, and investment for the construction of the Trans-Sumatra Toll Road
*Technical assistance, aid, and investment for the construction of Soekarno-Hatta International Airport’s Terminal 3
*Investment for the construction of the Donggo-Senoro LNG Plant in Central Sulawesi and a contract to import LNG from the plant.
*Transfer of knowledge (training, seminars, experts, visits to Japan) to assist development and capacity building of Indonesian manufacturing specifically in the automotive/automotive parts, electronics/electronic components, steel/steel products, and textiles.
*Transfer of knowledge to assist development and capacity building of Indonesian fishermen and shrimp farmers to educate them about fish farming management practices and exporting standards.
*Transfer of knowledge to assist development and capacity building of disaster management in Indonesia specifically earthquakes and tsunamis.
*A grant of three marine patrol vessels
By far the most important thing agreed upon at the meeting was Aso’s decision that Japan will cease to attend ASEAN+3 meetings saying that its relationship with Indonesia and other Southeast Asian nations are already well-served in other forums. This agreement was the one that got the most attention by observers, reporters, and analysts alike; the consensus being that Japan just gave its blessing to Indonesia’s leadership aspirations in the region.
During the joint press conference as Try and Aso took questions, Edi could not help a chuckle. For all Hendropriyono’s worry that the President was not on the campaign trail for the PKPI, having the Prime Minister of Japan essentially talk up the President and what he has achieved has certainly got to count for something.
After the press conference, the Japanese delegation said their farewells as they got ready to depart. Try and Aso had a private lunch where they had one last discussion. On this occasion Try tried to pick Aso’s brains about how the United States and Australia saw Indonesia. Aso described Indonesia as being in the United States’ “good books” though not to expect much from their end support-wise in the short term because they feel they’ve already given plenty such as moratorium on the payment of debt, help with Freeport, and other things which they acknowledge they’ve yet to fulfil.
“And Australia?” asked Try.
“All over the place”, replied Aso “They know that you are their best bet if China gets too strong because you provide a buffer between them and China, they think it’s good that your economy’s flourishing but you finally putting money into your defense…there are some concerns about that.”
It was on that note that their lunch ended and Aso made his farewells. By mid-afternoon he had flown home.
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No airlift and sealift are made due to maintenance. At ABRI Headquarters, Wiranto chaired a meeting about how get the remaining evacuees to Indonesia at a quicker pace.
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Japan liked to refer itself as the Older Brother (Saudara Tua) in relation to Indonesia in its WWII propaganda.
Indonesia has a close economic with Japan in the shape of aid and investment. One outward symbol of this close relationship is that the President of Indonesia and the Prime Minister of Japan visit each other a lot. In ITTL, there’s an additional dynamic. By this time, ITTL Japan not only sees ITTL Indonesia as a place to import natural resources from, it is for the first time seeing Indonesia in terms of “Hang on, we could use them to counter China”.
Andaman and Nicobar Command https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andaman_and_Nicobar_Command
The projects mentioned here are heavy-duty and as usual happening earlier than OTL (ie. 3rd Terminal of Soekarno-Hatta that doesn’t wait until the existing 2 terminals are overcapacity). If anybody’s curious why the LNG project mentioned is not the Tangguh LNG field, the Tangguh LNG Field is languishing off-screen, it is a Bob Hasan project so the government is not in a rush to encourage it, ITTL Bob Hasan is probably diverting the money to the PKPB. https://www.google.co.id/books/edit...q=lng+tangguh+bob&pg=PA30&printsec=frontcover
I’m not good with numbers but I did a rudimentary calculation using Indonesia’s economic growth rates mentioned ITTL and came up with somewhere between $290 and $300 billions which according to this chart (https://www.nationmaster.com/country-info/stats/Economy/GDP#2001), places it above Argentina but behind Russia. Argentina’s is probably closer to Indonesia’s ITTL because it’s going experience pain but not to the point of riots and changing presidents every few days/week which happened in OTL (will explore this when we go around the world though I don’t know when). If you ignore the EU being counted as an economy on that website, that places Indonesia as the 17th largest economy in the world at the end of ITTL 2001.
I used this calculator to do my calculations of economic growth https://www.omnicalculator.com/finance/gdp-growth. So for the 1998 GDP, I put the Indonesian GDP for 1997 in the “GDP in the previous period” and then play around with the numbers in the “GDP in the current period” column until the GDP growth column gets 3.9% which is the ITTL Indonesia economic growth in 1998.
That’s probably not the most accurate way of going about things but just want to see albeit in a rough way, how is Indonesia economically in the ITTL world.
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Following the things that happened in IRL. I’ll bet when Shinzo Abe became PM and LDP come into power the relationship between Indonesia and Japan would grew more closer since they all have the same interest to counter China.
With a closer relationship between the three countries it would be possible for India and South Korea and some others to back Indonesia up wherever possible. Indonesia doesn't exactly have the military might to trouble China and that has to be left to the Frontline states of Phillipines and Vietnam for now. South China Sea is the key to keeping them out.
As I said earlier, the military escort wasn't probably the best idea. Myanmar has a pitiful Navy and Air Force and if the ships are travelling through the Bay of Bengal instead of the Andaman Sea then they can hardly do anything and they always have the Andaman and Nicobar Command in between. Aerial evacuation could have been done through Delhi using civilian aircraft. Sudden arrival of Indonesian military aircraft and ships to India draws immense amount of attention.
If the Jakarta Bloc wants to flex it's muscle then Thailand's aircraft carrier becomes important to that strategy. OTL Thailand couldn't figure out a proper use for their aircraft carrier. And they still have a chance to order new aircraft for it before production ends in 2003
Would an organization similar to the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue form and include South Korea and the Jakarta Bloc.
Edit- Another question who is in charge of Pakistan now and how hostile is that regime to India? @GSD310 If you could create a sheet where every person used is named would be of great help. I forget the names all the time and it is quite difficult to search for them?
If China is stopped in Southeast Asia IMO they are likely to push into Central Asia and into Russia's Near Abroad. A strategy where India, Iran and Russia works together can prevent that.
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Pretty plausible.
Maybe the Jakarta Bloc to some extent but South Korea is too close and integrated with its economy to openly side with Quad. Just look at OTL: they sometimes make some statements vaguely attacking China but never go further in order not to antagonize them. The same thing applies to a lesser extent to the Jakarta Bloc: I can only see Indonesia and Thailand openly joining the Esagonal Security Dialogue ITTL (Esagon for short?)
Not very likely since even in OTL with more freedom of action they never did this. In OTL when the 2001 Sino-Russian Treaty of Friendship was signed the two countries came to an informal agreement:
Russia openly supports the CCP "One-China policy" while the PRC accepts Russia dominance in Central Asia. This was shown in OTL when in 2005 China did not take a side in the Tulip Revolution, in 2016 when it shelved plans to build military bases in Tajikistan and Uzbekistan after the Russians complained and just some days ago when it pointed out its support to Russian actions and only offered economic support.
The WORST thing China can do ITTL when they encounter greater resistance in Southeast Asia is antagonizing the Russians by trying to enter into their backyard. The most likely option for China is to focus on strengthening their relations with Russia by building pipelines, buying more military equipment (especially the 50+ Su-33, the 36 Tu-22M3s that they planned in OTL, more IL-78 tanker planes), and rump up naval expansion (especially their carrier and nuclear submarine programs) while also strengthening their military relations with Pakistan and Myanmar (maybe build naval bases there?).
This could easily lead to India and Pakistan both expanding their military:
- India would more than likely buy more Su-30MKIs and maybe even some Tu-22M3s themselves, more T-90s, and more funding to the Su-57/PAK-FA program.
- Pakistan would surely respond in kind by buying SAMs, helicopters, tanks and PAC JF-17 Thunder jets from China and maybe Russia.
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Thailand could also quite easily acquire the 4 upgraded italian Sauro-class submarines that in OTL were offered to Taiwan
If thats the case, maybe we can see less ARAMCO and more JAPEX or INPEX investments, and those are the first i think among many others.
I agree. It is not possible without butterflies affecting them but there is a chance ITTL. China is still nowhere near the massive power it is in the process of becoming yet. Australia is also similarly integrated with China. Yeah I understand that Australia left in fear of China in 20017 so South Korea is more likely to stay away and that being in a military related grouping with Japan is also another issue.
What do you think of Philippines? They already sport a US military base and are arguably a frontline state against China and with Disputes in the South China Sea. Well the nomenclature would be Hexagonal for six or Heptagonal for seven.
Nations don't always do what is best although I agree in spirit.
Il-78 is quite understandable but for the Su-33 and so many Tu-22M3s the production lines would have to be restarted and it would cost quite a lot. Also at this point Chinese Technology is not so advanced and they have antagonized Russia by reverse engineering the Su-27 so technology transfer would only come after large minimum orders. The Su-35 deal OTL involving only 36 aircraft was quite controversial as they wanted to sell a minimum of 72 and got intellectual rights reserved.
Although military relations can be strengthened but I don't think that either country will allow explicit military bases. That era of history is long gone. Observation and listening posts on the other hand are quite plausible.
If Russia sells military hardware to Pakistan then they would lose India in the long run. Since the 60s India has raised a huge hue and cry every time there has been even rumors of the Russians selling military hardware to Pakistan and it has been their long standing policy to retain their largest and stable market. India is already buying as many T-90s as possible and if ITTL they have a better economy then more are possible but likely more funds are diverted to the indigenous Arjun tank.
The Indian Air Force is not exactly happy with the Su-30 MKI although they are better than the Su-30 MKK as they are maintenance intensive and have about 50% availability(not only the Indian Variant but the entire flanker family has this problem). That is the main reason for the MMRCA program and I think with a more aggressive China and Pakistan the RFP would be sent out in 2005 with a deal likely completed by 2009 with the western countries more agreeable due to the financial crisis.
The OTL Pakistan under Musharraf cut down military spending for a while and focused on the economy between 2002-2008 but with the new guy(I don't recall his name. Could you Please name him?) their economic malaise is likely to be much more.
Yeah submarines would be an integral part of the broader strategy to counter Chine influence.
I won't answer the comments about the evacuation of Shwe Mann and Co. at the moment to avoid spoiling what happens.
But just some comments regarding foreign policy:
The "keep China busy" comment by Aso shouldn't be taken as "Indonesia going to go to war with China and win". It's more like "We're going to give you some good tools to get stronger economically". A big deal is made ITTL about Indonesia trying to get other SE Asian nations to see things its way about China because it will certainly lose if it tried to go one-on-one with China whether politically or otherwise.
Now as far as the ITTL version of the Quad or something like it, you guys have got it correct there. Outside of Southeast Asia, India and South Korea has an interest in seeing Indonesia do well in standing up to China. India's realized it. South Korea not at that point yet.
I don't think China will give up on expansion in SE Asia's direction so long as it has Cambodia, Myanmar, and Malaysia on its side. One thing that ITTL China is probably uncomfortable with is the fact that it's being drawn into flexing its muscles in SE Asia before they're ready. On the one hand they could use the peaceful development etc. to silently build their military capability but if they let Indonesia into an leadership position in SE Asia and coordinate how they should approach China...well they'll be in a lot of trouble by the time they want to assert themselves for real.
As a sidenote, I welcome the interest in Primakov being President of Russia in the thread. I'm far from being a Russia expert, but I read his profile and his views and I always wonder why no one ever has ever done a TL about him being President of Russia.
@Marco Rivignani regarding Russia and China's relationship. How would China react if India bought weapons from Russia? Considering India is more likely to be hostile to China.
@Rajveer Naha
Right now Gen. Aziz Khan is the Chief Executive of Pakistan. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aziz_Khan_(general)
Basically Pakistan followed its OTL journey but with little differences which grew bigger as time wore on. Musharraf still takes over in a coup in 1999, but his fellow officers and the ISI are wary of him being pro-Western or taking a more decisively anti-Islamist stance or becoming "Another Try". Musharraf is both aware of this and looks at Try as a model for governing. These factors is why ITTL, Pakistan doesn't side with the United States after 9/11 because Musharraf knows he'd be on his way out if he does. When he does try to denounce Lashkar-E-Taiba's attack on the Indian Parliament in December 2001, this triggers a palace coup. Musharraf is still President of Pakistan but his Chief Executive position is held by Aziz Khan.
On a sidenote, what's India's stance on the Sri Lankan Civil War?
But just some comments regarding foreign policy:
The "keep China busy" comment by Aso shouldn't be taken as "Indonesia going to go to war with China and win". It's more like "We're going to give you some good tools to get stronger economically". A big deal is made ITTL about Indonesia trying to get other SE Asian nations to see things its way about China because it will certainly lose if it tried to go one-on-one with China whether politically or otherwise.
Now as far as the ITTL version of the Quad or something like it, you guys have got it correct there. Outside of Southeast Asia, India and South Korea has an interest in seeing Indonesia do well in standing up to China. India's realized it. South Korea not at that point yet.
I don't think China will give up on expansion in SE Asia's direction so long as it has Cambodia, Myanmar, and Malaysia on its side. One thing that ITTL China is probably uncomfortable with is the fact that it's being drawn into flexing its muscles in SE Asia before they're ready. On the one hand they could use the peaceful development etc. to silently build their military capability but if they let Indonesia into an leadership position in SE Asia and coordinate how they should approach China...well they'll be in a lot of trouble by the time they want to assert themselves for real.
I'll have to study this when I get around to doing a "going round the world" update.
As a sidenote, I welcome the interest in Primakov being President of Russia in the thread. I'm far from being a Russia expert, but I read his profile and his views and I always wonder why no one ever has ever done a TL about him being President of Russia.
@Marco Rivignani regarding Russia and China's relationship. How would China react if India bought weapons from Russia? Considering India is more likely to be hostile to China.
@Rajveer Naha
Right now Gen. Aziz Khan is the Chief Executive of Pakistan. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aziz_Khan_(general)
Basically Pakistan followed its OTL journey but with little differences which grew bigger as time wore on. Musharraf still takes over in a coup in 1999, but his fellow officers and the ISI are wary of him being pro-Western or taking a more decisively anti-Islamist stance or becoming "Another Try". Musharraf is both aware of this and looks at Try as a model for governing. These factors is why ITTL, Pakistan doesn't side with the United States after 9/11 because Musharraf knows he'd be on his way out if he does. When he does try to denounce Lashkar-E-Taiba's attack on the Indian Parliament in December 2001, this triggers a palace coup. Musharraf is still President of Pakistan but his Chief Executive position is held by Aziz Khan.
On a sidenote, what's India's stance on the Sri Lankan Civil War?
Of course but such discussion drift into a military muscle measuring contest.
Maybe because he didn't have any long lasting contribution. Maybe he still creates the useless organization that is BRICS . And he is too old IMO. 73 already and the job of president is tough. I hope that Russian democracy survives ITTL maybe Putin contests him again in the future presidential election or probably he would become the natural successor of Primakov.
Thanks!
Yeah I remember that. The thing is before this TL I had a very superficial knowledge of the political landscape of Indonesia so I don't recall most of the names and only recall them as you always mention their position, although I should have remembered Aziz Khan.
In simplistic term "Who cares?". After the assassination of Rajiv Gandhi India turned hostile to the LTTE (In the IPKF time India fought them but was lacking hostility and a clear aim which was one of the main reasons for failure) but did not take steps to antagonize them to avoid angering the Tamils of India who still passively supported the LTTE. At this point of time we are at a position where the LTTE is at its peak and a negotiated peace with the Tamils getting a better deal is quite possible. If that happens then the Sri Lankan Tamils never face the military brutality and pogroms that it faced OTL.
EDIT- What is your opinion on joint arms development between India Indonesia and the other South East Asian Countries?
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