Indonesia ATL: The Presidency of Try Sutrisno (1997-)

For we Chinese New Order's main effect felt was the heavy handed efforts to assimilate us. With that gone, we'd just draw comparisons to Malaysian 'democracy' where Chinese are STILL official second class citizens while we no longer are officially. To sum up, if this election doesn't end up in an auto-coup, this will be the New 'New Order'.
You’re saying that there’s been some changes but the changes aren’t institutionalized yet so that things are automatically better and that there’s still a chance that things could go back to bad if Tutut and the PKPB get their hands on power? That’s a fair assessment.


Yup, Try's regime is definitely a continuation of the New Order. And that's not necessarily a bad thing(i mean by naming itself an era called THE "Chad" NEW ORDER are way better than the virgin Reformation), as long it's focused on what it stand for in the early days like stability, economic growth, and all that good stuff.

But forget about all that, I'm just here thinking what's gonna happen when my boy Edi Sudrajat die in Try's second term 😖😭
This is also a fair assessment. Yes, one way of looking at Try’s regime is that it represents the New Order in its earlier days; at the least the days before Soeharto began to use Islam to balance ABRI in the 1990s.

I won’t say much about Edi other than it’s always fun writing his interactions with Try. I think OTL, they have a close friendship and relationship.

If Try is just a continuation of the New Order, what are Tutut and others proposing?

Tutut and her followers are basically New Order purists. They don’t see anything wrong with the way Soeharto ran things and no reason to change. They think that Try is jeopardizing what Soeharto has achieved in his presidenc

Try and his followers see themselves as the legitimate successors of the New Order. They will tinker around with some things (Ie. East Timor becoming a Special Region, being tougher on corruption) but they’re not in favor of change for change’s sake. They see themselves as improving rather than dismantling what Soeharto left behind.

At its core, though, Try vs Tutut is a war of succession. Soeharto’s constitutional successor vs. Soeharto’s biological successor (Tutut being Soeharto’s eldest).
 
Hmm, multiple successors of a political doctrine - the New Order. Interesting. Almost every nation has this way of trying to inherit the essence and the head of political movements.

Is this just a Indonesia (Try) vs Soehartoland (Tutut) game?
 
181: Aftermath
10th June 2002:
Chairwoman of the PKPB Tutut Soeharto held a press conference today. Tutut began with a statement saying that the PKPB’s victory at the 2002 Election was a meaningful one. “Two years to the day after the President initiated the break-up of Golkar by attempting to unseat me and on what would have been the 81st birthday of my father, the PKPB is declared victorious”, Tutut said in her statement.

To Tutut’s annoyance, however, the questions were mostly about President Try Sutrisno’s announcement the previous night. Tutut expressed her disagreement at the step that was taken to bring in over 30,000 Myanmarians.

“The question is not about whether or not Indonesia is pro-China or anti-China, the question is whether or not the step Indonesia is taken is good for ASEAN or bad for it and in my opinion, the step that the President has taken is jeopardizing ASEAN”, said Tutut “How can we expect to lead the region when one of the nations in it just cut off diplomatic relations with us?”

Elsewhere, at the ABRI Headquarters, Commander of ABRI Wiranto was seen giving an official welcome to Shwe Mann who today pays his first official visit to ABRI Headquarters.

11th June 2002:
At the Presidential Palace today, the President accompanied by Minister of Home Affairs Harsudiono Hartas, Minister of Finance Mar’ie Muhammad, Minister of Mining and Energy Djiteng Marsudi, and State Secretary Edi Sudrajat today met with PT. Freeport Indonesia’s Board of Directors headed by CEO Adrianto Machrabie. In a short statement, Machrabie stated to the President that Freeport will begin to divest its shares to the Indonesian government as of 1st April 2003.

While the President managed a smile, the ministers were unable to hide their disappointment that it was only now that this agreement was officially announced. Harsudiono Hartas glared angrily when a member of the press asked him if the PKPI could have won the election had this agreement been announced before the election.

12th June 2002:
At a doorstop interview, Minister of Economics and National Development Planning Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, said that the economic prospects for Indonesia remained bright after the elections. When asked about the Rupiah’s value which had dropped to $1= Rp. 4,144 after the election, Dorodjatun acknowledged it and said that the government will take steps to restore confidence in the economy.

ABRI Headquarters issued a statement saying that the President has approved of a command shuffle the highlights of which are as follows:

*Maj. Gen. Amirul Isnaeni, currently Commander of the Irian Jaya Regional Military Command, is promoted to the rank of lieutenant general and appointed Chief of the ABRI Intelligence Agency. He replaces Ian Santoso Perdanakusuma who had held the position for 2 years.

*Maj. Gen. (Marines) Yussuf Solichien, currently the Navy's Assistant of Planning, is appointed Commander of the Marine Corps.

*Maj. Gen. Syarifuddin Tippe, currently Assistant of Planning at the Army Headquarters, is appointed Assistant of Operations at ABRI Headquarters.

*Maj. Gen. Saurip Kadi, currently Assistant of Functional Affairs at ABRI Headquarters, will be the Military Secretary

13th June 2002:
The President met with Minister of Foreign Affairs Ginandjar Kartasasmita today. Ginandjar brought with him a message from Prime Minister of India Atal Bihari Vajpayee. Vajpayee first conveyed that India and Pakistan, with the mediation of the United States, the United Kingdom, Russia, and China, have agreed to end their stand-off and that it was now a matter of working out the details. The President knew however that this was not the message Vajpayee wanted Ginandjar to bring.

Ginandjar said that Vajpayee appreciated that the President had not gone into much detail about how the 30,000 Myanmarians reached Indonesian shores but said that once the situation settles down and other matters can be addressed, he did not know how long the matter could be kept under wraps. Vajpayee said that it would be good that whichever way the matter came to light in India, that he could be able to point to the “more tangible benefits” of India’s relationship with Indonesia.

“We probably could have told Shwe Mann to evacuate through Thailand rather than India”, said Ginandjar rather testily.

“You think Thaksin wouldn’t have asked for a reward for facilitating those 30,000?” asked the President, catching the tone in Ginandjar’s voice “Start asking around the other departments and agencies, what does India need that we can give to them.”

“Very well, Mr. President”, said Ginandjar.

“The region’s had a few days to process what we have done”, said the President “What would you say the sentiment is around Southeast Asia?”

“Whether they are for it, against it, or neutral they are now waiting to see what our next move will be, Mr. President”, replied Ginandjar “And whether they are for it, against it, or neutral, they all agree that if we’re not careful with our next moves, we run the risk of making ASEAN unworkable. We can’t keep having an organization based on consensus constantly being split three ways on various issues.”

“Well, it’s also supposed to be an organization free from the interference of outside powers, too”, said the President “But I agree, we need to move more carefully, perhaps lay a little bit low, all the while still advancing our interests.”

There was a pause and for a second Ginandjar thought that the meeting was over.

“We need to get Singapore and Brunei off the fence”, said the President.

“Goh Chok Tong is playing it safe and his view rules the day in Singapore, especially now that Minister for Foreign Affairs Lee Hsien Loong has had to step down after been diagnosed with cancer”, explained Ginandjar “Sultan Bolkiah…well…he’s not a big fan of your stance on extremism.”

“We also get a lot of investment from Singapore and we import beef from Brunei”, added the President “It won’t be good for us if we start pushing them.”

“It would be tempting to take a short cut and recognize Shwe Mann as the Head of a Government-In-Exile, Mr. President”, prompted Ginandjar.

“I’m sure that would go down real well in the region”, said the President sarcastically.

14th June 2002:
In a press conference at the Department of Foreign Affairs, Ginandjar announced that Indonesia will sever its diplomatic relations with Myanmar and has ordered the withdrawal of all personnel stationed in Myanmar. When asked whether Indonesia would transfer this diplomatic recognition to Shwe Mann, Ginandjar said that Shwe Mann and those who joined him in Indonesia does not constitute a Myanmarian government-in-exile and it was a condition of Shwe Mann’s acceptance in Indonesia that he does not establish a government-in-exile.

The President, accompanied by Minister of Maritime Affairs and Fisheries Tanto Kuswanto and Governor of Jakarta Sutiyoso, inaugurated the Modern Fish Market at Muara Baru, North Jakarta. In his speech, the President said that he hopes that this market will encourage economic activity, create an image of fish markets that is modern and clean, and set new standards for what fish markets should be like not just in Jakarta but all around Indonesia. The President said that the government is in the process of constructing further fish markets much like this one being inaugurated. After making his speech, the President then toured around the fish market.

From there, he went to Kemayoran where flanked by Junior Minister of Housing Bobby Suhardiman and Sutiyoso, he inaugurated Towers A1, A2, and A3 of the Bandar Kemayoran Apartment Bloc in Kemayoran, Central Jakarta. The President in his speech said that the construction of apartment blocs is an integral part of the government’s housing policy and takes the opportunity to announce that the government wants to augment its goal of building 1 million simple and very simple houses with a goal of building 1000 apartment towers.

15th June 2002:
Chairman of the KPU HBL Mantiri today hosted the Ratification of Election Results Ceremony. With Harsudiono Hartas acting as the witness, Tutut Soeharto, Chairman of the PKPI Basofi Sudirman, Chairman of the PPP Matori Abdul Djalil, and Chairwoman of the PNI Megawati Soekarnoputri signed a joint statement accepting the results of the election at the national, provincial, and regency/municipal levels as legitimate.

Harsudiono could not wait for the ceremony to be over. After making some comments to the press that the President had fulfilled the mandate entrusted to him by the MPR, Harsudiono disappeared into his car. Not long after that Harsudiono arrived at the Presidential Palace where he was joined by Basofi; the latter being accompanied by Chairman of the PKPI National Campaign Hendropriyono. They were led to a room where the President and Edi Sudrajat waited.

“I’ve called this meeting because with the results now ratified, the 2002 Elections is now over and now we must prepare for the 2003 MPR General Session”, said the President solemnly.

Hendropriyono went over the basics that the MPR consists of 1000 delegates and that with election results now official, the number of delegates which each political party will have in the MPR can now be counted. The minimum target to get the President re-elected will be 501.

Bearing in mind the number of delegates a political party would have is the seats they would have in the new DPR term plus 50% (rounded up if the number of DPR seats is odd), the following numbers may be recorded:

*The PKPB: 153 seats plus 77 seats= 230 MPR Delegates
*The PKPI: 143 seats plus 73 seats= 216 MPR Delegates
*The PPP: 73 seats plus 37 seats= 110 MPR Delegates
*The PNI: 56 seats plus 28 seats= 84 MPR Delegates

ABRI’s seats in the DPR is 75 seats so it will get an extra 38 seats in the MPR and will total 113 delegates.

“This would be where it pays to have our coalition with the PPP, wouldn’t it?” asked Edi “The PKPI’s 230 plus the PPP’s 110 and ABRI’s 113, that gets us to 453…I think we can scrounge around for at least 48 more votes.”

“I wish it worked like that but it doesn’t”, said Basofi “While we can assume that the PKPI’s 230 votes are secure, we can’t say the same of the PPP. The word I’m getting in the aftermath of the election is that they want to extract more from us given that we will be relying more on them in both the DPR and the MPR.”

“What do they want to extract?” asked Edi.

“Well, the PKPI-PPP Coalition Agreement does not specify what constitutional high office that we are willing to give to them”, explained Basofi “They are going to want you, Mr. President, to specify what constitutional high office you want to give to them.”

“That’s the chairmanship of the DPR/MPR, the chairmanship of the BPK, the chairmanship of the DPA, the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court’s position, and the vice presidency”, elaborated Hendropriyono.

“What if I want to give them the chairmanship of the DPA?” asked the President.

“They’re not going to accept that, Mr. President”, replied Harsudiono “No offense to Gen. Rudini at the DPA or Kunarto and Marzuki Uzman at the BPK, but when was the last time you met with either the Chairman of the DPA or the Chairman of the BPK?”

Silence.

“They’re not going to want something that smacks of sinecure, they’re going to want something substantial, Mr. President”, said Harsudiono “The Chief Justice of the Supreme Court is not going to work either.”

“The Minister of Home Affairs’ reading of the situation is correct” said Basofi “That leaves the vice presidency and the chairmanship of the DPR/MPR.”

“I’d have to choose between sacrificing Vice President Sumarlin or Chairman Harmoko”, the President was heard muttering.

“Suppose the President tells them “All right, a PPP member can be the Chairman of the DPA”, what would happen?” asked Edi.

“Matori would have a hell of a time convincing the MPR Delegates from Hamzah Haz-supporting portion of the party to vote for the President”, replied Basofi, making mention of the PPP’s Chairman of the National Campaign “We’ll be dropping votes that’s for sure.”

“We don’t need them, we still have the ABRI votes”, said Edi insistently.

“That’s also not at simple as it looks, Edi”, said Harsudiono.

“Why would that be?” Edi asked.

“We’ve managed to purge the upper echelons of ABRI from officers who might be supportive of Tutut and the PKPB but our friend here has passed over Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono twice for the Army Chief of Staff’s position”, said Harsudiono nodding in the President’s direction “And Yudhoyono has a lot of friends and supporters.”

“I know Bambang, he wouldn’t do such a thing”, replied Edi.

“Time will tell, Edi, time will tell”, said Harsudiono.

“The Regional Delegates will be an important source of votes”, said the President.

“They will be, Mr. President”, agreed Basofi “But it all depends on the PPP once again.”

“I don’t follow”, replied the President.

“The 135 Regional Delegates are elected by the 27 Provincial DPRDs”, explained Harsudiono “The new Status and Composition of the MPR, DPR, and DPRD Law stipulates that for someone to be elected a Regional Delegate in the MPR, they need at least 60% of the votes in the DPRD. Now I don’t know about you but I think the PKPI did not get above 60% in any of the 27 provinces at the last elections.”

“Which means combining with the PPP and ABRI in the Provincial DPRDs”, agreed Hendropriyono.

“And the PPP needs to be clear where they stand with us by the middle of next month”, said Harsudiono “Because that’s when the Provincial DPRDs will begin to take office and that’s when they’ll start electing the Regional Dele….”

The President holds his hands up.

“We’ll get to the Regional Delegates when we get to the Regional Delegates, we’ll get to ABRI Delegates when we get to them as well”, he said “Right now let’s just focus on the PPP.”

16th June 2002:
Matori Abdul Djalil joined Chairman of the NU Abdurrahman Wahid for lunch at the latter’s home in Ciganjur, South Jakarta. He found the latter feeling somewhat dejected wishing he could have done more to prevent the PKPB’s victory. Matori told Wahid that if he wanted to make amends, the chance will be at the 2003 MPR General Session. Wahid was impassive, his nose twitching agitatedly. And then he asked why Matori had come.

“There’s an idea gaining currency within the PPP at the moment that given the PKPI’s results, the PPP should be asking for more, Gus”, said Matori “After all, so the argument goes, the President will be more dependent on us.”

“This is Hamzah’s doing *nose twitch*?” asked Wahid “And if the PPP doesn’t get more then what, he’ll take it over to join Tutut?”

“Hamzah has not been helpful in that he keeps on encouraging the idea, Gus, but it’s not his doing”, said Matori “It’s just the the general mood of the party that the PPP should be guaranteed something more if it was to play a larger role in getting President Try re-elected. It’s simple political calculation and I would put myself in a corner if I dismissed it out of hand.”

Wahid thought about it carefully.

“Whatever course of action the party takes, you will need to be at the center of it, *nose twitch*” counselled Wahid “That’s the best way you’re going to help the President.”
 
Oh boy will Gus Dur becomes the (vice)president but this time by Hamzah's dengkul and he's totally gonna regret it cause they complement each others weakness extremely well and most like gonna go even harder against extremism and corruption due to the duo's gonna be untouchable to black campaign both figures were up against OTL(former commander of ABRI and a respected islamic scholar with both being a nationalist.... I can only get so hard 🤤)

This might not be the worst trade deal Try's gonna take(and Indonesia as a whole in the long run) but finger crossed our boy Sumarlin gonna have a fighting chance.
 
Oh boy will Gus Dur becomes the (vice)president but this time by Hamzah's dengkul and he's totally gonna regret it cause they complement each others weakness extremely well and most like gonna go even harder against extremism and corruption due to the duo's gonna be untouchable to black campaign both figures were up against OTL(former commander of ABRI and a respected islamic scholar with both being a nationalist.... I can only get so hard 🤤)

This might not be the worst trade deal Try's gonna take(and Indonesia as a whole in the long run) but finger crossed our boy Sumarlin gonna have a fighting chance.
Who says Hamzah are pushing things for Gus Dur’s sake😈?

The PPP’s internal dynamics ITTL is an interesting one. They are kept together by only t things at this stage:
1. Golkar’s break-up and the possibility of doing better at the 2002 Elections.

2. Being in coalition with Try’s government and the possibility of getting more government positions.

And look guys... A cameo
Hahahaha, you noticed that cameo, huh?

Pretty much anyone who is/has been prominent in the OTL PKPI will do well ITTL. Siswono, Sarwono, Meutia Hatta, and Hayono Isman being in the ITTL cabinet is a reference to their involvement with OTL PKPI. The same goes with Hendropriyono running the PKPI’s national campaign. OTL Basofi was also involved with the PKPI and was at one stage a chairman candidate. Sutiyoso will also have his time and role ITTL.

I’d figure the whatever it is that attracted them to the OTL PKPI (formed by OTL Try and Edi) would have attracted them to joining Try’s regime.
 
Wonder how Try's going to handle the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami and its aftermath--Banda Aceh was hit hard by the earthquake and tsunami...

Good updates, BTW...
 
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Wonder how Try's going to handle the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami and its aftermath--Banda Aceh was hit hard by the earthquake and tsunami...

Good updates, BTW...
The tsunami was a godsend for Indonesian unity. It ripped the heart out of the Aceh Independence Movement, which would've fought on without a couple thousand of them swept out into the Indian Ocean along with everthing else.
 
182: Multiple Fronts
17th June 2002:
The DPR returns for its first session after the election. Chairman of the DPR Harmoko in his speech to the DPR members called on the DPR to rise to the President’s call to work on the interests of the nation and the interests of the people. Harmoko identified the Workforce Bill as a bill that urgently needs to be completed before the current DPR term is completed. There were jeers from the PKPB members when Harmoko said that the work must continue regardless of the election results with yells of “You would want to ignore the election results, would you?” and “The countdown is on for both Harmoko and the President”.

At the Department of Foreign Affairs, Minister of Foreign Affairs Ginandjar Kartasasmita held a press conference on the situation in Papua New Guinea. Papua New Guinea has been holding its elections since 15th June in a process that is scheduled to last two weeks. In the past two days alone, news of developments from Papua New Guinea has made it clear that this election will be marred by electoral violence and intimidation.

“The Indonesian Government, whilst wishing for a peaceful conduct of the election, wishes to emphasize that this is an internal problem for Papua New Guinea to solve on its own. Indonesia has no interest in Papua New Guinea except to have a good diplomatic relationship with it, regardless of who wins the election.”

18th June 2002:
Minister of Forestry and Environment Barnabas Suebu, State Minister of State-Owned Enterprises Cacuk Sudarijanto, Commander of ABRI Wiranto, Head of BAPPEDAL Erna Witoelar, and Attorney General Soedjono C. Atmonegoro held a press conference after meeting President Try Sutrisno.

Acting as the group’s spokesperson, Barnabas said the President has approved of the formation of the Forestry Concessions Regulatory Compliance Taskforce or the Taskforce 186 for short. Barnabas said that the formation of this taskforce is the expression of the President’s seriousness about making ensure regulatory compliance on the part of forest concessionaires. Barnabas points to the presence of the Attorney General on the taskforce saying that the government intends not only to withdraw the forest concessions but also to prosecute those who have not complied. It was pointed out that Head of BKPM Mari Pangestu and Cabinet Secretary Hayono Isman are also part of this taskforce though they are away overseas on a Vice Presidential trip.

19th June 2002:
Footage of Australian Minister for Defense Peter Reith’s reaction to the Indonesian Government’s statement on the situation on Papua New Guinea featured across various Indonesian news bulletins. Reith gave what could only be described as a backhanded acknowledgement of the statement saying that he thanked Indonesia for the statement saying that it has done “much to address concerns in Australia about Indonesia’s intentions towards Papua New Guinea and that we in Australia will hold Indonesia to account for the statement it has made.”

Minister of Information, Post, and Telecommunications Oka Mahendra came out of a meeting with the President to address this matter. He called on all television networks and newspapers to tone down Reith’s statement but then proceeded to add his own fuel to the fire.

“Part of the Department of Information, Post, and Telecommunications’ brief is to monitor how Indonesia is being presented in other countries and as far as how Indonesia is faring in the Australian media, especially in the lead-up to the election in the Papua New Guinean Election…” said Oka Mahendra as he trailed of and sighed “I am truly disgusted with the way Indonesia is being presented as having an interest in the Papua New Guinean Election, that there are what the Australian media calls “Pro-Indonesian” candidates participating in the Papua New Guinean Election, and that Indonesia wants to take advantage of the situation in Papua New Guinea.”

20th June 2002:
The President arrived at the Panasonic Global Battery’s lithium coin battery factory at the Cibitung Industrial Estate, West Java this morning. With Minister of Industry Siswono Yudohusodo and Governor of West Java Muzani Syukur besides him the President inaugurated the following projects, most of them remotely:

*Panasonic Global Battery’s lithium coin battery factory at the Cibitung Industrial Estate, West Java
*Expansion of LG Electronics’ factory (produces televisions) in Cibitung, West Java
*Expansion of LG Electronics’ factory (produces refrigerators) in Tangerang, West Java
*Astra Honda Motor’s third motorcycle assembly factory in Cikarang, West Java
*Bu Kyung footwear factory in Karawang, West Java
*Unilever’s skincare products factory in Cikarang, West Java
*Establishments and/or expansions of Sentra Usahatama Jaya, Permata Dunia Sukses Utama, Angels Product, and Jawamanis Refinasi’s sugar refining factories

“These factories which I have just inaugurated are visible signs of the strength of the Indonesian economy”, the President said in his speech “Not only will these factories produce goods which will be consumed in Indonesia, but these goods will also be exported overseas to markets around the world”.

As the President toured the lithium coin battery factory, there were questions thrown by the members of the press about the “situation with Australia”. He only smiled and waved.

Back in Jakarta, the news was of Oka Mahendra coming under attack from the Australian media with The Australian newspaper characterizing him as running a “Goebbels-like government institution”. On the government front, Reith did not help matters by saying that this shows that he’s not the only one that holds such sentiments in Australia.

21st June 2002:
The DPR today passed into law the Government Regulation in Lieu of the Law on Amendments to 1992 Immigration Law. In his statement, Minister of Legal Affairs Marzuki Darusman said that passage of this law meant that the DPR had ratified the government policy of taking in over 30,000 Myanmarians. Vice Chairman of the DPR Theo Sambuaga, a PKPB Member, said that the only reason the law was passed was because of the PKPI’s existing majority and that he believes that taking in Myanmarians places extra burden on the government, distracting it focus from Indonesians.

Prime Minister of Malaysia Najib Razak and Malaysian Minister of Foreign Affairs Rais Yatim today announces that Malaysia was suspending its participation in the Singapore-Johor-Riau Growth Triangle, the Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand-Growth Triangle (IMT-GT), and the Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines-East ASEAN Growth Area (BIMP-EAGA).

22nd June 2002:
The President had a breakfast meeting with State Secretary Edi Sudrajat and Chief of BAKIN Ari Sudewo. He was none too happy about the developments from Australia, the developments from Malaysia and how he hasn’t spoken about it.

“I’ll eventually have to address this matter”, said the President to Edi “You can’t keep delaying me and telling me to skip around the question.”

“I’m sorry Mr. President, you allowed Oka Mahendra to speak freely and he ended up making a small fire bigger”, countered Edi “I don’t know what the solution is but Ginandjar’s idea of speaking strongly will not work.”

The President turned to Ari.

“The State Secretary is right, Mr. President, for the moment restraint is advisable” explained Ari “What is happening now is a version of what you expressed concern about in March…focusing on ASEAN and China means turning Indonesia’s back on Oceania, in this case Australia. Just at a time when we’re dealing with the aftermath of allowing Shwe Mann and his followers refuge in our country, Australia decides to give us trouble; accusing us of wanting to benefit from the situation in Papua New Guinea. And when we are focusing on Australia, Malaysia decides to mess with us.”

“Yes, what I’m worried about is having multiple fronts to deal”, muttered the President “Not necessarily militarily but…well…like what we have now.”

“The Vice President is due back from his overseas trip in the middle of next week and has asked to meet with you”, Edi told the President “The way he requested the meeting when he talked to me on the phone, I think he has something important to say about the current situation. Can you hold yourself from making a statement until then, Mr. President?”

23rd June 2002:
At the Granadi Building in Kuningan, Jakarta, the PKPB held a slametan to celebrate its election victory. Chairwoman of the PKPB Tutut Soeharto presided over the cutting of the tumpeng rice, giving the first cut to Chairman of the PKPB National Campaign Prabowo Subianto and publicly crediting him for leading to the PKPB to its victory. Prabowo retorted that with the election victory, the PKPB could now focus on getting Tutut elected as the 4th President of the Republic of Indonesia, a comment that got a lot of cheers in the room.

In her speech, Tutut called for leadership from the President on the situation between Malaysia and Australia which is happening simultaneously. On the domestic front, Tutut made the argument that as the party with the most seats, the next chairman of the DPR/MPR should be a PKPB member.

Tutut also highlighted other PKPB members who has performed strongly in the campaign. These included Sjafrie Sjamsoeddin who had helped lead the PKPB to victory in South Sulawesi and Ratu Atut Chosiyah, who secured victory for the PKPB in West Java’s Banten region despite the economic activity generated there.

24th June 2002:
Taking some time to speak off-text at an event he attended, Minister of Maritime Affairs and Fisheries Tanto Kuswanto delivered a tirade saying that whilst Sipadan and Ligitan is “out of our hands” because it is in front of an international court, the Navy, which had gotten stronger under the leadership, must defend any territorial claims that Malaysia has. If necessary this defense must be conducted by force.

At the DPR building, Harmoko was asked about the comments Tutut Soeharto made the previous day. After expressing his “complete trust” that the President will provide the necessary leadership on the international situation that Indonesia is facing, Harmoko addressed Tutut’s statement that the next chairman of the DPR/MPR should be a PKPB member. Harmoko pointed out that Idham Chalid, the Chairman of the DPR/MPR between 1971 and 1977, did not originate from Golkar.

25th June 2002:
The PPP’s DPR members were having fun with Harmoko’s comments. With microphones thrust to his face, the Leader of the PPP in the DPR Zarkasih Nur reminded Harmoko that Idham Chalid originated from the PPP and said that perhaps the next Chairman of the DPR/MPR should be a PPP member.

In a speech to foreign journalists, Minister of Economics and National Development Planning Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti said that the economic situation in the country after the election remained strong. The economic activity generated by the election campaign has gone and is now replaced by economic activity generated by the school holidays and tourists coming in. The currency has been fluctuating but has been trending down, reaching Rp. 4,201. The upside of that is that exports have become cheaper, investing in Indonesia has become cheaper, and tourism has become cheaper. The international economy is in better shape than in 2001 so the international situation is good for the Indonesian economy.

26th June 2002:
In a press conference at the State Secretariat, Edi Sudrajat called on all government officials to refrain from making statements about the current situation Indonesia is facing with Australia and Malaysia; waiting instead for the President to issue a statement on the issue.

Watching all of this on the television screen was Ginandjar Kartasasmita who was having his dinner with Former Vice President Sudharmono.

“Why is he holding out on making a statement?” asked Sudharmono “He’s taken such an interest in foreign affairs after the nation got out of the crisis that this is uncharacteristic of him…I don’t like it, we need him to be interested in foreign affairs so he can become more reliant on you and you can become more powerful.”

“The President relies on me when it comes to foreign policy but he doesn’t necessarily trust me”, chuckled Ginandjar before answering Sudharmono’s question “The State Secretary has told me that the President wants to wait until the Vice President comes back from his trip and see what he has to say before saying anything public.”

As if on cue, the image of Edi Sudrajat dissolved to an image of a Garuda Indonesia Airplane which had arrived at Halim Perdanakusuma Airport. Vice President JB Sumarlin and Second Lady Sudarmi Sumarlin stepped out of it and disappeared inside their Vice Presidential Car after shaking hands with the pilot and crew.

Sudharmono watched at Sumarlin’s image and bristled; the idea of a president holding out on making a statement because he wants to consult a vice president being so foreign to him.

---
The ITTL PNG Elections are similar to its OTL counterpart (http://archive.ipu.org/parline-e/reports/arc/2247_02.htm and http://edition.cnn.com/2002/WORLD/asiapcf/auspac/07/11/png.violence.polls/index.html). The difference is that Australia is suspicious that Indonesia might want to take advantage or benefits from the election turning violent.

These factories were inaugurated OTL in 2006-2008. I am using the same assumptions as with the various infrastructures. Better economic conditions and prospects leading to these factories being established earlier.

Malaysia suspending its participation from various ASEAN sub-regional cooperations only happens ITTL and is meant to be provocative towards Indonesia.

The race for chairmanship of the DPR/MPR is going to start soon. Harmoko thinks it should be him, Tutut thinks it should be a PKPB member, and the PPP’s getting ideas too.

Sudharmono feeling a whiff of jealousy there. The VP’s position during Soeharto’s presidency has been nicknamed as the “spare tire”. Basically even though their photographs hangs with that of Soeharto’s and they get to sit next to Soeharto in state events, Soeharto’s VPs usually aren’t given anything substantial to do.
 
Wonder how Try's going to handle the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami and its aftermath--Banda Aceh was hit hard by the earthquake and tsunami...

Good updates, BTW...
The tsunami was a godsend for Indonesian unity. It ripped the heart out of the Aceh Independence Movement, which would've fought on without a couple thousand of them swept out into the Indian Ocean along with everthing else.
Will be difficult to butterfly away a tsunami, but the political dynamics when it happens it will be different than OTL.

Ginandjar feels like hes losing his grip on foreign affairs. But the fire started in Australia... Damn.
Keep watching for the continuing development of Try and Ginandjar’s relationship. Try and Ginandjar’s relationship is one of those “they work well but they can’t really trust each other”.

Well, an Indonesian-Australian relationship isn’t complete without some kind of an incident.
 
Isn't the PLAN still growing as of 2004? So it was no in the position to threaten American allies in the Pacific at this period.
Buddy it's just China stick towards their blue print to develop their military. Hell even above 2000 they laying out new ships every year. They aware that they can only compete with numbers. No wonder they build new ships every year. The most frightening thing majority world power still do not aware how fast China develop their military from backward military towards modern armament with integrated system. Indonesia on this story have great chance to make some fight unlike on OTL. Still too far head to head against South East Fleet PLAN.
 
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When it comes to estimating ITTL ABRI’s potential strength compared to ITTL PLA (which should be similar to OTL PLA), I’ve used the following method :

In OTL, the PLA began the modernization which made it the military power we know today in the mid-1990s after seeing the US win comprehensively in the Gulf War. (https://www.jstor.org/stable/10.7249/j.ctt13x1fwr.8#metadata_info_tab_contents)

In OTL, the TNI begins its Minimum Essential Force program in 2009. So in OTL, the TNI is about 15 years behind the PLA in terms of modernization programs.

In ITTL, ABRI began to strengthen and modernize in 1999. So ITTL, ABRI is about 4-5years behind the PLA.
 
When it comes to estimating ITTL ABRI’s potential strength compared to ITTL PLA (which should be similar to OTL PLA), I’ve used the following method :

In OTL, the PLA began the modernization which made it the military power we know today in the mid-1990s after seeing the US win comprehensively in the Gulf War. (https://www.jstor.org/stable/10.7249/j.ctt13x1fwr.8#metadata_info_tab_contents)

In OTL, the TNI begins its Minimum Essential Force program in 2009. So in OTL, the TNI is about 15 years behind the PLA in terms of modernization programs.

In ITTL, ABRI began to strengthen and modernize in 1999. So ITTL, ABRI is about 4-5years behind the PLA.
I disagree with those statements. We are behind 50 years than PLA. We lacks funds, technology access, no tactical weapon aka nuke, independent missile production, blue print, open white paper (threat on defence), industry to produce military weapon, and major radar station minimally like Jindalee on Australia. Remember China before western sanction have access weaponry technology from French, Germany, Italia, Dutch and Spain. Again their industry already mature with how they produce MBT, IFV, APC, Warship, military aircraft, and Helicopter every year. Basically Indonesia is fubar unless use any means necessary to catching up with South East Fleet and RAN.
 
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183: Picking Our Fights
27th June 2002:
At the Presidential Palace today, President Try Sutrisno met with Vice President JB Sumarlin; the latter having returned from his overseas trip. Sumarlin reported to the President about his visit overseas but both men knew this was just warm-up for what they wanted to talk about.

“Well, Mr. Vice President, you asked for this meeting because you wanted to have your say about the situations with Australia and Malaysia”, said the President.

Sumarlin nodded.

“Mr. President, under your leadership our nation has become stronger, in the last few months alone we forced Saudi Arabia to back down when it showed displeasure towards us by ceasing work on Exor II and in the last few weeks we completed the evacuation of Shwe Mann and his followers” said Sumarlin “But as regards the situations with Australia and Malaysia, I must ask you that our response must not be an aggressive one.”

“Australia is accusing us of benefitting from the election violence in Papua New Guinea, Malaysia suspended its participation in various sub-regional cooperation in which we are involved”, said the President “Some say that warrants the strongest of responses.”

“Excepting the Asian Financial Crisis when they became worried that we might not handle the crisis, Australia has always been wary of us even before you decided to increase the defense spending”, explained Sumarlin “And Malaysia, well, these days they can’t go through a press conference or a statement related to Indonesia without the words “hegemonic aspirations””.

The President looked on.

“We make a fight out of this with Australia and I can only imagine what they will end up whispering about us to the White House and 10 Downing Street”, continued Sumarlin “We make a fight out of this with Malaysia and we may just give credibility to their accusation that we have “hegemonic aspirations” in the region and we can say goodbye to any idea of the region uniting behind us to stand up to China because we’re too weak to take on China on our own.”

“You said that we have gotten stronger, Mr. Vice President”, said the President.

“But not strong enough that we don’t need to pick our fights” said Sumarlin.

The meeting not long after that. When Sumarlin emerged out of it, he told the press that he and the President discussed the current economic situation.

28th June 2002:
Minister of Foreign Affairs Ginandjar Kartasasmita held a press conference. He announced that the President had had a phonecall with Prime Minister of Australia Peter Costello. Both the President and Prime Minister Costello agreed that there has been a misunderstanding between officials in both countries and that both Indonesia and Australia want to continue having a productive and mutually beneficial relationship with Papua New Guinea regardless of who wins there.

Ginandjar then also announced that the President expresses his disappointment that Malaysia is suspending its participation in various ASEAN sub-regional forums but that it was a decision for Malaysia to make.

29th June 2002:
Chairwoman of the PNI Megawati Soekarnoputri writes an op-ed in The Jakarta Post saying that one of the government’s redeeming features has been its increasingly “vocal” stance on the world stage and that with the “weak” respective statements on Australia and Malaysia, this redeeming feature is now gone.

Chairman of the PKPI Basofi Sudirman had a private meeting with Chairman of the PPP Matori Abdul Djalil. Basofi asked Matori if there were any policies that the PPP would like to see adopted by the government and the PKPI. Matori only chuckled at this.

“The only policy that the PPP is interested in at the moment is the policy of achieving high office”, he said.

30th June 2002:
The President today held a watch party at the Presidential Palace on the occasion of the final of the 2002 World Cup. The President was seen being accompanied by State Minister of Youth and Sports Hajriyanto Thohari and Chairman of KONI IGK Manila. But Chairman of the DPR Harmoko was also there and together he and the President faced some questioning about their future prospects by members of the press eager to get a scoop.

“I will be part of the conversation about who will be the Chairman of the DPR/MPR just as President Try will be part of the conversation about who will be the President of the Republic of Indonesia”, said Harmoko using a by-now familiar line.

“When the time comes, such questions will eventually be answered both for the Chairman and myself”, said the President “Right now we are focused on working in however much time we have left in our respective terms.”

1st July 2002:
Minister of Economics and National Development Planning Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, Minister of Finance Mar’ie Muhammad, and Governor of BI Boediono held a press conference after meeting with the President and Vice President. Boediono held center stage as he announced that the President has approved of an interest rate rise having taken into account of the following factors:

*Due to the international economic downturn last year, the strong demand generated by and continuously strong consumption numbers has not resulted in inflationary pressures in Indonesia. Indonesia has either been able to take advantage of cheaper prices of goods abroad or some of goods which were originally planned to be exported, such as various consumer goods, has been absorbed by the Indonesian market. With improved economic conditions abroad, producers and exporters are now seeking to export their goods even as demand from the domestic market remains strong which will put pressure on prices.

*It cannot be denied that in recent months, but especially since late May, the Rupiah’s fluctuations has tended downwards. This is good for exports but where imported goods and materials are required for production, costs will go up which will then put pressure on prices to go up if no steps are taken.

When asked if the interest rate rise has anything to do with how the Rupiah had performed since the market caught wind of the possibility and then the reality of a PKPB election victory, Boediono denied it saying that with the strong economic expansion that Indonesia has been going through since mid-to-late 1999 an interest rate rise to “cool the economy a little” and ease the pressure on prices has always been on the cards since last year. It was just the case that with the economic downturn internationally last year and 9/11, the government did not want to risk slowing down economic growth.

2nd July 2002:
Looking most pleased at his press conference, Minister of Industry Siswono Yudohusodo announced that the IPTN’s N-250 has received FAA Certification. Siswono said that an FAA Certification is the highest certification that could be obtained in the aviation industry and that this will give credibility to the N-250 as it is sold on the market.

Minister of Manpower and Small Business Fahmi Idris met with Harmoko this morning at the DPR Building. Harmoko notified Fahmi that a Special Committee had been created to pay special focus on the Manpower Bill so that it can be passed before the current DPR term is finished. The PKPI’s Jakob Tobing will chair the Special Committee.

Fahmi would recall Harmoko as grumbling that the President did not use the opportunity to show some form of support.

3rd July 2002:
State Minister of National Security Soerjadi stated in a press conference that the Indonesian Contingent Command participating in the campaign against the Abu Sayyaf in the Philippines has today participated in operations to eliminate Abu Sayyaf Senior Operative Abu Sabaya. Though an Armed Forces of the Philippines personnel fired the decisive shot, the intelligence that made the operation possible was supplied by ABRI personnel. Abu Sabaya was an influential figure who had been influential in organizing 13 kidnapping incidents. Soerjadi said that this represents Indonesia’s commitment to both dealing with the Extreme Right and regional security.

In the aftermath of the interest rate rise, the Rupiah has strengthened to Rp. 4,190= $1.

At the Department of Foreign Affairs, Ginandjar held a press conference to read a statement on behalf of the Indonesian Government. The statement was in regard to the elections in Papua New Guinea which had concluded with no clear majority and expressed the Indonesian Government’s hope that the political uncertainty will be solved by the leaders of Papua New Guinea itself.

4th July 2002:
At the Presidential Palace today, the President together with Minister of Agriculture Sarwono Kusumaatmadja, Head of Bulog Adang Ruchiatna, and Head of Setdal Bimas Usman Hasan together officially launched the Bimas Program for Sago. In the presence of agricultural extension officers who will provide guidance to sago growers, the President hit a gong and delivered a speech.

“The Bimas Program which had once contributed to Indonesia’s achievement of rice self-sufficiency will now be extended to sago”, said the President “Sago growers will be given access to credit and agricultural extension officers to provide information and guidance about growing sago as well as fertilizer. For now this program will only be applied in Maluku, East Nusa Tenggara, and Irian Jaya.”

5th July 2002:
At the Vice Presidential Palace today, JB Sumarlin was visited by Governor of Lemhanas Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono who brought with him the most recent batch of Lemhanas General Course Participants. Sumarlin rose to the occasion by sharing his thoughts on how the nation should best go forward in his speech.

“No matter how assertive this nation becomes on the world stage or how strong its military becomes, it must never forget the function played by economics. It is the growth that we have generated, the exports we have sent overseas, the investment we have attracted and the infrastructure and factories we’ve built, that has allowed us to stand tall and speak more loudly in front of the world; that has allowed us to strengthen our military capability.

Our foreign policy and military spending must always be in line with our level of economic development. It is no use for this nation to be assertive and to have a strong military but to be without the means to sustain itself and its people. We court disaster when we pursue foreign policy and military spending that exceeds our economic capacity.”

The President’s lunch partners after Friday Prayer were State Secretary Edi Sudrajat and OCDS Sugeng Subroto. It was Sumarlin’s speech which they now discussed.

“What do you suppose the Vice President is doing, Mr. President?” asked Edi “Is he trying to distance himself from you or something?”

Try only chuckled.

“Remember the meeting that I had with him last week?” Try asked “Those were the exact same lines he used when the meeting was coming to an end, I’m better of focusing on making sure electricity generators and airports, ports, and roads are built or making sure the people are educated and employed so that when push comes to shove, I can shove back even harder.”

“The nation has become more confident of itself under your leadership”, muttered Edi as he ate his lunch “We cooled things down with the Malaysians and the Aussies after the Vice President gave his advice but maybe we could have done something to show that we aren’t to be messed with.”

“It’s not that I don’t disagree with him”, said Try “I’ve said it myself too that we’re able to take the stances we have taken in foreign affairs and buy more weapons because we’re in a good economic position.”

Sugeng Subroto looked thoughtful.

“There’s nothing wrong with what he’s doing, Mr. President”, said Sugeng “Having a dissenting voice in the room is not without its uses…”

“But when that dissenting voice is the Vice President’s…?”, argued Edi.

“Especially when the dissenting voice is the Vice President’s” insisted Sugeng “It will force the President to make sure that his reasoning is sound when he makes decisions that concerns the interests of the nation. And if the President is on the verge of making the wrong decision, what’s so bad about the only different opinion in the room forcing him to change his mind.”

“You seem to feel pretty strongly about this”, said Try to Sugeng.

“Because a dissenting voice helped along your nomination for the vice presidency, Mr. President”, explained Sugeng “Those of us at the Department of Defense and Security under Pak Benny were having a meeting about how should ABRI nominate you. There were two options: the first was to ask for President Soeharto’s permission to nominate you for the vice presidency; the second was to nominate you without asking his permission.”

Try listened on.

“Most in the room thought we should ask for Soeharto’s permission, only Parapat, the Director General of Planning and Budgeting said that you should be nominated without Soeharto’s permission” continued Sugeng “I yelled at him for not knowing manners but Parapat said if we asked for Soeharto’s permission and he doesn’t give it, what should we do then with your nomination. Nobody could answer Parapat’s question and that was when Pak Benny said that ABRI should nominate you for vice president without Soeharto’s permission.”

Try and Edi looked at Sugeng thoughtfully.

“He’s done much good for your government and will do more good in the future” said Sugeng pointing at Sumarlin’s image on the screen “Please make sure he gets re-elected along with you.”

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This one is a Sumarlin-centric update. Begins with Sumarlin reminding Try not to get into any possible fight guns-blazing and ends with a member of Try's inner circle saying that Sumarlin should also be re-elected.

OTL Abu Sayyaf’s Abu Sabaya was eliminated by both the AFP and US Military personnel.

Sugeng Subroto’s story about the idea of nominating Try as VP without Soeharto’s permission being originally an unpopular idea is based on https://www.satuharapan.com/read-de...mangapul-parapat-perwira-nasionalis-yang-lugu
 
I have been reading this timeline for the last month just caught up.This is my favourite timeline on this site.I love Try as the president I wish we had a prime minister like him in Pakistan
 
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