Indonesia ATL: The Presidency of Try Sutrisno (1997-)

179: Beyond Doubt
30th May 2002:
President Try Sutrisno was today at Yogyakarta to act as a witness at the wedding of Princess Pembayun, the eldest daughter of Governor of Yogyakarta Sultan Hamengkubuwono X and State Minister of Poverty Reduction GKR Hemas. The ceremony was elaborate and it was while the President and First Lady Tuti Setiawati were having their pictures taken with the bride and groom that the President took the opportunity of standing next to Hamengkubuwono to chat with him.

Though the President praised Hamengkubuwono for leading the PKPI to a likely victory in Yogyakarta, Hamengkubuwono was more sober. He told the President that even if the PKPI won in Yogyakarta, it will be a close-run thing.

“One thing this election will reveal is how hell-bent the Chairwoman of the PKPB is to stand where you are standing, Mr. President”, said Hamengkubuwono as the President and the First Lady got off the stage.

31st May 2002:
The President posed for pictures with members of the Indonesian National Badminton Team who recently participated in the 2002 Thomas and Uber Cup. The male badminton team won Thomas Cup while the female badminton team came third in the Uber Cup. State Minister of Youth and Sports Hajriyanto Thohari, speaking to the press, said that the President told him that Indonesia should attempt to become stronger in other sports and spoke of the possibility of participating at the next Football World Cup. It was too late to qualify for the 2002 World Cup because it was due to begin that very night.

Chairman of the PKPB National Campaign Prabowo Subianto’s interview on RCTI made the headlines today. Prabowo acknowledged the government for making maximum use of its incumbency most notably by inaugurating projects during the election campaign to show that it was doing something and by entering into a formal coalition with the PPP. At the same time, he knew that the government was going to overstretch.

“There was no need for a reshuffle so close to the election because most of the ministers appointed in the reshuffle have not done much by election time because they’re still learning on the job” Prabowo “One of the results of the reshuffle even backfired; the removal of Jusuf Kalla allowed us to have a strong performance in South Sulawesi.”

When asked about the interview, Chairman of the PPP National Campaign Hamzah Haz said that the PKPB had admittedly ran a strong campaign. Hamzah however, was more concerned about the President’s comments from the previous week saying that the PKPI could rely on the PPP’s support for political stability. Hamzah said that the PKPI had a weaker performance in the election and the PPP had a stronger than expected performance so it should not take the PPP’s support for granted.

1st June 2002:
Chairman of the PPP Matori Abdul Djalil in a press conference said that Hamzah Haz’s statement does not represent the PPP as an institution. He said that whatever next step for the PPP going forward will be decided at the National Work Meeting which will be held once the votes are counted.

Accompanied by her supporters, Chairwoman of the PNI Megawati Soekarnoputri led a solemn ceremony in front of the BP-7 Building. In her speech, Megawati promised to designate 1st June Pancasila Day and to reform the BP-7 so that it will disseminate Pancasila as formulated by Soekarno not by the New Order. When reminded by reporters present that she would need to be the president to realize these things and that at present the PNI was coming last in the vote counting, Megawati smiled in response.

“There is always a way if you are acting on behalf of the people”, she said cryptically.

2nd June 2002:
With Minister of Legal Affairs Marzuki Darusman coming in to work on a Sunday to join him, the President signed a Presidential Decree which gives a visa waiver to all 30,439 men, women, and children who has arrived from Myanmar. Marzuki said that from his end, he will issue them all with Limited Stay Permits.

“I guess all that remains to be done is to announce that they’re here”, said the President as he closed his pen “I keep on thinking that Khin Nyunt will start denouncing unnamed nations for hiding Shwe Mann and then I’d be forced to open my cards.”

“I don’t think it will be like that, Mr. President”, said Marzuki “He’s going to want to come across as the aggrieved party; he’ll wait until whenever you decide to announce it to make it seem like you caught him off-guard. And if the press enquiries that my department are getting and trying miserably to ignore are any indication, it will be soon.”

3rd June 2002:
The first engagement of the working week for the President was a breakfast meeting with Vice President JB Sumarlin. They spoke about the general economic conditions and agreed that whatever steps the government can take must wait the official announcement of the election results. For the moment, when it came to economics, Sumarlin wanted to talk about something else.

“Commodities boom?” asked the President.

“Yes, Mr. President”, replied Sumarlin “When you’ve got large growing economies like China, India, Russia, Brazil and of course, us, running and shopping around for raw materials, the combined demand has the capability to push the prices of commodities up.”

“Is this a good thing or a bad thing for Indonesia, Mr. Vice President?” asked the President.

“It’s not good or bad, it just needs to be managed”, replied Sumarlin “For example, say the there’s a lot of demand for coal and coal prices go up…”

“We have a lot of coal, we can export it when the prices are good, we get a lot of revenue, more money for infrastructure, schools, hospitals”, finished the President “Don’t want to miss out on great prices on the world market, Mr. Vice President.”

“But on the other hand, your leadership in the last few years has seen the completion of a lot of electricity generators many of which require coal as a fuel, Mr. President”, explained Sumarlin “We don’t want to be exporting our commodities only to turn around and find out we can’t meet our domestic demand.”

“This complicates matters…” muttered the President.

The two sat silently across the table from one another.

“We are just at the beginning of this boom, it will be some time before hit the peak”, said Sumarlin “And I would sleep easier if such problems and issues are managed by you instead of one of the Presidential daughters.”

The President chuckled.

“Thank you for the endorsement, Mr. Vice President”, said the President “Actually, that is what I want to discuss with you as well.”

Sumarlin positioned himself to listen.

“The election is over and the results are only a matter of time, so I think I can say this unequivocally without having to resort to signals, gestures, body languages, nuances, or things that people with too much times in their hands will read into”, said the President “At the 2003 MPR General Session, it’s my intention to put my name forward and nominate for another term as president.”

Sumarlin smiled and shook hands with the President at the news.

“That’s great news, Mr. President”, said Sumarlin “Great news for the nation.”

The President smiled at that though his face quickly became serious.

“Like you though, I too want to sleep easier at night”, added the President “Which is why I want to ask you, Mr. Vice President, to put your name forward for another term when the time comes.”

Sumarlin looked surprised.

“Take as much time as you want, Mr. Vice President, we still have 9 months”, said the President “You’re the economist, you probably see the potential for the nation if this commodities boom is managed properly more clearly than I do. I’d hate to miss out on maximizing the benefits of this boom for the nation if I were you.”

4th June 2002:
Minister of Foreign Affairs Ginandjar Kartasasmita held a press conference after meeting with the President at the Presidential Palace. Ginandjar said that Indonesia continues to monitor the situation between India and Pakistan after the Kaluchak Massacre and is concerned that nuclear weapons are even part of the conversation. Ginandjar said that Indonesia urges the United States, Russia, and China to pressure India and Pakistan to back down but that in order for that to happen, Chief Executive of Pakistan Aziz Khan needs to resolutely condemn and take action against Lashkar-E-Toiba.

Closer to home, Ginandjar was asked about the upcoming election in Papua New Guinea. Ginandjar dismisses any notion that there is a political party with “Pro-Indonesian orientation” participating in the elections and says that Indonesia does not have any stake in the election other than a desire for continued good relations between Indonesia and Papua New Guinea that has been built over the last few years.

“What about the election results in our country?” asked a reporter “Do you have any stakes in that?”

“This will be a boring answer to you but I’m too busy to follow domestic politics as minister of foreign affairs”, lied Ginandjar.

5th June 2002:
The President, accompanied by Commander of ABRI Wiranto, today met with Minister of Defense and Security Wismoyo Arismunandar who had just returned from the United States and asked how was his trip. Wismoyo said that he had signed a contract to purchase 4 Kidd-Class Destroyers, payment to be made in installments starting from next fiscal year. The ships were originally going to go to Taiwan until it got a government that was pro-mainland and did not want to cause “undue provocation”.

“What about the big ticket item?” asked the President.

“The Administration’s reluctant to agree straightaway on letting us have the 28 F-16s, Mr. President”, said Wismoyo “Some whispers within the Administration about whether or not the United States are making Indonesia too strong…the State Department and the Pentagon approves, not so the Treasury Department and the Vice President’s office.”

The President grunted.

“If it’s any consolation, I got to meet with President McCain”, continued Wismoyo “It seems Prime Minister Aso has done his share of lobbying. President McCain’s said that he’s willing to hear you out about the aircrafts when you’re there in Washington in October.”

The President nodded his head as he comprehended what Wismoyo is saying, he looked over at Wiranto.

“Don’t worry, I’ll make my case before October”, said the President before turning to Wiranto “The Chief of Police, how is his preparation against the Extreme Right going?”

“Chief of Police Ansyaad Mbai’s preparation is on track, Mr. President”, replied Wiranto.

“This is good but I will to have to ask for more from”, replied the President “Make sure what he is planning is more extensive and more forceful.”

6th June 2002:
A seemingly routine doorstop press conference turned awkward for Minister of Transmigration Indra Bambang Utoyo when he struggled to answer questions from press about the existence of illegal immigrants in transmigration settlements. Indra became defensive and abruptly left the group of reporters.

At night, the President, together with State Secretary Edi Sudrajat met Chairman of the PKPI Basofi Sudirman and Chairman of the PKPI National Campaign Hendropriyono. The latter two had grave expressions on their faces. Basofi handed the President a piece of paper and the President immediately handed it to Edi before standing up from his seat and looking thoughtfully out of the window.

“Mr. President, we want to report that the vote count is beyond doubt now”, said Basofi “We can no longer catch up to the PKPB.”

7th June 2002:
At a morning press conference, Basofi announced the PKPI’s resolve to nominate Gen. (Ret.) Try Sutrisno as president at the 2003 MPR General Session and secure his re-election. Such statements of resolve, however, failed to stop the Rupiah’s value from plummeting from $1= Rp. 4,094 to $1= Rp. 4,110 to the news that the election result is beyond doubt. PKPB supporters are seen gathering at the PKPB National Headquarters to sing songs and celebrate.

That night as she hosted a World Cup watch-party at Cendana Street, Chairwoman of the PKPB Tutut Soeharto said that while she welcomes the news about the election results being beyond doubt, she does not want to claim anything until the vote count becomes official or the PKPI concedes, whichever comes first. She also spoke out against complacency among her followers.

“While we have gained the most seats in the DPR, we are not yet beyond their reach”, said Tutut “They can still chase us. They can still catch us. They will stop at nothing for we are all that stands between them and the world. Until we have gained victory at the MPR General Session, we can never claim to be victorious.”

At the Presidential Palace, the President met with Minister of Home Affairs Harsudiono Hartas. Harsudiono said that Chairman of the KPU HBL Mantiri is seeking permission to announce the election results tomorrow, or one day ahead of schedule, because the vote count will be completed tonight.

“He may announce it whenever he’s ready”, said the President in a tone that he tried to keep as flat as possible.

“I will let him know, Mr. President”, said Harsudiono.

As Harsudiono got up to leave, he turned one more time to look at the President.

“Mr. President…Try…”, began Harsudiono “This is not insurmountable.”

The President looked, almost glared, at Harsudiono.

“If you believe that to be the case, then get me re-elected”, Try said.

---
Yeah, going to get busier again in the next few weeks so I’d like to leave you a cliffy update before a not so lengthy absence. I was supposed to send this before I got started on the countries around the world but somehow I never clicked send so I’ve still got this in hanging around in my documents. Consider it a special treat for you all.

Hamengkubuwono X's eldest daughter gets married three days later than in OTL, going to put that down to butterflies.

The commodities’ boom is the same as in OTL. The difference is that Indonesia will be among the emerging markets looking around for raw materials. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2000s_commodities_boom

Credit to @Dude... for suggesting the Kidd-Class. Going to be a thing ITTL with Indonesia and that it will be looking for weapons where deals have broken down or are not delivered or for which there are a lot of surplus.

The 28 F-16s here were those paid for and originally headed for Pakistan https://foreignpolicy.com/2011/02/03/the-u-s-pakistan-f-16-fiasco/

Just wanted Try to have a little moment with the Harsudiono Hartas who in OTL, got the ball rolling on his VP nomination in 1993.
 
Last edited:
5th June 2002:
The President, accompanied by Commander of ABRI Wiranto, today met with Minister of Defense and Security Wismoyo Arismunandar who had just returned from the United States and asked how was his trip. Wismoyo said that he had signed a contract to purchase 4 Kidd-Class Destroyers, payment to be made in installations starting from next fiscal year.
Installations = instalasi, angsuran = installments.
 
Credit to @Dude... for suggesting the Kidd-Class. Going to be a thing ITTL with Indonesia and that it will be looking for weapons where deals have broken down or are not delivered or for which there are a lot of surplus.

The 28 F-16s here were those paid for and originally headed for Pakistan https://foreignpolicy.com/2011/02/03/the-u-s-pakistan-f-16-fiasco/
Now, two questions arise:
What will Taiwan buy for its navy? Maybe 4 more Oliver Hazard Perry-class frigates?
What will Pakistan buy for its airforce?
 
Australia will want to take advantage of the commodities boom since its the biggest coal exporter. How this will play with Indonesia demands? Remember that Australia is ambivalent, and probably will not want to make Indonesia stronger.

Papua New Guinea obviously is in Indonesia pocket, so its a safe source of commodities. The same can be said of Africa, obviously with the volume compensating for distance.
 
Now, two questions arise:
What will Taiwan buy for its navy? Maybe 4 more Oliver Hazard Perry-class frigates?
What will Pakistan buy for its airforce?
Pakistan had some Dassault Mirage iirc, and still has, so if it doesnt get F-16, will expand the Mirage inventory?
Maybe TTL will butterfly away the JF-17?
 
30th May 2002:
President Try Sutrisno was today at Yogyakarta to act as a witness at the wedding of Princess Pembayun, the eldest daughter of Governor of Yogyakarta Sultan Hamengkubuwono X and State Minister of Poverty Reduction GKR Hemas. The ceremony was elaborate and it was while the President and First Lady Tuti Setiawati were having their pictures taken with the bride and groom that the President took the opportunity of standing next to Hamengkubuwono to chat with him.

Though the President praised Hamengkubuwono for leading the PKPI to a likely victory in Yogyakarta, Hamengkubuwono was more sober. He told the President that even if the PKPI won in Yogyakarta, it will be a close-run thing.

“One thing this election will reveal is how hell-bent the Chairwoman of the PKPB is to stand where you are standing, Mr. President”, said Hamengkubuwono as the President and the First Lady got off the stage.

31st May 2002:
The President posed for pictures with members of the Indonesian National Badminton Team who recently participated in the 2002 Thomas and Uber Cup. The male badminton team won Thomas Cup while the female badminton team came third in the Uber Cup. State Minister of Youth and Sports Hajriyanto Thohari, speaking to the press, said that the President told him that Indonesia should attempt to become stronger in other sports and spoke of the possibility of participating at the next Football World Cup. It was too late to qualify for the 2002 World Cup because it was due to begin that very night.

Chairman of the PKPB National Campaign Prabowo Subianto’s interview on RCTI made the headlines today. Prabowo acknowledged the government for making maximum use of its incumbency most notably by inaugurating projects during the election campaign to show that it was doing something and by entering into a formal coalition with the PPP. At the same time, he knew that the government was going to overstretch.

“There was no need for a reshuffle so close to the election because most of the ministers appointed in the reshuffle have not done much by election time because they’re still learning on the job” Prabowo “One of the results of the reshuffle even backfired; the removal of Jusuf Kalla allowed us to have a strong performance in South Sulawesi.”

When asked about the interview, Chairman of the PPP National Campaign Hamzah Haz said that the PKPB had admittedly ran a strong campaign. Hamzah however, was more concerned about the President’s comments from the previous week saying that the PKPI could rely on the PPP’s support for political stability. Hamzah said that the PKPI had a weaker performance in the election and the PPP had a stronger than expected performance so it should not take the PPP’s support for granted.

1st June 2002:
Chairman of the PPP Matori Abdul Djalil in a press conference said that Hamzah Haz’s statement does not represent the PPP as an institution. He said that whatever next step for the PPP going forward will be decided at the National Work Meeting which will be held once the votes are counted.

Accompanied by her supporters, Chairwoman of the PNI Megawati Soekarnoputri led a solemn ceremony in front of the BP-7 Building. In her speech, Megawati promised to designate 1st June Pancasila Day and to reform the BP-7 so that it will disseminate Pancasila as formulated by Soekarno not by the New Order. When reminded by reporters present that she would need to be the president to realize these things and that at present the PNI was coming last in the vote counting, Megawati smiled in response.

“There is always a way if you are acting on behalf of the people”, she said cryptically.

2nd June 2002:
With Minister of Legal Affairs Marzuki Darusman coming in to work on a Sunday to join him, the President signed a Presidential Decree which gives a visa waiver to all 30,439 men, women, and children who has arrived from Myanmar. Marzuki said that from his end, he will issue them all with Limited Stay Permits.

“I guess all that remains to be done is to announce that they’re here”, said the President as he closed his pen “I keep on thinking that Khin Nyunt will start denouncing unnamed nations for hiding Shwe Mann and then I’d be forced to open my cards.”

“I don’t think it will be like that, Mr. President”, said Marzuki “He’s going to want to come across as the aggrieved party; he’ll wait until whenever you decide to announce it to make it seem like you caught him off-guard. And if the press enquiries that my department are getting and trying miserably to ignore are any indication, it will be soon.”

3rd June 2002:
The first engagement of the working week for the President was a breakfast meeting with Vice President JB Sumarlin. They spoke about the general economic conditions and agreed that whatever steps the government can take must wait the official announcement of the election results. For the moment, when it came to economics, Sumarlin wanted to talk about something else.

“Commodities boom?” asked the President.

“Yes, Mr. President”, replied Sumarlin “When you’ve got large growing economies like China, India, Russia, Brazil and of course, us, running and shopping around for raw materials, the combined demand has the capability to push the prices of commodities up.”

“Is this a good thing or a bad thing for Indonesia, Mr. Vice President?” asked the President.

“It’s not good or bad, it just needs to be managed”, replied Sumarlin “For example, say the there’s a lot of demand for coal and coal prices go up…”

“We have a lot of coal, we can export it when the prices are good, we get a lot of revenue, more money for infrastructure, schools, hospitals”, finished the President “Don’t want to miss out on great prices on the world market, Mr. Vice President.”

“But on the other hand, your leadership in the last few years has seen the completion of a lot of electricity generators many of which require coal as a fuel, Mr. President”, explained Sumarlin “We don’t want to be exporting our commodities only to turn around and find out we can’t meet our domestic demand.”

“This complicates matters…” muttered the President.

The two sat silently across the table from one another.

“We are just at the beginning of this boom, it will be some time before hit the peak”, said Sumarlin “And I would sleep easier if such problems and issues are managed by you instead of one of the Presidential daughters.”

The President chuckled.

“Thank you for the endorsement, Mr. Vice President”, said the President “Actually, that is what I want to discuss with you as well.”

Sumarlin positioned himself to listen.

“The election is over and the results are only a matter of time, so I think I can say this unequivocally without having to resort to signals, gestures, body languages, nuances, or things that people with too much times in their hands will read into”, said the President “At the 2003 MPR General Session, it’s my intention to put my name forward and nominate for another term as president.”

Sumarlin smiled and shook hands with the President at the news.

“That’s great news, Mr. President”, said Sumarlin “Great news for the nation.”

The President smiled at that though his face quickly became serious.

“Like you though, I too want to sleep easier at night”, added the President “Which is why I want to ask you, Mr. Vice President, to put your name forward for another term when the time comes.”

Sumarlin looked surprised.

“Take as much time as you want, Mr. Vice President, we still have 9 months”, said the President “You’re the economist, you probably see the potential for the nation if this commodities boom is managed properly more clearly than I do. I’d hate to miss out on maximizing the benefits of this boom for the nation if I were you.”

4th June 2002:
Minister of Foreign Affairs Ginandjar Kartasasmita held a press conference after meeting with the President at the Presidential Palace. Ginandjar said that Indonesia continues to monitor the situation between India and Pakistan after the Kaluchak Massacre and is concerned that nuclear weapons are even part of the conversation. Ginandjar said that Indonesia urges the United States, Russia, and China to pressure India and Pakistan to back down but that in order for that to happen, Chief Executive of Pakistan Aziz Khan needs to resolutely condemn and take action against Lashkar-E-Toiba.

Closer to home, Ginandjar was asked about the upcoming election in Papua New Guinea. Ginandjar dismisses any notion that there is a political party with “Pro-Indonesian orientation” participating in the elections and says that Indonesia does not have any stake in the election other than a desire for continued good relations between Indonesia and Papua New Guinea that has been built over the last few years.

“What about the election results in our country?” asked a reporter “Do you have any stakes in that?”

“This will be a boring answer to you but I’m too busy to follow domestic politics as minister of foreign affairs”, lied Ginandjar.

5th June 2002:
The President, accompanied by Commander of ABRI Wiranto, today met with Minister of Defense and Security Wismoyo Arismunandar who had just returned from the United States and asked how was his trip. Wismoyo said that he had signed a contract to purchase 4 Kidd-Class Destroyers, payment to be made in installations starting from next fiscal year. The ships were originally going to go to Taiwan until it got a government that was pro-mainland and did not want to cause “undue provocation”.

“What about the big ticket item?” asked the President.

“The Administration’s reluctant to agree straightaway on letting us have the 28 F-16s, Mr. President”, said Wismoyo “Some whispers within the Administration about whether or not the United States are making Indonesia too strong…the State Department and the Pentagon approves, not so the Treasury Department and the Vice President’s office.”

The President grunted.

“If it’s any consolation, I got to meet with President McCain”, continued Wismoyo “It seems Prime Minister Aso has done his share of lobbying. President McCain’s said that he’s willing to hear you out about the aircrafts when you’re there in Washington in October.”

The President nodded his head as he comprehended what Wismoyo is saying, he looked over at Wiranto.

“Don’t worry, I’ll make my case before October”, said the President before turning to Wiranto “The Chief of Police, how is his preparation against the Extreme Right going?”

“Chief of Police Ansyaad Mbai’s preparation is on track, Mr. President”, replied Wiranto.

“This is good but I will to have to ask for more from”, replied the President “Make sure what he is planning is more extensive and more forceful.”

6th June 2002:
A seemingly routine doorstop press conference turned awkward for Minister of Transmigration Indra Bambang Utoyo when he struggled to answer questions from press about the existence of illegal immigrants in transmigration settlements. Indra became defensive and abruptly left the group of reporters.

At night, the President, together with State Secretary Edi Sudrajat met Chairman of the PKPI Basofi Sudirman and Chairman of the PKPI National Campaign Hendropriyono. The latter two had grave expressions on their faces. Basofi handed the President a piece of paper and the President immediately handed it to Edi before standing up from his seat and looking thoughtfully out of the window.

“Mr. President, we want to report that the vote count is beyond doubt now”, said Basofi “We can no longer catch up to the PKPB.”

7th June 2002:
At a morning press conference, Basofi announced the PKPI’s resolve to nominate Gen. (Ret.) Try Sutrisno as president at the 2003 MPR General Session and secure his re-election. Such statements of resolve, however, failed to stop the Rupiah’s value from plummeting from $1= Rp. 4,094 to $1= Rp. 4,110 to the news that the election result is beyond doubt. PKPB supporters are seen gathering at the PKPB National Headquarters to sing songs and celebrate.

That night as she hosted a World Cup watch-party at Cendana Street, Chairwoman of the PKPB Tutut Soeharto said that while she welcomes the news about the election results being beyond doubt, she does not want to claim anything until the vote count becomes official or the PKPI concedes, whichever comes first. She also spoke out against complacency among her followers.

“While we have gained the most seats in the DPR, we are not yet beyond their reach”, said Tutut “They can still chase us. They can still catch us. They will stop at nothing for we are all that stands between them and the world. Until we have gained victory at the MPR General Session, we can never claim to be victorious.”

At the Presidential Palace, the President met with Minister of Home Affairs Harsudiono Hartas. Harsudiono said that Chairman of the KPU HBL Mantiri is seeking permission to announce the election results tomorrow, or one day ahead of schedule, because the vote count will be completed tonight.

“He may announce it whenever he’s ready”, said the President in a tone that he tried to keep as flat as possible.

“I will let him know, Mr. President”, said Harsudiono.

As Harsudiono got up to leave, he turned one more time to look at the President.

“Mr. President…Try…”, began Harsudiono “This is not insurmountable.”

The President looked, almost glared, at Harsudiono.

“If you believe that to be the case, then get me re-elected”, Try said.

---
Yeah, going to get busier again in the next few weeks so I’d like to leave you a cliffy update before a not so lengthy absence. I was supposed to send this before I got started on the countries around the world but somehow I never clicked send so I’ve still got this in hanging around in my documents. Consider it a special treat for you all.

Hamengkubuwono X's eldest daughter gets married three days later than in OTL, going to put that down to butterflies.

The commodities’ boom is the same as in OTL. The difference is that Indonesia will be among the emerging markets looking around for raw materials. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2000s_commodities_boom

Credit to @Dude... for suggesting the Kidd-Class. Going to be a thing ITTL with Indonesia and that it will be looking for weapons where deals have broken down or are not delivered or for which there are a lot of surplus.

The 28 F-16s here were those paid for and originally headed for Pakistan https://foreignpolicy.com/2011/02/03/the-u-s-pakistan-f-16-fiasco/

Just wanted Try to have a little moment with the Harsudiono Hartas who in OTL, got the ball rolling on his VP nomination in 1993.
To be honest I never thought that my suggestion will be implemented. But since how this Indonesia have evolved I guess that’s make sense now (technically this Indonesia will be the first SEA nation to have a ship with powerful Air Defence capability since the Singaporeans have their Formidable class in 2007). Also a welcom surprise about the F-16 maybe in this TL President Try could help Air Force original plan to have up to 60 F-16 to reality. And good to see Try seems has an ambition at least to keep this Indonesia as “sejahtera” and to announce his want to be re elected rather then let them be under the former Presidents daughters. I hope though at the end he will not be Soeharto 2.0 (which obviously he is not from his decisions in the TL). And the commodity boom, that’s gonna be one heck of a big cash flow for Indonesia. Especially with other booming countries like Try said. Selling all of them commodities could be one big income for the economy.
 
Last edited:
Now, two questions arise:
What will Taiwan buy for its navy? Maybe 4 more Oliver Hazard Perry-class frigates?
What will Pakistan buy for its airforce?
Considering Taiwan in this world stayed with KMT instead of electing Chen Shui-bian, I wouldn't be surprised if they bought Type 052Cs. /s

I imagine in 2002 there's still some F-5s the U.S. can spare to send to Pakistan, especially was the War in Afghanistan is getting into its swing.
 
To be honest I never thought that my suggestion will be implemented. But since how this Indonesia have evolved I guess that’s make sense now (technically this Indonesia will be the first SEA nation to have a ship with powerful Air Defence capability since the Singaporeans have their Formidable class in 2007). Also a welcom surprise about the F-16 maybe in this TL President Try could help Air Force original plan to have up to 60 F-16 to reality. And good to see Try seems has an ambition at least to keep this Indonesia as “sejahtera” and to announce his want to be re elected rather then let them be under the former Presidents daughters. I hope though at the end he will not be Soeharto 2.0 (which obviously he is not from his decisions in the TL). And the commodity boom, that’s gonna be one heck of a big cash flow for Indonesia. Especially with other booming countries like Try said. Selling all of them commodities could be one big income for the economy.
I read in LKY's memoirs that Gus Dur said Soekarno gila perempuan, Soeharto gila uang, Habibie gila, titik.

Soeharto's kids can't do shit without Daddy's influence, while I think Try's kids were in army and in business on their own right. As his wife didn't have a competition with Imelda Marcos, I think we'll be just fine.

The only question now is if he can leverage that commodities boom like Jokowi is doing right now for nickel. No exports without considerable Indonesian value added.
 
Considering Taiwan in this world stayed with KMT instead of electing Chen Shui-bian, I wouldn't be surprised if they bought Type 052Cs. /s
Outright buying PRC warships? If this happens it will be a turning point in PRC-Taiwan relations since both would produce and use the same weapons. I don't think that it is plausible.
I imagine in 2002 there's still some F-5s the U.S. can spare to send to Pakistan, especially was the War in Afghanistan is getting into its swing.
Sure more F-5, maybe more Mirage 3 and more money diverted to the JF-17 program.
 
Last edited:
Installations = instalasi, angsuran = installments.
I stand corrected, Pak.

Australia will want to take advantage of the commodities boom since its the biggest coal exporter. How this will play with Indonesia demands? Remember that Australia is ambivalent, and probably will not want to make Indonesia stronger.

Papua New Guinea obviously is in Indonesia pocket, so its a safe source of commodities. The same can be said of Africa, obviously with the volume compensating for distance.
I can't wait to explore Australia's ambivalence in the TL. It's not an Indonesia-Aussie relationship without fireworks.

Basically with regards to Australia, PNG, and Oceania, Indonesia's geopolitical calculation's been outlined in Chapter 167 in the big meeting that happened there.

Regarding Pakistan, remember that it's not on the US Side when it comes to the War On Terror.

I hope though at the end he will not be Soeharto 2.0 (which obviously he is not from his decisions in the TL).
If you're an ITTL PNI supporter, he is Soeharto 2.0. To be exact they see him as Diet Soeharto.

Speaking of the end, there is an ending to this TL. Currently on my third version of ito_O.

The only question now is if he can leverage that commodities boom like Jokowi is doing right now for nickel. No exports without considerable Indonesian value added.
Brushing up on how SBY managed the commodities boom of the 2000s but the possibilities are interesting. If SBY, who gets a lot of criticism for not doing enough with the OTL commodities boom, can ride the boom to strong growth imagine the possibilities for Try.

Outright buying PRC warships? If this happens it will be a turning point in PRC-Taiwan relations since both would produce and use the same weapons. I don't think that it is that plausible.
I agree, it will not get to buying PRC warships. It's just the case that the current ITTL President of Taiwan James Soong want closer relations with the mainland.
 
Brushing up on how SBY managed the commodities boom of the 2000s but the possibilities are interesting. If SBY, who gets a lot of criticism for not doing enough with the OTL commodities boom, can ride the boom to strong growth imagine the possibilities for Try.
I think SBY while not a great president gets a lot of less-than-fair flak. In 2004 after Mega's insistence on the Rupiah being at 10k IDR devastated industry SBY's boring do-nothing presidency was a breath of fresh air. A lot of the scandals of his time like BLBI I feel has had its roots from before '98 and had to come out sometime. His stability was the stabilising launching pad needed for us to switch from rebuilding to expansion.
 
Mehhh Kidd Class although the armament capable to become air defence deterrent but the hull too old. Indonesia need ocean going warship with strong armament for air defence. Indonesia on this AU have great opportunity to expand economy and military better than OTL. i hope on this story TNI have only one standard for warship (Destroyer, Corvette, Frigate, LST, LPD, LHD, Supporr and Auxilary), military aircraft (Light Fighter, Medium Fighter,Heavy Fighter, Airlifter, Support Helicopter, Attack Helicopter), submarine, Tank ( APC, Medium Tank, Heavy Tank, Support), Truck, Radar, Firearms
 
The World Circa May 2002 Part 8: Africa Part 4
Central African Republic:
An attempted coup in May 2001 was foiled by by President Ange-Felix Patasse. Patasse managed to hold on backed by his loyalists in the Central African Republic Armed Forces and personnel sent from Libya by Brotherly Leader and Guide of the Revolution of Libya Muammar Gaddafi. In the aftermath of the coup, Patasse would strengthen his grip on the Central African Republic. By October 2001, he had arrested Army Chief of Staff Francois Bozize who had hitherto been loyal but whom he had been suspicious to.

Highlighted for special praise by Patasse during these months for their role in keeping Patasse in power were the Acehnese military personnel which Gaddafi had sent as part of the Libyan contingent. Gaddafi would also give praise to the Acehnese under his care, saying that they “needed the practice”.

Sudan:
It had been a turbulent few years for Sudan. 1998 saw the United States launch cruise missile attacks against Al Qaeda training camps in Sudan in retaliation for the attacks on its embassies in Tanzania and Kenya. 1999 saw President Omar al-Bashir oust his political rival Speaker of Parliament Hasan al-Turabi. A Sudanese Civil War meanwhile continued in the background.

Within the context of the New Cold War, Sudan would take its place as Russia and China’s most notable ally in Africa. Sudan being the recipient of American and United Nations sanctions, it was natural for al-Bashir to drift in Moscow and Beijing’s direction. By 1999, China had begun oil explorations in Sudan. Once Yevgeny Primakov had assumed office in August 2000, he began to send missions to intensify cooperations with Sudan both economic and military; the latter featuring the sale of weapons and exchange programs by officers of the two countries’ respective militaries. Meanwhile, Washington continued to maintain its sanctions even after the change of administrations in 2001. In the aftermath of 9/11, al-Bashir would be an enthusiastic proponent of Primakov’s exhortation to the Islamic world that Islamic nations are under no obligations to agree with all of the actions taken by the United States.

There was a streak of independence about al-Bashir, however. In late 2001, President Laurent Kabila of the Democratic Republic of Congo visited Khartoum and asked al-Bashir for Sudan to join the Second Congo War on the Democratic Republic of Congo’s side. Despite encouragement and subtle pressure from Russia and China, al-Bashir refused. Sudan’s relationship with Uganda, which was on the side seeking to topple Kabila, had been improving and it did not want that improvement to be jeopardized.

Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Somalia:
“We have just departed from Ethiopia. I think we had a good visit and Prime Minister [Zeles] Menawi is enthusiastic about the trade and commerce we are bringing to him. The Minister of Trade has made mention about Ethiopia’s population and that’s why we want to sell our fast-moving consumer goods to Ethiopia. I just want to add that Ethiopia is a test case if we want to sell our goods on this continent. Like it or not it’s a conflict-ridden continent. Ethiopia had just signed a peace treaty after a 2-year war with Eritrea though the tensions between the two countries are still there. What I am saying is that we need to be able to be comfortable with that risk and to be able to negotiate our way through these risks.

I’m glad that this has been a trade and economically-oriented visit. I didn’t really want to venture into Ethiopia’s continuing tense situation with Eritrea with Prime Minister Menawi but I believe that there is something from their experience we can learn. Eritrea was once part of Ethiopia and it had autonomy within Ethiopia. But then this autonomy was abolished and in part because of this, that Eritrea came to have a grievance with Ethiopia and ended up seceding in 1993.

In this regard, I feel that the decision our government took to give special region status to Irian Jaya and East Timor and then to outline what this special region status would entail in not only these two provinces but also in Aceh has been correct. I think combined with the direction our economy has been heading, the special status we have given to these provinces has helped to take the air out of those with secessionist and separatist sentiments. We should take care never to undo the arrangements that have been put in place.

There is Eritrea to Ethiopia’s north and Somalia to Ethiopia’s south. Somalia is governed by a Transitional National Government formed in May 2000 though their authority seemed ineffectual. Ethiopia’s stance is ambiguous and this had led to conflict. Ethiopia’s sent in troops into Somalian territory claiming that it was going after the militant Islamist group Al-Ittihad Islamiyah. On the other hand, the Transitional National Government claimed that Ethiopia is trying to increase its military presence in the nation and supporting warlords undermining the transitional government’s authority.

It’s a complicated and messy situation that hopefully never happens to us.”

Airplane Talks Vol. 1: Impromptu Talks Given By President Try Sutrisno While In Flight During State Visits

Djibouti:
Under the leadership of President Ismail Omar Guelleh, Djibouti completed a peace process which brought its civil war to a definitive end in May 2001.

The McCain Administration envisioned Djibouti playing the role that Sudan was playing for Russia and China; an ally in Africa for the New Cold War. In March 2001, Guelleh and United States Secretary of State Richard Williamson agreed to the establishment of a military base in Djibouti. Originally envisioned to be operational by mid-2003, the preparation was accelerated in the aftermath of 9/11 with Djibouti now seen as an ally on two fronts: the New Cold War and the War on Terror. By May 2002, Camp Lemmonier was completed, a military base that was to serve both as a base for United States operations in the War on Terror in the Horn of Africa and as a military base in Africa to anticipate and counter any effort by Russia to increase its influence in the continent.

Mauritania:
President Maaouya Ould Sid’Ahmed Taya caused a stir in the Islamic world when in October 1999, he established diplomatic relations with Israel. Over the next two years, Ould Taya came under attack domestically and from the Islamic world for this decision. The price for the decision was well worth it, the pressure to democratize from the Clinton Administration lessened even though the IMF kept up its pressure for economic reform and the McCain Administration saw Mauritania as a natural recruit to its camp both in the New Cold War and the War on Terror.

Good relations with the United States withstanding, it nevertheless in the Islamic world that Ould Taya wanted to look for allies. And in the months after 9/11, it became clear what that Islamic nation should be. Just as most of the Islamic world was getting settled into defining itself as “moderate”, this nation’s leader said in an internationally televised interview that he refused to be called a moderate because it implied he was on the same spectrum as those who perpetrated 9/11. Ould Taya watched amused as this nation leveraged its improving relations with Iran to stare down Saudi Arabia’s complaint that its educational institution in the country was kept under surveillance; perhaps establishing diplomatic relations with the largest Islamic nation in the world is a good place to start when it comes to looking for allies within the Islamic world.

Mali:
A nation hailed for being a model democracy, Mali found itself courted by the various poles. It received debt relief from the IMF and the World Bank, it received investment and aid from China, and it also received debt relief from France; keen to try to influence Mali as well. Ultimately Mali, a Muslim majority country, would share Russia’s sentiment that Islamic nations should not have to agree with all that the United States had done in the aftermath of 9/11. The 2002 Malian Presidential Election, while marking the final step in the transition of democracy also produced Ibrahim Boubacar Keita as its president-elect, due to assume office in June 2002. Keita had positioned himself as the religious candidate and haaving obtained the support of religious leaders in the lead up to the election.

Burkina Faso and Chad:
The invasion and occupation of his country forced President of Liberia Charles Taylor to turn to an old friend, Burkina Faso’s President Blaise Compaore for help in September 2001. Compaore readily gave it in the form of arms and it was enough to stop Guinea’s advance and turn the war into a stalemate. By the end of the year, Taylor visited Compaore again. The two old comrades came out of their discussion in agreement that Gaddafi’s assistance should be asked and Compaore promised to bring up the matter when visited Gaddafi.

Compaore visited Libya in February 2002 and among the many things which Compaore discussed with the colonel was Liberia’s request for aid in both soldiers and weapons. Gaddafi was willing to send soldiers to assist Liberia but seemed to be more cautious about sending arms, saying that he was saving that for “certain revolutionaries for their cause in the Indonesian archipelago”.

From Libya, Compaore visited Chad. Much as Compaore, President of Chad Idriss Deby had also owed his position to Gaddafi. The two Gaddafi proteges discussed various matters. On their diplomatic relationships with Taiwan, for example, the Compaore and Deby agreed that diplomatic relations, on account of the continuing aid and investment they received, should be maintained at least for another two years to see whether the current administration in Taiwan will be re-elected or not. If the current administration, which was in favor of closer relations with China was re-elected, there was no point in them avoiding a diplomatic relationship with China and missing out on the aid and investment that China was bringing to Africa.

But their discussion drifted back to Gaddafi. Gaddafi had in recent times mediated between the Chadian Government and the Movement for Democracy and Justice in Chad (MDJT), a rebel group wanting to overthrow Deby’s regime. With Gaddafi’s mediation an agreement had been signed but Deby professed feeling a little dissatisfied. The agreement had been favorable to the MDJT and Deby had asked for economic aid to the Tibesti region in the Chad-Libya Border as a sweetener. But Gaddafi had rejected it, because he needed the funds “for certain revolutionaries to advance their cause in the Indonesian archipelago”.

“He is really making a big deal out of this Indonesian project of his” said Deby “You were just there at Tripoli, what do you suppose he wants to do over in Indonesia?”

“From what I gather, it will involve the people and groups who want to secede from that country”, replied Compaore.

Niger:
“The argument made by Francis Fukuyama that the end of the Cold War marked the end of history and that liberal democracy will be the dominant form of government seems to have run aground by the end of 1999, at least in Africa. On this continent 1999 saw military regimes take power in Niger, Guinea-Bissau, and now the Ivory Coast.

The defining feature of all of these regimes is that they do not feel the inclination to begin a transfer of power to a civilian government or to hold elections. In their speeches and statements they have signalled that if a transfer of power or elections are held, it would be just means to the end of keeping them in power. In Niger, Chairman of the National Reconcilliation Council Daouda Malam Wanke said that he would not hold elections until he feels sufficient progress has been made on the economic front.

These developments would seem ominous were it not for the fact that by this time, with Prime Minister of Russia Yevgeny Primakov looking likely to become president of Russia in next year’s election. Far from reaching the End of History, we seem to have arrived at something else entirely”.

Editorial in The Economist’s Final Edition 1999 Issue
---
Whoa guess I did have the time to finish this one.

The Central African Republic experienced a coup attempt in OTL as well, the difference ITTL is the involvement of Acehnese personnel being sent by Gaddafi to help.

Can’t make the situation in Ethiopia, Eritrea, or Somalia any better but its OTL experiences are already bad enough as it is.

Sudan and Djibouti representing a return to the “taking sides” aspect of the Cold War. OTL US does have a military base in Djibouti but in ITTL this base is completed quicker.

As we progress further north in Africa we are starting to get a sense of what how the Islamic world is reacting to 9/11. You have nations such as Mauritania, unpopular for being a fresh and recent addition to the list of Islamic countries who recognized Israel (both in OTL and ITTL) and for clamping down on Islamism at home seing Indonesia as a natural ally. But you also have Sudan and Mali buying into what Primakov is saying ITTL about the Islamic world not having to completely agree with everything the United States has done.

I don’t want to link it too directly to Indonesia not joining the ranks of democratic countries because of not having experienced May 1998, I felt that it somehow made sense that there would be more military rulers during these period who end up managing to stay in power whether through elections or other means rather than holding elections and giving up the reins of power.

And now we are down to our final five African countries: Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Egypt and of course…Libya! What does Libya have in store for Indonesia? What’s going to happen when Timor Leste’s Xanana Gusmao, who has been travelling north throughout these Africa updates, gets there?
 
Taiwan can buy Chinese Hull for warship but the armament can be from US or Europe. Same case with Naresuan Class.
Taiwan buying any military equipment from the PRC and the latter agreeing to sell it is out of the question. Both countries don't formally recognize each other and are blocked in a "cold war" since the 1950s. Taiwan is likely going to buy some warships from South Korea (maybe even Indonesia) or to build them themselves.
 
Last edited:
Taiwan buying any military equipment from the PRC and the latter agreeing to sell it is out of the question. Both countries don't formally recognize each other and are blocked in the "cold war" since the 1950s. Taiwan is likely going to buy some warships from South Korea (maybe even Indonesia) or to build them themselves.
I just try to compromise for comment above about Taiwan acquire PRC weaponry. The most sensible think is buy hull for warship but armament from western block. Well if the relationship still bad they can still acquire warship from SK or continue from French.
 
I just try to compromise for comment above about Taiwan acquire PRC weaponry. The most sensible think is buy hull for warship but armament from western block. Well if the relationship still bad they can still acquire warship from SK or continue from French.
Well your compromise isn't possible. Top of the line western equipment is not going to be sent to PRC to be fitted at the moment. No ROC government even those that are friendly to the mainland is going to buy PRC vessels with PRC knowing all potential weaknesses. Thailand example is not valid as neither is Thailand as close to the US as ROC nor does it face an existential threat from PRC. ROC buying PRC ships is near ASB. It would also destroy the special relationship that exists with US and end all their top of the line weapon purchases and additionally it puts the problem of PRC selling weapons to a "rebellious province" to the forefront.

@GSD310 Why is Gaddafi so obsessed with Indonesia? What has Indonesia done to him that he is willing to ignore problems closer to home so that he can focus on Indonesia? Isn't East Timor at peace for quite sometime? Gusmao would surely have a tough time making people go back from stability.
 
@GSD310 Why is Gaddafi so obsessed with Indonesia? What has Indonesia done to him that he is willing to ignore problems closer to home so that he can focus on Indonesia? Isn't East Timor at peace for quite sometime? Gusmao would surely have a tough time making people go back from stability.
What i see is Gaddafi trying to take the lead as the top guy in the islamic world.
 
Top